Katrina Ell, an economist based in Sydney, manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for economic research, analysis and forecasting of countries throughout the region. Katrina joined Moody’s Analytics in 2010 and is quoted frequently in international media, including CNBC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. Previously, she was an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. .
Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.
Economic Research: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic analysis to help clients understand key economic drivers across all geographic levels.
Economic Scenarios: Moody's Analytics provides internally and globally consistent economic, regulatory, and custom scenarios.
Economic Forecasts: Forecasts potential economic outcomes on the performance of businesses and investments.
Economic Risk Assessment: Quantitative economic assessment to help you understand the impact of forward-looking changes on the performance of your business and portfolios.
Econometric Modeling: Fully transparent econometric and statistical models to assess performance of geographies, financials and various asset classes.
Following Jerome Powell's testimony of December 11, Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield fell to 3.98%, which was its lowest close since the 3.95% of August 28, 2019.
More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.
U.S. business activity has not been exceeding its reach, and that will help extend the long-lived bull market and record-long economic recovery.
For January-October 2019, the corporate bond issuance by U.S. based businesses grew by 12.4% year over year to $871.0 billion for investment-grade obligations and increased by 15.2% annually to $186.5 billion for high-yield offerings.
The market value of U.S. common stock has been setting new record highs. However, U.S. corporate credit spreads for both bonds and loans have yet to approach their lows of the current business cycle upturn, never mind their existing record lows.
The dreaded inverted yield curve is gone, but perhaps not for long. Following October 30's paring of the federal funds rate's midpoint to 1.625%, the fed funds rate is less than the recent 1.68% 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since May 2019.