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    Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

    The Federal Reserve have released its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Listen as Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.

    Our experts answer key questions, including: 

    • How severe are the Fed’s scenarios?
    • Are the scenarios internally consistent?
    • What are possible narratives driving the scenarios?
    • How do this year’s scenarios compare with last year’s?
    • What is the probability of the Fed scenarios?
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    2020 Global Recession: Key Indicators and Implications

    In a recent webinar with GARP and Moody's Analytics, Chief Deputy Economist, Cris deRitis, took a look at the indicators and implications of an upcoming recession, and how they may affect credit risk.

    January 14, 2020 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitisMichael Schwartz

    Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Rating Changes Say High-Yield Bond Spread Is Too Thin

    High-yield bonds have rallied mightily despite the lack of any observable broad-based acceleration of either business sales or corporate earnings

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez, Mark Zandi

    2020 U.S. Economic & Consumer Credit Outlook

    Cris deRitis, Chief Deputy Economist with Moody's Analytics discusses the current and anticipated trends in U.S. economic and household credit conditions.

    December 2019 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

    A Global Recession: Key Indicators and Implications

    How should we prepare for the next recession?

    November 2019 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitisMichael Schwartz

    Mission Possible: Producing Defendable CECL Results With or Without Models

    Learn to differentiate C&I, CRE, retail, and securities. Choose approaches at the right level of flexibility and sophistication. Apply model-free solutions based on historical internal or industry data.

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    Boom, Bust, Flat: Quantifying Recession and Expansion Risks with Scenarios

    Having achieved the longest expansion in history, what's next for the US economy? ‍We will identify current downside – and upside – risks that could pull the economy into recession or propel it forward. We identify short, medium, and long-term risk factors and introduce a methodology for incorporating these risks into a globally consistent framework. ‍While no model can forecast the future with certainty, scenarios with mathematically derived probability weights can manage these risks and lead to better, faster decisions. ‍

    November 2019 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis

    The Risk Management Impact of Climate Change & Environmental, Social, & Governance Risk (ESG)

    Climate change and its increasing economic toll on businesses in different sectors of the economy is discussed, including how to operationalize the response to climate change risk, given stakeholder need. Also discussed is the linkage between environmental risk and other ESG risk factors to security returns and measures of credit risk.

    November 2019 Pdf Michael Denton, Dr. Cristian deRitis

    The Next Recession

    The U.S. and global economies are struggling under the weight of the U.S.-China trade war and a range of other geopolitical threats. Can the global economy avoid an economic recession?

    November 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi

    Europe Economic Outlook - Cloud of Uncertainty

    We consider the leading indicators of recession, the potential timing of the downturn, its severity and length.

    October 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Petr Zemcik

    Weekly Market Outlook: Loans Impart an Upward Bias to High-Yield Downgrade per Upgrade Ratio

    The credit rating revisions of loan-only high-yield issuers reveal a higher frequency of rating downgrades compared to issuers with outstanding high-yield bonds.

    October 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Steven Shields, Ryan SweetMark Zandi
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