We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.
Both the corporate bond and equity markets responded positively to the latest drop by Treasury bond yields and the likelihood of at least two reductions of the federal funds rate during the remainder of 2019.
President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.
According to the Federal Reserve's “Financial Stability Report” of May 2019, not only has the outstanding debt of nonfinancial businesses outpaced nominal GDP during the past 10 years (or since 2008), but the growth of debt has been skewed toward riskier firms.
New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.
The Federal Reserve have released its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Listen as Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis discuss the narratives behind the Fed's scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.