The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

By Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson

September 2017

Economic Risk Assessment

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the economic impact of Hurricane Irma including:

How much property damage resulted from Irma?
What is the hurricane's economic impact on Florida and the rest of the southeastern U.S.?
What is the fallout on industries and government finances?

Related Insights


Webinar-on-Demand President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios. April 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale
Moody's Analytics Webinar: President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios. April 11, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Debt-to-Profits Outperforms Debt-to-GDP In 2017's final quarter, the 7.7% yearly advance by nonfinancial-corporate profits from current production outran the accompanying 6.6% increase of nonfinancial-corporate debt. The record shows that if pretax operating profits continue to outpace corporate debt, corporate credit quality will improve. The correlation between the high-yield default rate's quarter-long average and the yearlong ratio of debt-tooperating profits for US nonfinancial corporations is a meaningful 0.82. March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Kathryn Asher, Michael Ferlez, Thomas Nichols, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell
Weighing the Wealth Effect In this paper, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax. March 28, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Foreign Investors Ease Burden of U.S.' Elevated Leverage Perceived economic and political risks drove share prices sharply lower on March 22. Markets are beginning to ask whether companies will be capable of passing on higher costs to the U.S.' less than financially robust middle class. The U.S.' still relatively low personal savings rate questions how easily consumers will absorb recent and any forthcoming price hikes. Moreover, the recent slide by Moody's industrial metals price index amid dollar exchange rate weakness hints of a leveling off of global business activity. March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Weighing the Wealth Effect The importance of the wealth effect has significant implications for the economic expansion. In this paper, we quantify the wealth effect based on unique retail sales data and data on household stock and financial asset holdings. We examine differences in the wealth effect across retail spending categories, the lags in the wealth effect, and possible asymmetries in the wealth effect due to rising versus falling asset prices. March 21, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Default Rate Defies Record Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP Never before have the high-yield bond spread and default rate been so low amid a new record high ratio of U.S. corporate debt to GDP. In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial-corporate debt finished 2017 at an unprecedented 45.4% of U.S. nominal GDP. Nevertheless, not only was the U.S.' high-yield default rate of Q4-2017 at a below-trend 3.3%, but the accompanying average high-yield bond spread of 363 basis points reflected expectations of an even lower default rate nine to twelve months hence. Moody's Default Research Group expects the default rate to approximate 2% during early 2019. March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Internal Funds Outrun Corporate Debt by Widest Margin Since 2011 Lately, financial markets have grudgingly withstood the broad imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum. Not even the resignation of the highly respected Gary Cohn was capable of triggering a jarring sell-off of equities. Markets took some comfort from President Trump's indication that countries might be granted exemptions from the tariffs if they resolve issues that led to the imposition of tariffs. March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Tariffs Warn of Even Faster Price Inflation and Slower Growth February was a stormy month for financial markets. Worse yet, March got off to a horrible start in response to President Trump's intention to impose import tariffs of 10% on aluminum and 25% on steel despite how costlier aluminum and steel will diminish the global competitiveness of those U.S. manufacturers using these materials. Remember, after having incurred back-to-back monthly setbacks in January and February, auto sales were expected to decline in 2018 prior to the statement on tariffs. March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Borrowing Restraint Elsewhere Makes Room for Federal Debt Surge Partly as a means of offsetting the loss of business activity to deleveraging by households, businesses, as well as state and local governments, the federal government's share of the U.S.' broadest estimate of public and private nonfinancial-sector debt has soared from year-end 2007's 18% to the 34% of 2017's third quarter. The latter share is the highest since 1960's third quarter. February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Declining Default Rate Offsets Drag of Higher Interest Rates Corporate bond yield spreads have been relatively steady throughout recent equity market tumult. Expectations of a declining high-yield default rate into early 2019 have anchored corporate yield spreads. February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Corporate Bonds Beg to Differ With Their Equity Brethren Thus far, the corporate credit market has been relatively steady amid equity market turmoil. Corporate credit's comparative calm stems from expectations of continued profit growth that underpins a still likely slide by the high-yield default rate. The record shows that 90% of the year-to-year declines by the default rate were joined by year-to-year growth for the market value of U.S. common stock. February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Webinar-on-Demand Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables. February 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Yields and Lower Equities Might Yet Swell Credit Risk It has been a volatile week for financial markets. After shrugging off an earlier ascent by the 10-year Treasury yield from year-end 2017's 2.41% to January 26's 2.66% and advancing by 7.1%, the market value of U.S. common stock has since sunk by 1.6% in reaction to a climb by the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.77%. The deeper post-January 26 drop of 3.7% by the interest-sensitive PHLX index of housing-sector share prices underscores the importance of higher Treasury bond yields to the latest retreat by equities. Earlier, or from year-end 2017 through January 26, the index of housing sector share prices was up by 4.9%, which trailed the accompanying advance by the overall equity market. February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell
Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables. February 01, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ed Friedman, Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Article Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Bond Issuance Thrives Despite Tax Law Changes Some predicted that the loss of the full deductibility of business interest expense would weigh heavily on the issuance of dollar-denominated high-yield bonds. However, corporate bond issuance has exceeded expectations thus far in 2018. January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Faraz Syed, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand 2018 U.S. Economic Outlook Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody’s Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy’s performance. January 2018 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Surging Equities and Thinner Spreads Favor Higher Treasury Yields Earnings-sensitive securities have thrived thus far in 2018. Not only was the market value of U.S. common stock recently up by 4.5% since year-end 2017, but a composite high-yield bond spread narrowed by 23 basis points to 336 bp. The latter brings attention to how the accompanying composite speculative-grade bond yield fell from year-end 2017's 5.82% to a recent 5.72% despite the 5-year Treasury yield's increase from 2.21% to 2.39%, respectively. January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Alaistair Chan, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand Housing Takes a Hit In this webinar, we consider the prospects for the housing market in 2018 in light of the recent changes to the tax code. January 2018 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Mark Zandi
Article Weekly Market Outlook: Profits Growth and Benign Default Outlook May Offset Higher Interest Rates Corporate bonds and equities got out of the gate quickly in 2018. Though benchmark interest rates are likely to climb higher, the combination of corporate earnings growth and a benign outlook for corporate defaults should be enough to prevent a deep and extended slide by share prices. Except for late 1987's stock market crash, the historical record shows that since 1982, interest-rate inspired declines by the broad equity indices have been relatively brief and shallow. January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Suzanne Schatz, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand Weighing the Wealth Effect In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax. December 2017 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Brian Poi, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand Economic Consequences of Republican Tax Legislation In this webinar, we assess the implications of the imminent change, with a focus on who benefits most and who is likely to be hurt. The discussion entails a look at both the national effects and the regional implications. December 2017 WebPage Chris Lafakis, Adam Kamins, Dan White, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand The Economic Impact of Hurricane Harvey In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles. September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ed Friedman, Ryan Sweet, Chris Lafakis
Presentation Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy. May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi
Presentation Potential Bumps Ahead for US Financial Markets How US policymakers respond to pressing fiscal challenges could have major implications for financial market conditions. These challenges, coupled with the debate surrounding the Fed's balance sheet and geopolitical issues, are of concern for those with exposure to market risk. May 2017 Pdf Ryan Sweet, Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Whitepaper Expanding and Regionalizing the Federal Reserve CCAR Scenarios Moody's Analytics will expand each of the Fed's scenarios to produce forecasts for the full set of more than 1,500 variables found in its own macroeconomic forecasts. March 2017 Pdf Celia Chen, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Ed Friedman, Adam Kamins
Webinar-on-Demand Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance. December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand Post-US Presidential Election Outlook Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president’s term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth. November 2016 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand Assessing the impact of the EU-Wide Stress Test Results 2016 In this webinar, Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou, Director, Stress Testing Specialist, discuss the results of the latest stress tests. August 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou
Webinar-on-Demand Brexit - Economic & Financial Aftermath The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country’s place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit. June 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand Learnings from CCAR 2015 and Beyond In this webinar, Moody's Analytics experts revisit the CCAR 2015 scenarios, review industry results and discuss how to identify and quantify Systemic Risk. April 2015 WebPage Mark Zandi, Anna Krayn, Dr. Samuel W. Malone
Presentation Reverse Stress Testing: Challenges and Benefits Reverse stress testing is becoming recognised throughout the world for its benefits. This presentation explains what reverse stress testing is and what it can achieve, along with the challenges it presents. Here we show you why reverse stress testing can lead to a deeper understanding of an organisation's susceptibility to risk and why it is a valuable tool for any risk management strategy. November 2010 Pdf Dr. Christian Thun, Dr. Juan M. Licari, Mark Zandi