Chief APAC Economist
Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
Notwithstanding January's bigger-than-expected addition to payrolls, the futures market recently assigned a mere 3% probability to a hiking of fed funds at any point in 2019.
Global leverage has been rising as a share of GDP over the past decade. This is a growing concern, as questions around sustainability loom large in some pockets. Also, although global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, debt servicing costs will continue rising over the next year after an extended period of low borrowing costs, putting pressure on balance sheets.
Moody's Analytics outlook for Japan suggests GDP will grow near its potential pace, which hovers from 0.5% to 1%.
Vietnam's expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across Southeast Asia's emerging markets Moody's Analytics estimates output growth at 6.7% in 2018.
In this paper, we examine regional patterns of economic growth across China's 31 province-level administrative divisions, comparing changes in industrial structure, productivity growth and demographics.
With the economy now facing its most vulnerable window of growth since the global financial crisis, it appears the latter is again more of a priority.
An in depth view of our assumptions for the economy based on forecasts of key economic drivers and our experienced team of economists.
Crafting economically sound trade policy is easier said than done.
Steve Cochrane, Chief APAC Economist of Moody's Analytics, talks about the trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
Asia Deep Downturn Scenario Narrative