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The latest rally by Treasury bonds drove Moody's long-term industrial company bond yields down to new 63-year lows. On August 14, the single-A industrial company bond yield closed at 3.30% and the Baa industrial yield ended at 4.08%.
The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.
It was a tumultuous week. Volatility will lurk until trade issues are resolved. Perhaps the best markets can hope for on the trade front is a long-lived truce.
The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.
Since 1984, there have been seven distinct series of Fed rate cuts. Four of the seven rate cut episodes occurred amid a mature business cycle upturn and managed to stave off a recession. They happened in 1985, 1987, 1995, and 1998.
Forecasts of a prolonged depreciation of the dollar exchange rate may be overlooking to the increased importance of U.S. spending as a driver of global economic growth.