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In this video, learn more about the requirements for forward-looking economic scenarios for CECL compliance and the comparisons between scenarios for CECL and IFRS 9.

In this video, learn more about the requirements for forward-looking economic scenarios for CECL compliance and the comparisons between scenarios for CECL and IFRS 9.

Related Insights

What are Some of the Pros and Cons of Loan Level versus Cohort-Level or Portfolio-Level Models for CECL?

In this video, Cris DeRitis reviews the advantages and disadvantages of the different type of models that are acceptable for CECL. A portfolio-level approach is a simpler modeling method, but lacks granularity. Loan-level models are more granular, but more complex and costly. Vintage cohort-level models are sensitive enough to capture economic changes, but not as complex and costly as loan-level models.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

Which Modeling Methods or Techniques are Acceptable for CECL?

In this video, Cris deRitis reviews the types of models institutions can leverage to be CECL-compliant including loan-level, loss given default, probability of default, expected at default, vintage cohort, or portfolio-level models. There is no specific guidance that institutions need to follow, but the modeling method will depend on the complexity and size of the portfolio.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

What Should Banks Consider When Using Existing Models for CECL?

In this video, Cris DeRitis explains how institutions can leverage existing models and modify them to be compliant with the new CECL standard. Acceptable models institutions can use include Dodd-Frank Act Stress Testing (DFAST), though-the-cycle or internal models.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

What are the Pros and Con of Single versus Multiple Scenario Use for CECL?

In this video, Cris deRitis discusses how single versus multiple scenarios can impact loss provisions and affect volatility in portfolios. One advantage of a single scenario is the simplicity, but it only provides one number under one scenario which can cause volatility over time. Using multiple scenarios will be less volatile, but are most costly.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

Economic Scenarios: What's Reasonable and Supportable?

In this paper, we review and make recommendations on the use of economic scenarios in the CECL process along six key dimensions: FASB requirements, Forecast methodology and horizon definition, number of scenarios, mean reversions and custom scenarios. We conclude with a discussion of other considerations banks and lenders should bear in mind when developing a forward-looking process for CECL compliance.

October 2017 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis

Economic Scenarios for CECL: What's Reasonable and Supportable?

In this webinar, Cris deRitis, Senior Director from Moody's Analytics, demonstrates how to leverage econometrically derived, forward-looking scenarios to assess life-time losses for CECL.

September 2017 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

"Economic Scenarios for CECL; What's Reasonable and Supportable?" Presentation Slides

In this webinar, Cris deRitis, Senior Director from Moody's Analytics, demonstrates how to leverage econometrically derived, forward-looking scenarios to assess life-time losses for CECL.

September 2017 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis

When Good Data Happen to Good People: Boosting Productivity with High-Quality Data

In this article, we show the mechanisms through which data quality and productivity interact, and how investments in data quality can offer productivity gains.

When Good Data Happen to Good People: Boosting Productivity with High-Quality Data

With ever-increasing requirements for a higher quantity and quality of analytical output, the need to boost productivity in risk management has become more acute. In pursuing these productivity gains, we have observed that investments in data quality can offer dramatic improvements and typically pay for themselves.

CECL Quantification: Retail Portfolios

In this webinar, our experts discuss the important considerations in the modeling and implementation of the CECL standard for retail portfolios. Learn more about loan-level modeling approaches that can be used to forecast credit losses for retail portfolios and how to leverage existing risk measurement practices.

CECL Quantification: Retail Portfolios Webinar Slides

In this webinar, our experts discuss the important considerations in the modeling and implementation of the CECL standard for retail portfolios. Learn more about loan-level modeling approaches that can be used to forecast credit losses for retail portfolios and how to leverage existing risk measurement practices.

Expanding and Regionalizing the Federal Reserve CCAR Scenarios

Moody's Analytics will expand each of the Fed's scenarios to produce forecasts for the full set of more than 1,500 variables found in its own macroeconomic forecasts.

March 2017 Pdf Celia Chen, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Ed Friedman, Adam Kamins

CECL Quantification: Retail Portfolios Webinar Slides

In this webinar, our experts discuss the important considerations in the modeling and implementation of the CECL standard for retail portfolios. Learn more about loan-level modeling approaches that can be used to forecast credit losses for retail portfolios and how to leverage existing risk measurement practices.

CECL's Implications for Bank Profitability, System Stability, and Economic Growth

In this article, we analyze the potential effects of upcoming CECL regulations on lenders and explore the impact of CECL under different Moody’s Analytics scenarios.

November 2016 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitisDr. Deniz Tudor

CCAR and the Paradox of Lower Losses

Now that bank finances and risk management are stronger and data are more reliable, we focus on the quantitative accuracy of the stress tests themselves and their reasonableness vis-a-vis the Great Recession experience in this article.

April 2014 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis, Mustafa Akcay, Jeffrey Hollander

Stress Testing Webinar Series: Macroeconomic Conditional Loss Forecasting Presentation

In this Moody's Analytics webinar, Thomas Day and other Moody's Analytics experts discuss Macroeconomic Conditional Loss Forecasting. Given the criticality of loss estimation, and the need for different models by asset class, we cover loss estimation for Retail Exposures (non-mortgage), Structured Portfolios, Wholesale C&I (non-public), and Wholesale (public).

October 2013 Pdf Thomas Day, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Luis Amador

The Moody's CreditCycle Approach to Loan Loss Modeling

This whitepaper goes in-depth into the Moody's CreditCycle approach to loan loss modeling.

CECL's Implications for Bank Profitability, System Stability, and Economic Growth

In this article, we analyze the potential effects of upcoming CECL regulations on lenders and explore the impact of CECL under different Moody's Analytics scenarios. A poorly timed transition could lead to a market-wide liquidity shortage or a crisis in economic activity. We provide suggestions on how the transition to CECL can be managed smoothly for minimal economic impact.