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Moody's Analytics Insights

Article
Stock Market Graph and Bar Chart

CECL: Credit Cards and Lifetime Estimation - A Reasonable Approach

Many institutions are struggling to apply the CECL standard as it pertains to credit cards, and in particular determining the lifetime value for credit card portfolios. In this paper, we explore the different approaches to evaluating lifetime estimates for the credit card portfolio.

September 2018

Article

Improving Risk Ratings in Preparation for CECL

When calculating expected credit losses, accuracy is paramount. This is a challenging task, but there are specific steps financial institutions can take to build meaningful risk ratings that lead to more precise loss calculations and better, more informed decisions.

August 2018

Article

The Impact of Assumptions on the CECL Estimate

Across institutions of all sizes, one of the questions executive management should be asking their CECL working groups is, "What is the impact to our bottom line?"

August 2018

Webinar-on-Demand
Block of arrows pointing right and one pointing left.

CECL Disclosures – Required and Beyond

Our experts, Masha Muzyka and Jin Oh, cover transition disclosures focus areas, potential implication of the methodology chosen to the expected disclosures and ECL disclosure best practices emerging to date.

July 2018
Masha Muzyka, Jin Oh

Presentation
Abstract architecture background. Skyscraper with sunlight.

Incorporating Economic Forecasts into CECL

CECL will require institutions to incorporate macroeconomic forecasts formally into their loss allowance estimates for the first time. There are a number of ways in which this can be achieved as the CECL guidelines don't specify any one particular approach. In this presentation, we discuss some of the options that institutions have for incorporating economic forecasts into their expected loan loss reserve calculations. We discuss the benefits and costs of each approach and provide practical recommendations based on institution size and complexity. We also show a simple solution for calculating the lifetime expected losses for consumer loans for different products.

July 2018

Presentation
Financial and business chart and graphs

Simple But Not Simpler: Day 1 Modeling Approaches

Simple But Not Simpler: Day 1 Modeling Approaches. This presentation is a review of simple approaches available to community banks on the road to their CECL journey.

July 2018

Webinar-on-Demand
Chess pawns in a circle

CECL: The "Easiest" Implementation

Our subject matter experts, Robby Holditch, Director, and Jin Oh, Director, discuss critical steps in meeting the new CECL standard.

June 2018

Presentation
Idea concept with row of light bulbs

Be Reasonable: Creating Supportable Forecast Scenarios for CECL

This presentation discusses the CECL requirement of reasonable and supportable forecasts. We discuss what makes an economic scenario reasonable and supportable and discusses structural forecast model methodology. We also compare customized, standard and off-the-shelf scenarios and examine forecasting credit losses.

June 2018

Whitepaper
Figure 7 CCM breakdown.

A Composite Capital Measure Unifying Business Decision Rules in the Face of Regulatory Requirements Under New Accounting Standards

Prudent credit risk management ensures institutions maintain sufficient capital and limit the possibility of a capital breach. With CECL and IFRS 9, the resulting trend toward greater credit earnings volatility raises uncertainty in capital supply, ultimately causing an increase in required capital. It is ever more challenging for institutions to manage their top-of-the house capital while steering their business to achieve the desired performance level. This paper introduces an approach that quantifies the additional capital buffer an institution requires, beyond the required regulatory minimum, to limit the likelihood of a capital breach. In addition, we introduce a new measure that allocates capital and recognizes an instrument's regulatory capital requirements, loss allowance, economic concentration risks, and the instrument's contribution to the uncertainty in capital supply and demand. In-line with the Composite Capital Measure introduced in Levy and Xu (2017), this extended measure includes far-reaching implications for business decisions. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate the limitations of alternative measures and how institutions can optimize performance by allocating capital and making business decisions according to the new measure.

May 2018
Dr. Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Dr. Pierre Xu