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    Alfredo Coutiño

    Alfredo Coutiño is the Head of Latin America Economic Research at Moody’s Analytics, responsible for real-time and regular analysis, modeling and forecasting for Latin America.

    Alfredo has more than 25 years experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy, economic consulting, econometric modeling and forecasting for Mexico and Latin America. He has also published papers on applied econometrics with Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. An experienced speaker, Alfredo is regularly featured on major Latin American news programs and has presented at the United Nations conferences and at the American Economic Association. Dr. Coutino received his PhD in economics from the University of Madrid after completing doctoral studies at Temple University.

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    Published Work

    Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

    Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

    July 2019

    Chile Reverses on Monetary Normalization

    The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.

    June 2019

    Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border

    Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.

    April 2019

    Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

    América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

    April 2019

    Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

    We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

    March 2019

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2019

    América Latina se encamina a su segundo año de recuperación en el 2019, con una mejoría más generalizada a nivel de países.

    March 2019