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The Federal Reserve have released its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Listen as Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.

Our experts answer key questions, including: 

  • How severe are the Fed’s scenarios?
  • Are the scenarios internally consistent?
  • What are possible narratives driving the scenarios?
  • How do this year’s scenarios compare with last year’s?
  • What is the probability of the Fed scenarios?
Related Articles

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve will release its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.

February 11, 2019 WebPage Mark ZandiDr. Cristian deRitis

Deconstructing Scenario Weights for CECL

In this paper we present the theoretical motivation behind these weights and suggests reasonable ways of choosing these weights in practice.

February 08, 2019 Pdf Dr. Sohini ChowdhuryDr. Cristian deRitis
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Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

February 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
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Weekly Market Outlook: Baa-Grade Credits Dominate U.S. Investment-Grade Rating Revisions

In 2018's final quarter, the 22 downgrades of U.S. investment-grade companies included nine that were at least partly ascribed to mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and three that were linked to equity buybacks. Only half, or 11, of fourth-quarter 2018's U.S. investment-grade downgrades were primarily driven by worsened operating or market fundamentals.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark ZandiRyan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

2019 U.S. Macro Outlook: From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle

In this webinar, Chief Economist Mark Zandi, will share his outlook for the economy, including why 2019 should be another reasonably good year, the threats to this expectation and why a downturn early in the next decade is more likely.

January 15, 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics: 2019 U.S. Macro Outlook - From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle

The next recession is coming into view but probably will not arrive in the coming year as many seem to fear.

January 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi
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Gauging CECL Cyclicality

In this paper, we provide empirical support for the conclusion that the CECL standard will be less procyclical than the incurred loss standard.

December 2018 Pdf Mark ZandiDr. Cristian deRitis
FAQ

CECL Roundtable FAQs

An open dialogue around economic forecasting techniques for calculating life-of-loan expected credit losses.

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Pride and Protectionism: U.S. Trade Policy and Its Impact on Asia

Crafting economically sound trade policy is easier said than done.

October 2018 Pdf Mark ZandiSteven CochraneRyan Sweet
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