General Information & Client Services
  • Americas: +1.212.553.1653
  • Asia: +852.3551.3077
  • China: +86.10.6319.6580
  • EMEA: +44.20.7772.5454
  • Japan: +81.3.5408.4100
Media Relations
  • New York: +1.212.553.0376
  • London: +44.20.7772.5456
  • Hong Kong: +852.3758.1350
  • Tokyo: +813.5408.4110
  • Sydney: +61.2.9270.8141
  • Mexico City: +001.888.779.5833
  • Buenos Aires: +0800.666.3506
  • São Paulo: +0800.891.2518
September 2017

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles.

Hurricane Harvey is poised to become one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history. It will take a significant toll on Southeast Texas, but is unlikely to be a macroeconomic event. Harvey could leave a small but temporary mark on U.S. GDP that likely won't be enormous unless there are significant disruptions to the energy industry.

Chief Economist Mark Zandi discusses the economic impact of Hurricane Harvey including:

  • What is the hurricane's immediate impact on the regional and national economies?
  • What are the implications for the U.S. energy industry?

Related Insights
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Base Metals Price Slump May Dispute Benign Default Outlook

New signs of industrial commodity price deflation have grabbed the attention of financial markets. Nevertheless, the latest slide by Moody's industrial metals price index has yet to even remotely approach its 26.1% average year-over-year plunge of the six-months-ended January 2016. The two major takeaways from the latest slide by base metals prices are global industrial activity has subsided and any stay by the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 3% will be short-lived.

August 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Profit Outlook Offsets Record Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

A high ratio of debt to GDP may be manageable, that is up until the income flow servicing such debt recedes. During the past several years, the ratio of U.S. nonfinancial-corporate debt to GDP seems to have lost its ability to explain both the magnitude and the direction of the high-yield default rate.

August 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Upon Further Review, Debt to EBITDA Still Falls Short as an Aggregate Predictor

Last week's commentary began with a reference to the weak predictive power of an unadjusted median ratio of corporate debt to EBITDA for publicly held, nonfinancial-company issuers of high-yield debt. However, one reader was gracious enough to take the time to alert me to a major shortcoming of the median ratio of corporate debt to EBITDA, especially as it applies to high-yield issuers. EBITDA—or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization—can be negative, especially among companies having speculative-grade ratings. As a result, an unadjusted median ratio of corporate debt to EBITDA often understates how burdensome outstanding debt is relative to the EBITDA of high-yield issuers.

August 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Ratio of Debt to EBITDA Is a Poor Predictor of the Default Rate

The median ratio of interest expense to EBITDA offers another way of explaining the high-yield default rate. This approach fares far better when compared to explaining the default rate with the median ratio of debt to EBITDA. Since year-end 2005, the quarterly default rate generates a relatively meaningful correlation of 0.75 with the median ratio of interest expense to EBITDA from one to two quarters earlier.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Webinar-on-Demand

U.S Macroeconomic Outlook Scenario Update

In this webinar, our economists present the current outlook for the U.S.

July 2018 WebPage Marisa DiNatale, Ed Friedman
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Base Metals Price Drop Suggests All Is Not Well

Though it goes practically unmentioned, one of the more unexpected developments of late has been the stunning collapse of Moody's industrial metals price index. In part, the industrial metals price index's average of July-to-date is a deep 8.2% under its June 2018 average because of uncertainties stemming from trade-related issues. Since worries surrounding a trade war came to the fore following June 14's close, the base metals price index has sunk by 13.0%. Nevertheless, the base metals price index's month-long average had peaked some time ago in February 2018, where the subsequent slide by the index through mid-June reflected a loss of momentum for global industrial activity.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell

Trade War Scenarios

Fill out this form to request more information on our Trade War Scenarios. Moody's Analytics scenarios are the foundation of risk management, compliance and strategic planning needs

July 17, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Markets Suggest the U.S. Fares Best in a Trade War

Financial markets believe that the U.S. is likely to fare better than most other major economies in an all-out trade war. This is because (i) international trade accounts for a smaller share of U.S. business activity, (ii) the U.S. imports far more than it exports, and (iii) the U.S. now well outperforms other major economies. Nevertheless, though the U.S. is better able the withstand the direct and collateral damage of a trade conflict, it is still expected suffer casualties in a trade war. And such casualties might well influence the outcome of November's Congressional elections.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Outstandings of Rated U.S. Corporate Bonds Dip from 2018's First to Second Quarter

According to Moody's Capital Markets Research Group, second-quarter 2018's outstandings of Moody's-rated U.S. corporate bonds excluding ABS and MBS rose by 3.3% year-over-year to $7.212 trillion, which was a slight 0.6% under first-quarter 2018's record high of $7.259 trillion. The second quarter's yearly increase of 3.3% was much slower than the 6.3% yearly increase of 2018's first quarter and was the smallest since the 2.1% of 2015's final quarter. The -0.6% dip by U.S. corporate bonds outstanding from the first to the second quarter of 2018 was only the third such sequential decline by the rated outstandings of U.S. corporate bonds during the past five years. The other two quarterly retreats were those of 0.2% of 2016's final quarter and 5.7% in 2015's final quarter.

July 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Alaistair Chan

Webinar - Forecasting Innovations: Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio.

June 28, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Richard Cross, Mark Hopkins
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Trade War Will Turn Ugly if Profits Shrink

Let's start with the good news of operating profits' much faster rise relative to the growth of corporate debt. During 2018's first quarter, the 9.7% year-to-year advance by the pretax operating profits of U.S. nonfinancial corporations far outran the accompanying 5.2% increase by nonfinancial corporate debt. Moreover, for the year-ended March 2018, operating profits' 7.2% increase also outpaced the 5.9% growth of corporate debt. In turn, the moving yearlong ratio of debt to operating profits for nonfinancial corporations eased from third-quarter 2017's cycle high of 699% to the 691% of 2018's first quarter.

June 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong
Webinar-on-Demand

Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Investment-Grade Looks Softer and High-Yield Looks Firmer Compared With Year-End 2007

Since June 14's close, or immediately prior to the latest bout of trade-related stress, the cumulative 0.8% decline by the market value of US common stock has been shallower than the accompanying 2.7% drop by the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average. By comparison, China's Shanghai Composite stock price index incurred a much deeper setback of 5.5%. The latest installment of trade friction has yet to roil all financial markets. The recent VIX of 14.2 points remained well below its long-term median of 15.9 points notwithstanding heightened financial market volatility.

June 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: May's High-Yield Bond Offerings Plunge as New Loan Programs Soar

May 2018's 52% year-to-year plunge by US$-denominated high-yield bond issuance to $20.96 billion grossly understated the overall pace of borrowing by high-yield companies. In stark contrast, May 2018's newly-rated bank loan programs graded Baa or lower soared higher by 52% from a year earlier to a record $104.64 billion. The latter surpassed January 2017's former zenith of $91.42 billion and was well above November 2007's $81.80 billion high of 2002-2007's business cycle upturn. By December 2007, the Great Recession was officially under way.

June 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Economic Growth Slows as Ratio of Debt to GDP Climbs Ever Higher

Perhaps the speed at which GDP grows relative to debt matters more than the ratio of debt to GDP. The faster GDP grows relative to debt, the lower might be the risks surrounding the repayment of debt obligations. Expressed differently, the greater the return from debt capital, the lower should be the incidence of delinquencies, charge offs, and defaults. When productively employed, debt capital can more than pay for itself. The U.S.' ratio of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt has soared from 1968's 131% to 2017's 253% of 2017. Nevertheless, the 10-year average annualized growth of U.S. real GDP decelerated from the 4.9% of the span-ended 1968 to the 1.4% of the span-ended 2017.

June 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Faraz Syed, Martin Janicko
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Fewer Defaults Strongly Favor a Higher Equity Market

Notwithstanding the occasional jarring setback, the market value of U.S. common stock need only rise by 4.8% in order to return to its record high of January 26, 2018. Such a recovery appears to be well within reach if profits grow. Moreover, the realization of the projected decline by the U.S.' high-yield default rate from April 2018's 3.7% to 1.5% by April 2019 implies a firming of corporate finances that can only facilitate a recovery by share prices.

May 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Kathryn Asher, Michael Ferlez, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Alaistair Chan, Veasna Kong, Faraz Syed
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Interest Rates Will Be the Source of Their Own Demise

The remedy of higher interest rates is taking effect. The risk of an overheating of financial markets and business activity appears to be waning. The market value of U.S. common stock has been unable to return to its record high of January 26 ever since the 10-year Treasury yield has risen from its 2.56% average of 2018's first 36 days to 2.88% since then. In turn, the S&P 500's forward-looking price-to-earnings ratio has eased from January 26's 18.7:1 to a recent 17.1:1. Not only will a less exuberant equity market rein-in wealth-driven spending by consumers, it will also curb business expenditures by containing the market valuation of business assets and increasing the cost of equity capital. Moreover, a less vibrant equity market may prompt creditors to demand additional compensation for default risk when lending to businesses.

May 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Kathryn Asher, Michael Ferlez, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Low Utilization Rate Favors Profits Growth and Fewer Defaults

Markets are now torn between upbeat outlooks for corporate earnings and the risks posed to these outlooks by a very low jobless rate. A recent consensus forecast has S&P 500 operating income growing by 22% in 2018 and by 11% in 2019. Moreover, the Blue Chip consensus believes that the pretax operating profits of all U.S. corporations will increase by 5.2% in 2018 and 4.4% in 2019. In addition, an expected drop by the U.S.' high-yield default rate from April 2018's 3.7% to 1.5% by April 2019 complements the positive outlook for profits. Nevertheless, April's historically low unemployment rate of 3.9% hints of limited upsides for both domestic spending and U.S. output that may thwart expectations of operating earnings growth and fewer defaults.

May 2018 Pdf Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Franklin Kim, John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Equities Giveth and Taketh Away from Credit Quality

The net equity buybacks of U.S. nonfinancial corporations fell from 2016's $581 billion to 2017's $391 billion possibly in response to the historically rich valuation of U.S. common stock. Indications are that first-quarter 2018's net stock buybacks were up considerably from 2017's final quarter mostly in response to the volatility that followed the setting of the now record high for the market value of U.S. common stock on January 26, 2018.

May 2018 Pdf Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Franklin Kim, John Lonski, Ryan Sweet, Reka Sulyok, Njundu Sanneh
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: M&A Both Enhances and Diminishes Corporate Credit Quality

Mergers, acquisitions and divestitures (M&A) wield considerable influence over corporate credit quality, where M&A's impact on a single company's credit standing can vary over time. For example, a credit rating may be downgraded early on because of the substantial increase in leverage brought on by a debt-financed acquisition. However, over time, the acquisition may help to boost profitability, liquidity and the company's market value by enough to eventually prompt a credit rating upgrade.

May 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Alaistair Chan
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Loan Default Rate May Approach Bond Default Rate

The high-yield bond market continues to shrug off equity market volatility. Notwithstanding a climb by the VIX index's month-long average from December 2017's 10.3 points to April-to-date's 18.6 points, as well as a rise by the U.S.' high-yield default rate from January 2018's 3.3% to March's 3.9%, April 25's composite high-yield bond spread of 352 basis points was thinner than the 359 bp of year-end 2017. Still, thin spreads reflect strongly held expectations of a renewed slide by the high-yield default rate well into 2019.

April 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Njundu Sanneh, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell

Down the Rabbit Hole: NAFTA Scenarios

A centerpiece of presidential candidate Trump's economic agenda was to take a hard line on our trading partners, particularly those with which the U.S. runs a trade deficit. China and Mexico were the object of his strongest recriminations, and he argued that large tariffs should be slapped on their exports to the U.S. Trump also labeled the Trans-Pacific Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement as among as the worst trade deals ever.

April 17, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale

Moody's Analytics Webinar: President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 11, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Debt-to-Profits Outperforms Debt-to-GDP

In 2017's final quarter, the 7.7% yearly advance by nonfinancial-corporate profits from current production outran the accompanying 6.6% increase of nonfinancial-corporate debt. The record shows that if pretax operating profits continue to outpace corporate debt, corporate credit quality will improve. The correlation between the high-yield default rate's quarter-long average and the yearlong ratio of debt-tooperating profits for US nonfinancial corporations is a meaningful 0.82.

March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Kathryn Asher, Michael Ferlez, Thomas Nichols, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell

Weighing the Wealth Effect

In this paper, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

March 28, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Foreign Investors Ease Burden of U.S.' Elevated Leverage

Perceived economic and political risks drove share prices sharply lower on March 22. Markets are beginning to ask whether companies will be capable of passing on higher costs to the U.S.' less than financially robust middle class. The U.S.' still relatively low personal savings rate questions how easily consumers will absorb recent and any forthcoming price hikes. Moreover, the recent slide by Moody's industrial metals price index amid dollar exchange rate weakness hints of a leveling off of global business activity.

March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell

Weighing the Wealth Effect

The importance of the wealth effect has significant implications for the economic expansion. In this paper, we quantify the wealth effect based on unique retail sales data and data on household stock and financial asset holdings. We examine differences in the wealth effect across retail spending categories, the lags in the wealth effect, and possible asymmetries in the wealth effect due to rising versus falling asset prices.

March 21, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Default Rate Defies Record Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

Never before have the high-yield bond spread and default rate been so low amid a new record high ratio of U.S. corporate debt to GDP. In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial-corporate debt finished 2017 at an unprecedented 45.4% of U.S. nominal GDP. Nevertheless, not only was the U.S.' high-yield default rate of Q4-2017 at a below-trend 3.3%, but the accompanying average high-yield bond spread of 363 basis points reflected expectations of an even lower default rate nine to twelve months hence. Moody's Default Research Group expects the default rate to approximate 2% during early 2019.

March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Internal Funds Outrun Corporate Debt by Widest Margin Since 2011

Lately, financial markets have grudgingly withstood the broad imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum. Not even the resignation of the highly respected Gary Cohn was capable of triggering a jarring sell-off of equities. Markets took some comfort from President Trump's indication that countries might be granted exemptions from the tariffs if they resolve issues that led to the imposition of tariffs.

March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Tariffs Warn of Even Faster Price Inflation and Slower Growth

February was a stormy month for financial markets. Worse yet, March got off to a horrible start in response to President Trump's intention to impose import tariffs of 10% on aluminum and 25% on steel despite how costlier aluminum and steel will diminish the global competitiveness of those U.S. manufacturers using these materials. Remember, after having incurred back-to-back monthly setbacks in January and February, auto sales were expected to decline in 2018 prior to the statement on tariffs.

March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Borrowing Restraint Elsewhere Makes Room for Federal Debt Surge

Partly as a means of offsetting the loss of business activity to deleveraging by households, businesses, as well as state and local governments, the federal government's share of the U.S.' broadest estimate of public and private nonfinancial-sector debt has soared from year-end 2007's 18% to the 34% of 2017's third quarter. The latter share is the highest since 1960's third quarter.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Declining Default Rate Offsets Drag of Higher Interest Rates

Corporate bond yield spreads have been relatively steady throughout recent equity market tumult. Expectations of a declining high-yield default rate into early 2019 have anchored corporate yield spreads.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Corporate Bonds Beg to Differ With Their Equity Brethren

Thus far, the corporate credit market has been relatively steady amid equity market turmoil. Corporate credit's comparative calm stems from expectations of continued profit growth that underpins a still likely slide by the high-yield default rate. The record shows that 90% of the year-to-year declines by the default rate were joined by year-to-year growth for the market value of U.S. common stock.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Webinar-on-Demand

Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Yields and Lower Equities Might Yet Swell Credit Risk

It has been a volatile week for financial markets. After shrugging off an earlier ascent by the 10-year Treasury yield from year-end 2017's 2.41% to January 26's 2.66% and advancing by 7.1%, the market value of U.S. common stock has since sunk by 1.6% in reaction to a climb by the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.77%. The deeper post-January 26 drop of 3.7% by the interest-sensitive PHLX index of housing-sector share prices underscores the importance of higher Treasury bond yields to the latest retreat by equities. Earlier, or from year-end 2017 through January 26, the index of housing sector share prices was up by 4.9%, which trailed the accompanying advance by the overall equity market.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 01, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ed Friedman, Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Bond Issuance Thrives Despite Tax Law Changes

Some predicted that the loss of the full deductibility of business interest expense would weigh heavily on the issuance of dollar-denominated high-yield bonds. However, corporate bond issuance has exceeded expectations thus far in 2018.

January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Faraz Syed, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand

2018 U.S. Economic Outlook

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody’s Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy’s performance.

January 2018 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Surging Equities and Thinner Spreads Favor Higher Treasury Yields

Earnings-sensitive securities have thrived thus far in 2018. Not only was the market value of U.S. common stock recently up by 4.5% since year-end 2017, but a composite high-yield bond spread narrowed by 23 basis points to 336 bp. The latter brings attention to how the accompanying composite speculative-grade bond yield fell from year-end 2017's 5.82% to a recent 5.72% despite the 5-year Treasury yield's increase from 2.21% to 2.39%, respectively.

January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Alaistair Chan, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand

Housing Takes a Hit

In this webinar, we consider the prospects for the housing market in 2018 in light of the recent changes to the tax code.

January 2018 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Profits Growth and Benign Default Outlook May Offset Higher Interest Rates

Corporate bonds and equities got out of the gate quickly in 2018. Though benchmark interest rates are likely to climb higher, the combination of corporate earnings growth and a benign outlook for corporate defaults should be enough to prevent a deep and extended slide by share prices. Except for late 1987's stock market crash, the historical record shows that since 1982, interest-rate inspired declines by the broad equity indices have been relatively brief and shallow.

January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Suzanne Schatz, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand

Weighing the Wealth Effect

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

December 2017 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Brian Poi, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Consequences of Republican Tax Legislation

In this webinar, we assess the implications of the imminent change, with a focus on who benefits most and who is likely to be hurt. The discussion entails a look at both the national effects and the regional implications.

December 2017 WebPage Chris Lafakis, Adam Kamins, Dan White, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson
Presentation

Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times

In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.

May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi
Presentation

Potential Bumps Ahead for US Financial Markets

How US policymakers respond to pressing fiscal challenges could have major implications for financial market conditions. These challenges, coupled with the debate surrounding the Fed's balance sheet and geopolitical issues, are of concern for those with exposure to market risk.

Whitepaper

Expanding and Regionalizing the Federal Reserve CCAR Scenarios

Moody's Analytics will expand each of the Fed's scenarios to produce forecasts for the full set of more than 1,500 variables found in its own macroeconomic forecasts.

March 2017 Pdf Celia Chen, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Ed Friedman, Adam Kamins
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency

Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Post-US Presidential Election Outlook

Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president’s term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.

November 2016 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Assessing the impact of the EU-Wide Stress Test Results 2016

In this webinar, Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou, Director, Stress Testing Specialist, discuss the results of the latest stress tests.

August 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou
Webinar-on-Demand

Brexit - Economic & Financial Aftermath

The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country’s place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.

June 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Learnings from CCAR 2015 and Beyond

In this webinar, Moody's Analytics experts revisit the CCAR 2015 scenarios, review industry results and discuss how to identify and quantify Systemic Risk.

April 2015 WebPage Mark Zandi, Anna KraynDr. Samuel W. Malone
Presentation

Reverse Stress Testing: Challenges and Benefits

Reverse stress testing is becoming recognised throughout the world for its benefits. This presentation explains what reverse stress testing is and what it can achieve, along with the challenges it presents. Here we show you why reverse stress testing can lead to a deeper understanding of an organisation's susceptibility to risk and why it is a valuable tool for any risk management strategy.

November 2010 Pdf Dr. Christian Thun, Dr. Juan M. Licari, Mark Zandi

Anatomy of a NAFTA Deal

This paper assesses the economic impact of a new NAFTA and the potential economic fallout if the negotiations and NAFTA fail.

Pdf Mark Zandi

Trump Trade War

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the economic fallout of an escalating Trump trade war.

Pdf Mark Zandi