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    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Article
    Graphic of financial indicators

    Trade War Chicken: The Tariffs and the Damage Done

    Based on simulations of the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, this paper examines the consequences for the U.S. and global economies in different scenarios regarding how the trade war between the U.S. and China will unfold.

    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    The Next Recession

    Recession risks are uncomfortably high and rising, as President Trump continues to pursue his trade war with China.

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Reasonable and Supportable Forecasts - From Principles to Practice

    With many of the larger SEC filers well ahead in their CECL preparations and gearing up for validation, we examine how the requirements of an R&S forecast and reversion may be interpreted.

    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Economic Implications of Climate Change

    The effects of climate change will intensify throughout the century, resulting in profound changes in climate patterns across the globe.

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

    Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

    Article
    Climate Change

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    LatAm Central Bankers Bask in Fed Pause

    Rate cut or not, the Federal Reserve's easing bias is a relief for the region.

    Presentation

    Industry Data and Calibration Options - CUNA 2019 Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) eSchool

    Industry data can be leveraged for CECL when lender-specific data is not complete.

    Webinar-on-Demand

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

    Join Moody's Analytics' Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax.

    Article
    illuminated stock market numbers

    The Belt and Road Initiative—Six Years On

    Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.

    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    Middle East Economic Outlook – Rising Geopolitical Risks

    The region's economies should steadily grow, but the risks are mounting.