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Moody's Analytics Insights

Article
illuminated stock market numbers

Weekly Market Outlook: Medium-Grade's Worry Differs from High-Yield's Complacency

The investment-grade bond market appears more anxious about the future than the high-yield bond market. A now well above-trend Baa industrial company bond yield spread warns of a wider high-yield bond spread. To the contrary, a trend-like high-yield spread favors a thinner Baa spread. In all likelihood, if the still positive outlook for profits holds, the high-yield bond spread will prove to be more prescient than the now swollen Baa spread.

December 2018
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Kristopher Cramer,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Whitepaper
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Sovereign & Size-Adjusted EDF-Implied Rating Template (for Private Firms)

RiskCalc™ EDF™ (Expected Default Frequency) values and agency ratings are widely used credit risk measures. RiskCalc EDF values typically measure default risk for private companies, while agency ratings are only available for rated companies. A RiskCalc EDF value measures a company's standalone credit risk based on financial statement information, while an agency rating considers qualitative factors such as Business Profile, Financial Policy, external support, and country-related risks. Moody's Analytics new Sovereign & Size-Adjusted EDF-Implied Rating Template combines RiskCalc EDF values with additional factors to provide a rating comparable to agency ratings for private companies. The new template applies to RiskCalc EDF values across numerous geographies and regulatory environments. With the new template, users can generate a rating more comparable to an agency rating than RiskCalc EDF values or EDF-implied ratings. Analyzing data from 3,900+ companies in 60+ countries, we find that sovereign rating and total asset size, in addition to EDF value, have a statistically significant impact on an agency rating — our quantitative template incorporating these three variables reliably estimates agency ratings in a robust fashion.

December 2018
Maria Buitrago, Uliana Makarov,  Dr. Janet ZhaoDr. Douglas Dwyer

Article
 Merton Model Schematic

A Cost of Capital Approach to Estimating Credit Risk Premia

This research paper discusses the credit risk premium adjustment required for constructing discount rates specified by the IFRS 17 accounting rules. Calculating the credit risk premium is a key requirement in the ‘top down' yield curve method. It may also be a useful input in computing (or benchmarking) the illiquidity premium for ‘bottom up' discount rate construction.

December 2018
Nick Jessop

Article
illuminated stock market numbers

Slower Growth amid High Leverage Lessens Upside for Interest Rates

Both the sell-off of equities and the very limited and slight inversion of the Treasury yield curve at the three- and five-year maturities hint of a possible pause for the latest series of Fed rate hikes. Since September 26's last hiking of fed funds to 2.125%, the 10-year Treasury yield has dropped from 3.05% to a recent 2.87%, and the five-year Treasury yield has sunk from 2.95% to 2.74%.

December 2018
John Lonski,  Ryan Sweet, Katrina Ell, Yukyung Choi, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez

Article

At a Crossroads: China Taps the Accelerator

With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.

December 2018
Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Article
Color Rope

Gauging CECL Cyclicality

In this paper, we provide empirical support for the conclusion that the CECL standard will be less procyclical than the incurred loss standard.

December 2018
Mark Zandi,  Dr. Cristian deRitis

Article

CECL Survey

We asked attendees of the 2018 Moody's Analytics Summit their thoughts on four key questions in preparation for the new standard.

November 2018

Webinar-on-Demand
Business and financial report

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Middle East Outlook – Amidst Uncertainty

In this webinar replay, Moody's Analytics economists discuss the Middle East's macro outlook and analyze economic prospects of MENA oil exporters and importers.

November 2018

Article
Profit Emergence under IFRS 17

Profit Emergence under IFRS 17 - VFA

Steven Morrison's second whitepaper, Profit Emergence under IFRS 17, turns its attention to the Variable Fee Approach (VFA). Explore his practical insights on financial risk and its impact on contracts with participation features.

November 2018

Whitepaper
Global strategy solution concept - earth jigsaw puzzle

Regulatory Big Data: Meeting the Costs & Challenges of Granular Reporting

This whitepaper discusses the challenges of transactional reporting.

November 2018

Whitepaper
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Identifying At-Risk Names in Your Private Firm Portfolio — RiskCalc Early Warning Toolkit

This report outlines a practical approach for using RiskCalc EDF credit measures to effectively monitor large portfolios of private firms and to proactively identify at-risk names. The RiskCalc Early Warning Toolkit Excel add-in is an easy to use, yet comprehensive tool that allows users to focus costly and scarce resources on a highly targeted selection of the most at-risk names in their portfolios. This research for private firms compliments previous research on Early Warning Toolkit for public firms. The Early Warning Toolkit identifies at-risk names within a private firm portfolio well before default, using a number of different EDF-related risk metrics.

November 2018
Ziyi Sun,  Dr. Janet Zhao, Gustavo Jimenez

FAQ

CECL Roundtable FAQs

An open dialogue around economic forecasting techniques for calculating life-of-loan expected credit losses.

November 2018