Featured Product

    Katrina Ell

    Sydney-based economist responsible for research and analysis of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region, as well as management of the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com.

    Katrina Ell, an economist based in Sydney, manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for economic research, analysis and forecasting of countries throughout the region. Katrina joined Moody’s Analytics in 2010 and is quoted frequently in international media, including CNBC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. Previously, she was an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. .

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Forecasts

    Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Research

    Economic Research: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic analysis to help clients understand key economic drivers across all geographic levels.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Scenarios

    Economic Scenarios: Moody's Analytics provides internally and globally consistent economic, regulatory, and custom scenarios.


    Economic Forecasts: Forecasts potential economic outcomes on the performance of businesses and investments.

    Economic Risk Assessment: Quantitative economic assessment to help you understand the impact of forward-looking changes on the performance of your business and portfolios.

    Econometric Modeling: Fully transparent econometric and statistical models to assess performance of geographies, financials and various asset classes.

    Published Work

    Weekly Market Outlook: Worsened Fundamentals Lift Downgrades Well Above Upgrades

    Financial markets have been buffeted by changing views regarding the trade dispute between China and the United States. Nevertheless, the direction taken by earnings-sensitive securities will ultimately be determined by the outlook for profits.

    October 2019

    Weekly Market Outlook: Next Recession May Lower 10-year Treasury Yield to Range of 0.5% to 1%

    Despite today's ultra-low yields, Treasury bonds may still pay off handsomely once recession strikes.

    October 2019

    The Next Recession - APAC Edition

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    September 2019

    Weekly Market Outlook: Abundant Liquidity Suppresses Defaults

    Nothing quite increases the risk of debt repayment like a drop in the income that funds the servicing of outstanding debt.

    September 2019

    Weekly Market Outlook: Cheap Money in Action

    The corporate bond market has proven to be resilient amid recent equity market volatility. Moreover, despite a slew of bearish headlines, the market value of U.S. common stock's latest low of August 14 was still a huge 20.8% above its low of December 24, 2018, while August 2019's month-long average of 19.0 points for the VIX was well under the 25.0 points of December 2018.

    September 2019

    Weekly Market Outlook: Bond Implied Ratings Hint of More Fallen-Angel Downgrades

    On September 9, the senior unsecured bond rating of Ford Motor was lowered from Baa3 to Ba1, where the downgrade constituted a ratings reduction from investment- to speculative-grade (or high-yield). Because investor mandates often prohibit the inclusion of high-yield bonds in investment-grade portfolios, such a downgrade can quickly lower the prices of adversely affected bonds.

    September 2019