Following last week’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) scenarios for 2021, join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the CCAR scenarios.
The group will also consider the stress test scenarios recently released by Prudential Regulatory Authority in the U.K. and European Bank Authority in the European Union.
Our experts will answer key questions, including:
• How severe are the stress test scenarios?
• Are the scenarios internally consistent?
• What are possible narratives driving the scenarios?
• How do this year’s scenarios compare with last year’s?
• How do the Fed, PRA, and EBA scenarios compare with each other?
The U.S. economy is booming and near-term prospects have rarely been as strong.
We assess the macroeconomic consequences of the AFP in this white paper, and find that while its near-term impacts are small, it provides meaningful longer-term economic benefits by increasing labor force participation and the educational attainment of the population.
High-yield corporate bond issuance had a strong start to the year, due to growing expectations for the U.S. economy to take off coupled with tight credit spreads and less perceived credit risk.
Low-income and minority households are struggling to make their rent and mortgage payments, suffering through increasingly long commutes, and unable to take better jobs because they cannot afford housing near the available work. The American Housing and Economic Mobility Act would help to address these problems.
There are many potential political impediments to passage of the American Jobs Plan, but we expect that an infrastructure plan similar in spirit and size to what the president has proposed will become law later this year.
The secular decline by Treasury bond yields since 1982 has been accompanied by a secular climb in the ratio of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt to GDP.
High yield bond issuance and newly rated loans from high-yield issuers have soared thus far in 2021.
Monetary and fiscal stimuli seem to be surfacing here, there, and everywhere.
Policymakers must tackle a host of challenges outside the traditional reach of housing policy—in trade, immigration, education, taxes and even municipal decision-making.
Weekly Market Outlook: Real GDP Growth's Biggest Improvement since 1950 May Power 2021's Profits Growth
Each noteworthy deterioration of U.S. corporate credit quality since 1982 was accompanied by a significant contraction of yearlong core pretax profits, where the latter is supplied by the National Income Product Accounts of the U.S.