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Moody's Analytics Insights

Article

At a Crossroads: China Taps the Accelerator

With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.

December 2018
Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Webinar-on-Demand
Business and financial report

Moody's Analytics Webinar: No Brexit to No Deal

The Brexit saga is quickly coming to a head, but it is increasingly unclear which direction it is headed.

October 2018
Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark Zandi

Webinar-on-Demand
Red pencil standing out from crowd of identical black pencils

Identifying At-Risk Firms in Your Private Firm Portfolio

Identifying At-Risk Firms in Your Private Firm Portfolio

October 2018
Dr. Douglas Dwyer, Gustavo Jimenez , Ziyi Sun

Article

CECL Impact on Credit Loss Allowances for U.S. Auto Loans

This paper examines the impact of adopting current expected credit loss (CECL) standards for U.S. auto lenders. We use a dataset of national retail auto loans to illustrate potential changes in model-based allowances across the industry. Our analysis shows that on the first day of CECL adoption, loss allowances for U.S. auto lenders could increase by as much as 1.5 to 2.5 times the current allowances.

September 2018
Moody's Analytics

Webinar-on-Demand
Business and financial report

Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

June 2018
Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins

Article
Map, Andean economies hurt the most

The Venezuela Crisis and Consequences for South America

This paper assesses the economic consequences for Venezuela and the rest of South America if Maduro serves out his new presidential term, and if he is cast from office.

June 2018
Marisa DiNatale

Webinar-on-Demand
Business and financial report

President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 2018
Mark Zandi,  Dr. Cristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale

Webinar-on-Demand
Stock market graph

Economic Consequences of Republican Tax Legislation

In this webinar, we assess the implications of the imminent change, with a focus on who benefits most and who is likely to be hurt. The discussion entails a look at both the national effects and the regional implications.

December 2017
Chris Lafakis, Adam Kamins, Dan White, Mark Zandi

Article
Idea concept with row of light bulbs

Modeling and Forecasting Interest Rate Swap Spreads

In this article, we model and forecast the term structure of swap spreads across a range of currencies using a principle component decomposition.

October 2017

Article
Green apple cutting in the shape of pie chart on back board

Stressed Realized LGDs: Forecasting Recovery Rates under Alternative Macroeconomic Scenarios

This article proposes a method of modeling realized losses given default (LGDs) as a function of macroeconomic drivers for stress testing purposes.

October 2017

Webinar-on-Demand
Business and financial report

Subprime Auto Credit: Navigating Risks on the Horizon

Auto lending is following a natural and expected credit cycle. Subprime performance will get better as credit tightens. Nonbank auto financiers are facing the highest loss rates when lending to low-income, subprime borrowers. Residual value pressures should begin to abate but will likely increase for trucks and SUVs.

August 2017