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    The Road Ahead for Credit Unions

    We examine the impact of COVID-19 on consumer credit incorporating scenarios assumptions.

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    Article

    Narrative Economic Scenarios as an Actuarial Risk Management Tool

    Narrative scenarios describing alternative “what-if” future states of the world can help insurers be better prepared for the next economic curveball.

    July 2020 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury

    Webinar Series: Community Banks in the Coronavirus Crisis

    The impacts of COVID-19 are not uniform across the nation. Quantifying these differences is critical to making better informed business decisions.

    May 05, 2020 WebPage Dr. Sohini ChowdhuryRobby Holditch
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on Consumer Credit

    The COVID-19 pandemic is dramatically impacting consumer credit portfolios.

    May 2020 WebPage David Fieldhouse, James Partridge
    Presentation

    The Road Ahead for Credit Unions

    Presentation slides form our webinar examining, consumer credit conditions under scenarios for Credit Unions.

    Whitepaper

    Case Study: Allowance Impact of COVID-19 on C&I, CRE, and Retail Portfolios under CECL

    Moody’s Analytics analyzed a range of plausible outcomes of quantitative expected losses under CECL, incorporating COVID-19 impacts across commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), and retail loans.

    April 2020 WebPage Eric Bao, David FieldhouseJin OhDr. Yashan Wang
    Article

    Forecasting the Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on Consumer Credit Losses

    We discuss the major implications of the COVID-19 recession on consumer credit performance over the next two years at the national, state, credit score band, and asset class level.

    April 2020 Pdf David Fieldhouse, James Partridge
    Article

    Case Study: Allowance Impact of COVID-19 on C&I, CRE, and Retail Portfolios under CECL

    CECL was scheduled to go into effect at the beginning of 2020 until COVID-19 disrupted businesses. Moody's Analytics analyzed a range of plausible outcomes of quantitative expected losses under CECL, incorporating COVID-19 impacts across commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), and retail loans.

    April 2020 Pdf Eric Bao, David FieldhouseJin OhDr. Yashan Wang
    Article

    Managing Financial Risk in a Changing Climate Landscape

    Where do we stand today and how can financial institutions prepare for this changing climate landscape?

    February 2020 Pdf Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
    Webinar-on-Demand

    U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook - 2020 Q1

    Join Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on Moody's Analytics forecasts of Equifax data.

    February 2020 WebPage Scott Hoyt, David Fieldhouse
    Article

    Cards and CECL estimates

    Recent CECL impact disclosures point directly to credit cards as the largest driver of the allowance. We can confirm those recent disclosures by looking at the consumer default volumes chart in Figure 1,which clearly point to the credit card segment as being one of the largest contributors of loss today.

    January 2020 WebPage Laurent BiradeDavid Fieldhouse
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