Alfredo Coutiño, head of Latin America Economic Research at Moody’s Analytics, leads real-time and regular analysis, modeling and forecasting for Latin America. He joined Moody’s in 2004 and has more than 25 years of experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy, economic consulting, econometric modeling and forecasting for Mexico and Latin America. Previously, he was director, Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico and director of Macroeconomic Analysis on Mexico at WEFA.
Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.
Economic Research: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic analysis to help clients understand key economic drivers across all geographic levels.
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América Latina registrará una ligera recuperación en el 2020, después de un estancamiento en 2019.
Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.
The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.
Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.
América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.
We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.