Moody's Analytics Articles
After shrinking by 0.6% year over year during January-September 2019, yearlong 2019's core after-tax profits may be unchanged annually, at best.
One benefit CECL will bring to the accounting space is moving away from the complicated and burdensome accounting for Purchase Credit Impaired (PCI) assets.
Recent CECL impact disclosures point directly to credit cards as the largest driver of the allowance. We can confirm those recent disclosures by looking at the consumer default volumes chart in Figure 1,which clearly point to the credit card segment as being one of the largest contributors of loss today.
The impending Phase One trade agreement between the U.S. and China has delivered more questions than answers. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative posted a two-page fact sheet on December 13 detailing the pending agreement in general terms but provided few details.
An overvalued equity market increases the risk of a deep sell-off of equities that will damage corporate credit.
Asia as a region has attracted the largest share of global FDI flows since 2017 and despite the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, the region is well positioned to continue being the top destination for foreign investments in the years ahead.
High-yield bonds have rallied mightily despite the lack of any observable broad-based acceleration of either business sales or corporate earnings
Some recent public disclosures by institutions indicate that some lenders are evaluating electing fair value accounting, also known as the fair value option, or FVO, in lieu of applying the Current Expected Credit Losses standard.
Moody's Analytics' RiskIntegrity Suite is an end-to-end regulatory risk and solvency solution with out-of-the box Solvency II standard formula and internal model capabilities.
Following Jerome Powell's testimony of December 11, Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield fell to 3.98%, which was its lowest close since the 3.95% of August 28, 2019.
Using multiple scenarios in CECL can temper some of the volatility in the economic forecasts – the part that results from our inability to forecast the economy with complete precision.
More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.
Auto retention values were not immune to the slowdown in the U.S. economy in the third quarter. Wholesale used-vehicle value retention dropped 1.7% in September on a year-over year basis. This at a time when U.S. economic growth slowed from 3% a year earlier to about 2%
U.S. business activity has not been exceeding its reach, and that will help extend the long-lived bull market and record-long economic recovery.
Our findings conclude that the recent rent regulations passed in three states will likely not have a material impact on supply growth – for either affordable housing or for market-rate apartments. This means that landlords and investors concerned with market-rate apartments are not likely to change investment or development behavior.
We look at climate risk and consider how a heating planet might impact a bank's performance
For January-October 2019, the corporate bond issuance by U.S. based businesses grew by 12.4% year over year to $871.0 billion for investment-grade obligations and increased by 15.2% annually to $186.5 billion for high-yield offerings.
The market value of U.S. common stock has been setting new record highs. However, U.S. corporate credit spreads for both bonds and loans have yet to approach their lows of the current business cycle upturn, never mind their existing record lows.
The dreaded inverted yield curve is gone, but perhaps not for long. Following October 30's paring of the federal funds rate's midpoint to 1.625%, the fed funds rate is less than the recent 1.68% 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since May 2019.
The credit rating revisions of loan-only high-yield issuers reveal a higher frequency of rating downgrades compared to issuers with outstanding high-yield bonds.
The Opportunity Zone (OZ) program offers substantial federal tax incentives in exchange for capital investment in under-resourced areas. This creates challenges for investors, policymakers and other stakeholders when trying to evaluate the more than 8,700 Opportunity Zones in their entirety. In this paper, we leverage our opportunity zones
There is no one way of statistically explaining the bond yield spreads of high-yield corporate bonds. However, one of the better approaches employs a multi-variable regression model and generates a highly significant adjusted r-square statistic of 0.89.
The economy may not be top of mind for voters in every election, but it is hardly ever further than a close second. This is the principle underpinning Moody's Analytics presidential election models.
Canada's housing market seems on course for a soft landing given the lack of deterioration in mortgage debt arrears so far.
When banks manage risk, conservatism is a virtue. We, as citizens, want banks to hold slightly more capital than strictly necessary and to make, at the margin, more provisions for potential loan losses. Moreover, we want them to be generally cautious in their underwriting. But what is the best way to arrive at these conservative calculations?
Financial markets have been buffeted by changing views regarding the trade dispute between China and the United States. Nevertheless, the direction taken by earnings-sensitive securities will ultimately be determined by the outlook for profits.
Despite today's ultra-low yields, Treasury bonds may still pay off handsomely once recession strikes.
Despite risks to the downside, the country will remain one of the world's fastest-growing economies.
Nothing quite increases the risk of debt repayment like a drop in the income that funds the servicing of outstanding debt.
High levels of foreign direct investment lower the risk of corporate leverage.