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    Weekly Market Outlook: Ample Liquidity Shores Up Investment-Grade Credits

    Investment-grade corporations have rushed to boost their liquidity through the issuance of longer-term fixed-rate corporate bonds.

    April 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    What the Stimulus Can Do

    The need is great because affected U.S. workers are concentrated in industries paying the lowest wages.

    March 2020 Pdf Sophia Koropeckyj, Dante DeAntonio

    Peru's Central Bank Joins the Rate-Cutting Bandwagon

    Monetary policy alone will be insufficient to temper an economic stall-out.

    March 2020 Pdf

    Banks' IFRS 9 provisions to face first challenge with COVID-19

    Many banks went live with their models and systems for IFRS 9 provisioning more than two years ago. Now, the new accounting standard and the banks' implemented methods to comply with it will face their first serious challenge following the global outbreak of Coronavirus (COVID-19).

    March 2020 Pdf

    Weekly Market Outlook: Unlike 2008-2009, Few Speak of a Credit Crunch

    Financial markets have recovered in response to massive doses of monetary and fiscal stimulus.

    March 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Michael Ferlez, Ryan Sweet

    COVID-19: Global Recession Q&A

    We answer questions submitted in response to our recent webinar.

    CECL and IFRS 9 Recommendations: Handling Shifting Economic Scenarios

    In light of the COVID-19 crisis, we are providing guidance regarding shifts in the distribution of possible economic outcomes. Ideally, IFRS 9 and CECL...

    March 2020 Pdf Cristian deRitis

    COVID-19: Global Economic Tsunami

    The onus is now on governments to quickly provide substantial financial support to hard-pressed households and businesses. How much economic damage COVID-19 ultimately does will depend on the trajectory of the virus—and how governments respond.

    March 2020 Pdf Mark Zandi

    Tax Day Changes in U.S. Could Spell Trouble in Muniland

    The most recent Fed move is not enough to guarantee liquidity for all issuers. Fiscal policymakers need to step in.

    March 2020 Pdf Dan White

    Coronavirus (COVID-19): Credit Risk Impact on Commercial Real Estate Loan Portfolios

    This study takes a scenario analysis approach and dissects the credit risk impact on financial institutions' commercial real estate (CRE) loan portfolios under various COVID-19 scenarios.

    March 2020 Pdf Eric Bao, Dr. Jun Chen, Wenjing Wang, Arka Kundu, Junrong Liu

    Weekly Market Outlook: Equity Market Volatility Resembles 2008's Final Quarter

    From the perspective of the U.S. equity market, COVID-19 is the worst natural disaster ever. After

    March 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

    Egypt's Interest Rate Play

    The Central Bank of Egypt announced its biggest rate cut on record and changes our outlook for the nation. This drastic rate cut comes with risks and rewards.

    March 2020 Pdf Brendan Meighan

    Brazil, Late to Impose Emergency Measures, Faces a Crisis Wide and Deep

    Almost every sector of Brazil's economy will be hit hard by the abrupt decline in global economic activity, from agriculture and manufacturing to transportation and energy.

    March 2020 Pdf

    Bravo to the ECB

    The ECB will do whatever it takes to contain borrowing costs—this is especially relevant for the southern European countries—to allow euro zone governments to spend as much as they want on their fiscal response to the COVID-19 crisis.

    March 2020 Pdf Barbara Teixeira Araujo

    COVID-19 Delivers a Punch to the U.S. Labor Market

    Initial jobless claims jumped, but the big surge is still to come.

    March 2020 Pdf Ryan Sweet

    Munis Holding Up Better Than Most Amid COVID-19 Crisis

    The flurry of financial market activity this week has done some interesting things in the municipal bond market, and not everyone is coming out a winner.

    March 2020 Pdf Dan White

    Recession-Like VIX Favors Higher Equity Market 12 Months From Now

    With no end in sight, the market value of U.S. common stock plunged by 5.85%.

    March 2020 Pdf John Lonski

    COVID-19 Will Extend Argentina's Recession

    Government measures taken to slow the rate of transmission will hinder economic growth in the near term. Yet the major long-term impact could come from the effect the outbreak is having on financial markets.

    March 2020 Pdf

    Virus Alters U.S. Consumer Spending

    Real-time information on consumer spending is very limited, but there is growing evidence of some of the changes to consumer spending in response to COVID-19.

    March 2020 Pdf Scott Hoyt

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    Highly Commended for Best Emerging Markets Paper in the 2019 Savvy Investor Awards, this paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    March 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Jesse Rogers

    Panic, Volatility, and CRE Finance & Transaction Markets

    Volatility has risen significantly in financial markets, driven by COVID-19. How might this affect US multifamily and commercial real estate (CRE) transaction markets? What are the mechanisms through which panic and a flight to safety will hurt some markets but benefit some players?

    Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield's Default Risk Metrics Still Trail Worst Stretch of Great Recession

    A March madness of a different sort continues. As of the afternoon of March 12, the market value of U.S. common stock was a deep 26% under its close of January 17, 2020, or the last trading day before COVID-19 first rattled U.S. financial markets.

    March 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    The Economics of Wholesale Credit

    Traditionally, corporate trade credit limits have been set based on customer size, an internal or external credit score, and a qualitative sense of risk appetite. These limits have been effective in minimizing write-offs, principally because they are conservative.

    March 2020 WebPage Michael Denton , Laurent Birade, Gustavo Jimenez

    Weekly Market Outlook: Ultra-Low Treasury Yields and Very High VIX Warn of Credit Stress Ahead

    The longer negative sentiment dominates the financial markets, the greater is the danger the loss of confidence will spread to businesses and consumers.

    March 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Coronavirus: COVID-19 Pandemic Scenario Narrative: Known Unknowns

    The coronavirus is an existential threat to the record-long global economic expansion. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it is likely that COVID-19 will become a global pandemic. If the CDC's warning comes to pass, then recession will be difficult to avoid.

    March 2020 Pdf Mark Zandi

    The Possible Effect of COVID-19 on US Multifamily and Commercial Real Estate

    Given the uncertainty surrounding COVID-19, how should we think properly and carefully about its effect on US multifamily and commercial real estate?

    March 2020 Pdf

    Korea Takes a Different Approach to COVID-19 Threat

    Outside of China, South Korea has the largest number of reported cases of COVID-19 infections. The rapid spread of the disease has caused the country to think differently about combating the threat.

    February 2020 Pdf Steven Cochrane

    Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Rate Cuts May Fall Short of Stabilizing Markets

    Markets are trying to “price-in” an event for which there is no readily known precedent. Volatility will rule until COVID-19-related risks reverse course.

    February 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Michael Ferlez

    Managing Financial Risk in a Changing Climate Landscape

    Where do we stand today and how can financial institutions prepare for this changing climate landscape?

    February 2020 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury

    Moody's Analytics Wins ERM End-to-End Solution of the Year

    End-to-end risk modelling solutions have developed from a need among insurers to have a quick, accurate and reliable understanding of their enterprise risk and solvency positions.

    February 2020 WebPage
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