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Moody's Analytics Insights

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Will Cut Rates If 10-Year Yield Breaks Under 2.4%

The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection.

March 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2019

América Latina se encamina a su segundo año de recuperación en el 2019, con una mejoría más generalizada a nivel de países.

March 2019

Article
illuminated stock market numbers

Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

March 2019

Article
Graphic of financial indicators

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019
Steven CochraneKatrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana

Article
Image of city buildings and sky

Weekly Market Outlook: Riskier Outlook May Slow Corporate Debt Growth in 2019

The latest version of the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States” was released on March 7. As of 2018's final quarter, the total outstandings of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt grew by 5.1% year-to-year to a record high $51.796 trillion.

March 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
Graphic of successful business charts

Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019

Whitepaper
Image of business people's hands holding and looking at printed charts and graphs

Toward SCCL Compliance: Key Implementation Challenges

This whitepaper focuses on the main challenges for SCCL compliance, and offers a hypothetical SCCL solution, while discussing strategic and tactical considerations.

March 2019

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Weekly Market Outlook: Replay of Late 1998's Drop by Interest Rates May Materialize

Weakness abroad and a faltering demand for U.S. output now put downward pressure on both earnings-sensitive securities' prices and benchmark Treasury yields. The equity and high-yield credit rallies will be put on hold until the earnings outlook stabilizes.

March 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Article
illuminated charts and graphs

Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

March 2019

Article
Risk Adjustment

Aggregation and diversification of the IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment

IFRS 17 introduces the concept of a risk adjustment for non-financial risk. The IFRS 17 risk adjustment is an influential factor in how profit from insurance contracts is reported and emerges over time.

March 2019
Cassandra Hannibal

Article
Federal building columns

Weekly Market Outlook: Moody's Yield Averages Enter Their 100th Year

Two milestones will be arrived at in 2019. First, but not necessarily the foremost, Moody's corporate bond yield averages will record their 100th anniversary in 2019.

February 2019
John Lonski, Yukyung Choi,  Katrina EllSteven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Listen as Moody's Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax. Key topics include:

February 2019
Scott Hoyt,  Dr. Deniz Tudor