Director – Economic Research
Sohini Chowdhury is a director at Moody’s Analytics. She leads client projects related to stress testing and other regulatory requirements, and oversees the modeling of market risk instruments among the US staff. She has a PhD in economics from Purdue University, and a master’s in applied statistics from West Chester University. Before joining Moody’s, Sohini taught at the University of Cincinnati.
CECL will require institutions to incorporate macroeconomic forecasts formally into their loss allowance estimates for the first time. There are a number of ways in which this can be achieved as the CECL guidelines don't specify any one particular approach. In this presentation, we discuss some of the options that institutions have for incorporating economic forecasts into their expected loan loss reserve calculations. We discuss the benefits and costs of each approach and provide practical recommendations based on institution size and complexity. We also show a simple solution for calculating the lifetime expected losses for consumer loans for different products.
The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.
In this article, we model and forecast the term structure of swap spreads across a range of currencies using a principle component decomposition.
How US policymakers respond to pressing fiscal challenges could have major implications for financial market conditions. These challenges, coupled with the debate surrounding the Fed's balance sheet and geopolitical issues, are of concern for those with exposure to market risk.