Following last week’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) scenarios for 2021, join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the CCAR scenarios.
The group will also consider the stress test scenarios recently released by Prudential Regulatory Authority in the U.K. and European Bank Authority in the European Union.
Our experts will answer key questions, including:
• How severe are the stress test scenarios?
• Are the scenarios internally consistent?
• What are possible narratives driving the scenarios?
• How do this year’s scenarios compare with last year’s?
• How do the Fed, PRA, and EBA scenarios compare with each other?
September's consumer price index, as Moody's Analytics expected, showed a 0.4% monthly increase that held the annual inflation rate at 3.7%.
U.S. retail sales continue to grow at a modest pace that is barely keeping up with inflation.
The Federal Open Market Committee softened its tone in May's post-meeting statement, a sentiment reinforced within the FOMC meeting minutes.
The Treasury debt limit drama is fast approaching its finale. Congress and the Biden administration have no more than a month before the Treasury runs out of enough cash to pay all of the government's bills on time. Here, we update our analysis of two alternative scenarios that bookend the economic impact if lawmakers do not act in time and there is a breach of the limit.
The political drama over the Treasury debt limit is suddenly heating up.
Surging interest rates coupled with an increased share of fixed-rate securities over the past year have made many banks vulnerable to evaporating deposits and duration risk.
Minutes from March's Federal Open Market Committee meeting show Federal Reserve policymakers' confidence in the soundness of the financial system.
The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank precipitated a sudden loss of confidence in the banking system, prompting bank runs, and forcing the U.S. government to provide extraordinary support to the system.
Fiscal policy since the COVID-19 pandemic hit three years ago has been critical in supporting the U.S. economy's quick and full revival.
Recent U.S. bank failures are disconcerting to watch, but they are not symptomatic of a serious broader problem in the financial system.