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    Alfredo Coutiño

    Acclaimed international economist and economics thought leader focusing on macroeconomic analysis and policy, economic consulting, econometric modeling and forecasting for Mexico and Latin America.

    Alfredo Coutiño, head of Latin America Economic Research at Moody’s Analytics, leads real-time and regular analysis, modeling and forecasting for Latin America. He joined Moody’s in 2004 and has more than 25 years of experience in macroeconomic analysis and policy, economic consulting, econometric modeling and forecasting for Mexico and Latin America. Previously, he was director, Center for Economic Forecasting of Mexico and director of Macroeconomic Analysis on Mexico at WEFA.

    education
    Universidad Autónoma de Madrid: PhD, Econometrics, Open Macroeconomics
    Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México: MA, International Economics, Econometrics
    Temple University: MA/PhD, International Economics, Econometrics
    Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México: BA, Economics
    Honors & Awards
    • May 2019 - FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Award - #1 Inflation Forecaster – Mexico
    Expertise
    solutions
    Moody's Analytics | Economic Forecasts

    Economic Forecasts: Moody's Analytics provides trusted macro and regional forecasts to help clients assess potential economic outcomes.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Research

    Economic Research: Moody's Analytics provides comprehensive economic analysis to help clients understand key economic drivers across all geographic levels.

    Moody's Analytics | Economic Scenarios

    Economic Scenarios: Moody's Analytics provides internally and globally consistent economic, regulatory, and custom scenarios.

    Published Work
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Perspectivas Económicas para América Latina 2020

    América Latina registrará una ligera recuperación en el 2020, después de un estancamiento en 2019.

    December 2019
    Article

    Potential Output and Monetary Neutrality in Chile

    Based on an update of the economy's structural variables, the Central Bank of Chile relaxed monetary conditions in June. Using statistical methods, we arrived at the same conclusion in terms of Chile's potential output; however, the estimation of monetary neutrality changes significantly with the new methodology to compute inflation and with the change in expectations of the monetary policy rate. The high sensitivity of estimates of non observable variables––such as potential output and neutral interest rate––can lead to monetary decisions that may become inconsistent.

    July 2019
    Article

    Chile Reverses on Monetary Normalization

    The policy rate was cut based on a new estimation of the output gap.

    June 2019
    Article

    Economic Costs of Closing the U.S.-Mexico Border

    Supply chains and cross-border transactions could be damaged.

    April 2019
    Article

    Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

    América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

    April 2019
    Article

    Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

    We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

    March 2019