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    Scenario Studio Kitchen: Cooking up a Debt Crisis

    This webinar features a live demonstration in Scenario Studio of the recently released Emerging Market Sovereign Debt Crisis Scenario.

    The session will review the main scenario assumptions, detail the key variables used in its construction, and discuss how to think about debt dynamics in the context of the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model. The step-by-step guide will offer helpful pointers for Scenario Studio beginners and veterans alike. 

    Join Brendan LaCerda, Senior Economist, and Jesse Rogers, Economist for this insightful webinar. 

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    Headline monthly inflation in August was the strongest since June 2022, and core inflation surprised to upside.

    September 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Alfredo Coutiño, Jesse Rogers, Bernard Yaros

    Weekly Market Outlook: Looking Good, So Far

    The Moody's Analytics high-frequency GDP estimate for the U.S. third quarter rose with the latest data on consumer spending and inflation

    August 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Katrina Ell, Michael Brisson, Alfredo Coutiño, Olga Bychkova, Jesse Rogers

    Weekly Market Outlook: Inflation Meets Expectations

    The U.S. consumer price index for July carries limited monetary policy implications, as we believe the Federal Reserve is done with interest-rate hikes for the current tightening cycle.

    August 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Matt Colyar, Katrina Ell, Jesse Rogers

    Weekly Market Outlook: Second-Quarter GDP Impresses

    U.S. GDP rose a healthy 2.4% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' advance estimate.

    July 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Dave Chia, Michael Brisson, Katrina Ell, Jesse Rogers, Steven Shields

    Weekly Market Outlook: Talking Tough

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell continued to fuel expectations for higher interest rates.

    June 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Katrina Ell, Olga Bychkova, Kyle Hillman, Jesse Rogers

    Weekly Market Outlook: Still Open for Business

    The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report showed openings falling again but continues to signal a significant amount of excess demand in the labor market.

    March 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Jesse Rogers, Steven Shields

    Weekly Market Outlook: U.S. Budget Reconciliation Endgame

    In an unexpected turn of events, Senator Joe Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer reached an agreement Wednesday on a bill that would tackle climate change, healthcare coverage and tax reform.

    July 2022 Pdf Bernard Yaros, Katrina Ell, Jesse Rogers, Marisa DiNatale, Steven Shields

    Weekly Market Outlook: Aggressive Now, Pause Later

    The minutes from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee show the central bank is worried that if it doesn't aggressively remove monetary policy accommodation, inflation could become entrenched

    July 2022 Pdf Ryan Sweet, Katrina Ell, Stefan Angrick, Jesse Rogers, Steven Shields

    The Russia-Ukraine Military Conflict: Two Possible Scenarios

    As Russian troops invade Ukraine, we use two scenarios to examine the potential implications for the global economy.

    March 2022 Pdf Jesse Rogers

    Hitting Ground Floor: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    This paper considers the consequences of a property market collapse in China for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    January 2022 Pdf Jesse Rogers, Steven Cochrane
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