Join Moody’s Analytics Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax.
Key topics include:
• Atypical consumer spending patterns
• Excessive saving
• 2021 Consumer Credit Market Outlook
U.S. retail sales continue to grow at a modest pace that is barely keeping up with inflation.
U.S. growth has been trending lower and decelerated more than anticipated in the first quarter of 2023, to 1.1% at an annualized rate in Thursday's GDP report from the BEA.
March's Federal Open Market Committee meeting was as highly anticipated as any in recent memory.
Balances and delinquencies will rise quickly for all borrowers.
U.S. inflation is moderating, but the consumer price index underscores that the disinflationary process will be a bumpy ride.
The stock of U.S. consumer credit rose in December but marked the smallest monthly gain since January 2021,surprising to the downside relative to our and consensus expectations.
Increased Uncertainty for Auto Leases
Moody's Analytics baseline outlook calls for a recession-free 2023 in the U.S., though the pace of growth will slow demonstrably.
After starting 2022 at zero, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s has lifted the target range for the fed funds rate to end the year at 4.25% to 4.5%.