Beijing's easing measures will help temper the economic growth slowdown in 2019.
Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.
The U.S. economy has weakened in early 2019, fanning concerns that the expansion is running out of steam. However, a number of factors that are contributing to this apparent downshift are temporary.
Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.
The credit ratings distribution of outstanding U.S. high-yield corporate bond debt and the distribution of high-yield credit rating revisions now deliver conflicting messages regarding the high-yield default rate's likely direction.
América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.
The faster growth of nonfinancial-corporate debt relative to both nominal GDP and the group's core pretax profits has been offset by the comparatively slow growth of net interest expense.
Recession fears abound yet the prices of earnings-sensitive securities and industrial commodities have held up reasonably well. Indicators of financial distress have yet to warn of sharply lower share prices and a surge in corporate debt defaults. Apparently markets are confident in the remedial powers of lower interest rates.
While many institutions are currently in the throes of implementing the current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting standard, some are thinking ahead and some that are not. CECL will have an unavoidable impact on management disclosures, specifically around explaining period-over-period changes in allowance.
The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection.
We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.
Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.
The latest version of the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States” was released on March 7. As of 2018's final quarter, the total outstandings of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt grew by 5.1% year-to-year to a record high $51.796 trillion.
Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.
Weakness abroad and a faltering demand for U.S. output now put downward pressure on both earnings-sensitive securities' prices and benchmark Treasury yields. The equity and high-yield credit rallies will be put on hold until the earnings outlook stabilizes.
The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.
IFRS 17 introduces the concept of a risk adjustment for non-financial risk. The IFRS 17 risk adjustment is an influential factor in how profit from insurance contracts is reported and emerges over time.
Two milestones will be arrived at in 2019. First, but not necessarily the foremost, Moody's corporate bond yield averages will record their 100th anniversary in 2019.
We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.
High-yield bonds have led the credit market in total return thus far in 2019. After soaring from 6.32% at the end of September to 8.06% by year-end 2018, a composite speculative-grade bond yield has dropped to February 20's 6.79%.
In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt rose to a record high 46.0% of GDP as of the span-ended September 2018. Nonfinancial corporate debt's 6.4% year-over-year increase for the 12-months-ended September 2018 outran nominal GDP's comparably measured rise of 5.0%.
The Canadian housing market is going through a period of decompression
Applying the Fed's latest CCAR parameters, the region's recessions would be deeper than in the U.S.
Latin American countries have a shaky history when it comes to stable foreign exchange. Several countries are facing economic and political upheaval, which may significantly impact the value of their currencies. Using the Moody's Analytics Currency Depreciation Indicator, we evaluate the coming year for 15 Latin American countries.
Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.
Notwithstanding January's bigger-than-expected addition to payrolls, the futures market recently assigned a mere 3% probability to a hiking of fed funds at any point in 2019.
International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 introduced a new accounting standard for financial instruments when it came into effect in January 2018. Taking first place for helping customers solve challenges around IFRS 9 is Moody's Analytics, winner of the inaugural RiskTech100 ® IFRS 9 award.
In a post-Basel market, succeeding with balance sheet risk management is crucial for avoiding holding excessive capital returns and missing out on revenue-generating opportunities. The vendors servicing this market are on a mission to help firms centralize
Winning a game of chess requires strategy and tactics, seeing where the game will go next and making deft, skilful moves accordingly. The winners in the RiskTech100 ® awards are vendors thinking like grand masters, succeeding with decision-making and looking into the future to unlock opportunities.
As high ranking Federal Reserve officials reiterated many times earlier, monetary policy is not on a preset course.