Using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to estimate the potential impact of BRI-related investments on Southeast Asian countries.
President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.
The Trump administration has increased tariffs to 25% on around US$200 billion of Chinese goods imports. An important determinant of the impact on the U.S. and global economies will be how Beijing chooses to retaliate.
During a week of heightened equity market volatility, the corporate credit market was relatively calm. As of May 8's close, the credit market had yet to sense much collateral damage from an intensification of the trade conflict between China and the U.S.
Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.
Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.