The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

By Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson

September 2017

Economic Risk Assessment

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the economic impact of Hurricane Irma including:

How much property damage resulted from Irma?
What is the hurricane's economic impact on Florida and the rest of the southeastern U.S.?
What is the fallout on industries and government finances?


Article Weekly Market Outlook: Benign Default Outlook Implies Profits Will Outrun Corporate Debt A high ratio of corporate debt to GDP is tolerable as long as a material contraction of core pretax profits is avoided. History shows that the ratio of corporate debt to core pretax profits performs better at explaining high-yield defaults than does the ratio of corporate debt to GDP. April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Scott Hoyt, Steven Shields
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Upside Risks to the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy has weakened in early 2019, fanning concerns that the expansion is running out of steam. However, a number of factors that are contributing to this apparent downshift are temporary. April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Brendan Meighan, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez, Andrew Pak, Adam Ozimek
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Outstandings and Rating Changes Supply Radically Different Default Outlooks The credit ratings distribution of outstanding U.S. high-yield corporate bond debt and the distribution of high-yield credit rating revisions now deliver conflicting messages regarding the high-yield default rate's likely direction. April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields
Article Weekly Market Outlook: High Leverage Offset by Ample Coverage of Net Interest Expense The faster growth of nonfinancial-corporate debt relative to both nominal GDP and the group's core pretax profits has been offset by the comparatively slow growth of net interest expense. April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Subdued Outlooks for Revenues and Profits Portend Lower Interest Rates Recession fears abound yet the prices of earnings-sensitive securities and industrial commodities have held up reasonably well. Indicators of financial distress have yet to warn of sharply lower share prices and a surge in corporate debt defaults. Apparently markets are confident in the remedial powers of lower interest rates. March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Will Cut Rates If 10-Year Yield Breaks Under 2.4% The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection. March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Riskier Outlook May Slow Corporate Debt Growth in 2019 The latest version of the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States” was released on March 7. As of 2018's final quarter, the total outstandings of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt grew by 5.1% year-to-year to a record high $51.796 trillion. March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Replay of Late 1998's Drop by Interest Rates May Materialize Weakness abroad and a faltering demand for U.S. output now put downward pressure on both earnings-sensitive securities' prices and benchmark Treasury yields. The equity and high-yield credit rallies will be put on hold until the earnings outlook stabilizes. March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Moody's Yield Averages Enter Their 100th Year Two milestones will be arrived at in 2019. First, but not necessarily the foremost, Moody's corporate bond yield averages will record their 100th anniversary in 2019. February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Might Yet Be Challenged by a Worsened Business Outlook High-yield bonds have led the credit market in total return thus far in 2019. After soaring from 6.32% at the end of September to 8.06% by year-end 2018, a composite speculative-grade bond yield has dropped to February 20's 6.79%. February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

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