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    canada housing market outlook
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Time for Slower Price Growth

    The housing market in Canada seems to have stabilized. House price growth slowed between early last year and the middle of this year, though home sales and house price growth increased in July and August.

    October 2018 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Stepping on the Brake

    Canada's housing market is starting to feel the effects of federal and provincial government restrictions, and now the Bank of Canada has also started its long-awaited tightening of interest rates

    September 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Slower, Steadier

    The Canadian housing market is going through a period of decompression

    February 2019 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Needed Pause in Demand

    The gradual disinflation in Canada's housing market continues at a steady pace.

    May 2019 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: The Fundamentals Start to Pull

    Canada's housing market seems on course for a soft landing given the lack of deterioration in mortgage debt arrears so far.

    October 2019 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Better Long-Term Perspective

    Canada's housing market has moved past its previous turning point and seems to have settled into an interlude of slowing house price appreciation, reduced sales, and a looser market in general.

    June 2018 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Tough Times Ahead

    Canada's housing market vigor will fade as the COVID-19 pandemic will hurt economic growth in 2020. Housing data from February painted a rosy picture for the Canadian housing market, but that was before COVID-19 fears settled in. Shelter-in-place orders and social distancing have brought house hunting to a virtual halt while layoffs, the collapse in oil prices, and the plunge in equity prices have kept prospective buyers at bay.

    April 2020 Pdf Authors
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Housing Market Weathers the Storm But the Pandemic Will EventuallyTake Its Toll

    The housing market's vigor will fade as high unemployment and lower incomes will restrain buyers' return to the market.

    April 2020 Pdf Authors
    Article

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Slower Growth Over the Next Five Years.

    According to new forecasts from Moody's Analytics, based on the Brookfield RPS House Price Indices, Canadian house prices will experience slower growth over the next five years, but avoid significant declines at the national level forecasts project that a number of metropolitan areas, most notably Vancouver and Edmonton, will experience some modest price declines in the near-term.

    October 2016 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Canada Housing Market Economic Outlook

    Listen to the housing experts and authors of the RPS – Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative Canadian house price forecast solution available, as they provide their insights and report their findings as we enter the spring real estate market.

    May 2019 WebPage Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Canada Housing Outlook: The Tide Starts to Ebb

    According to the Brookfield RPS – Moody's Analytics House Price Forecasts, Canada's housing market has slowed, but is still a long way from a correction.

    May 2017 Pdf Andres Carbacho-Burgos
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Dangers Lurk Amid 2018's Positive Outlook

    Earnings-sensitive markets thrived in 2017. Though late 2016's outlook for 2017's pretax operating profits proved to be fairly accurate, the market value of U.S. common stock still soared higher by 18% to a new record high. Several developments explained why the market value of common equity outran the growth of core profits in 2017. First, the market strongly believes in the efficacy of forthcoming tax law changes and has effectively shrugged off whatever harmful effects may arise from a wider federal budget deficit. Moreover, a recent study from Moody's Investors Service concludes that while most US companies will be better off following the enactment of corporate tax reform, at least a quarter of highly-leveraged companies will be worse off.

    December 2017 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka , Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Interest Rates Suppress Corporate Borrowing

    An abatement of tariff-related fears reduced the uncertainty surrounding a positive outlook for US corporate earnings. In response, the market value of US common stock quickly approached its record high of August 29, 2018. Moreover, high-yield bonds rallied from already richly-priced levels. In turn, a recent composite high-yield bond spread was thinner than 340 basis points (bp) for the first time since the middle of April 2018.

    September 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Fewer Defaults Strongly Favor a Higher Equity Market

    Notwithstanding the occasional jarring setback, the market value of U.S. common stock need only rise by 4.8% in order to return to its record high of January 26, 2018. Such a recovery appears to be well within reach if profits grow. Moreover, the realization of the projected decline by the U.S.' high-yield default rate from April 2018's 3.7% to 1.5% by April 2019 implies a firming of corporate finances that can only facilitate a recovery by share prices.

    May 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Kathryn Asher, Michael Ferlez, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Alaistair Chan, Veasna Kong, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: So Much Debt, So Little Growth

    Today marks the 30th anniversary of the stock market crash of 1987. October 19, 1987's -17.9% daily plunge by the market value of US common stock included a -20.5% plummet by the S&P 500. To better grasp what transpired, consider that a -20% dive by today's Dow Jones Industrial Average would sink the blue-chip average by roughly 4,600 points to something under 20,000 points. Moreover, a -17.9% collapse would slash the market value of common equity by -$4.75 trillion, which approximates 25% of Q2-2017's nominal GDP.

    October 2017 Pdf Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka , John Lonski, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Benign Credit Outlook Comes With Blemishes

    No forecast is free of downside risks. In a manner that is consistent with (1) the recent increase in the incidence of high-yield credit rating downgrades relative to upgrades and (2) a roughly unchanged reading for the average high-yield EDF (expected default frequency) metric since the EDF's month-long average last bottomed in February 2017, Moody's Default Research Group upwardly revised its projected U.S. high-yield default rates for each of the 11 months ended October 2018 by 24 basis points (bp), on average. For example, the projected average default rate for 2018's third quarter was raised from the 2.14% of the November 2017 forecast to 2.40% as of December's projection.

    December 2017 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Kristopher Cramer, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Equity Analysts' Confidence Contrasts With Economists' Skepticism

    Notwithstanding January's bigger-than-expected addition to payrolls, the futures market recently assigned a mere 3% probability to a hiking of fed funds at any point in 2019.

    February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Bernard Yaros, Michael Ferlez
    Article

    Japan Economic Outlook: Challenges Ahead

    Uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2019, and risks are tilted to the downside.

    April 2019 Pdf Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Markets Avoid Great Recession's Calamities

    The issuance of US$-denominated high-yield bonds has already set a record-high for the month of August.

    August 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez, Mark Zandi
    Article

    Vietnam Outlook: Resiliency Amid Emerging Market Uncertainty

    Vietnam's expansion has charged ahead despite the recent financial and trade turmoil inflicting pain across Southeast Asia's emerging markets Moody's Analytics estimates output growth at 6.7% in 2018.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Richly Priced Stocks Fall Short of 1999-2000's Gross Overvaluation

    All else the same, the market value of U.S. common equity needs to rise by another 28% before it matches the severity of its gross overvaluation of 1999-2000.

    February 2020 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Bernard Yaros, Steven Shields
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Surging Equities and Thinner Spreads Favor Higher Treasury Yields

    Earnings-sensitive securities have thrived thus far in 2018. Not only was the market value of U.S. common stock recently up by 4.5% since year-end 2017, but a composite high-yield bond spread narrowed by 23 basis points to 336 bp. The latter brings attention to how the accompanying composite speculative-grade bond yield fell from year-end 2017's 5.82% to a recent 5.72% despite the 5-year Treasury yield's increase from 2.21% to 2.39%, respectively.

    January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Alaistair Chan, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Japan Outlook: Brave Face Fronting Oncoming Challenges

    Moody's Analytics outlook for Japan suggests GDP will grow near its potential pace, which hovers from 0.5% to 1%.

    January 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Borrowing Restraint Likely Despite Lower Interest Rates

    According to the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States”, first-quarter 2019's outstanding debt of U.S. nonfinancial corporations advanced by 8.1% year-over-year to a new record high of $9.926 trillion.

    June 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Brendan Meighan, Bernard Yaros, Steven Shields
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Return of Christmas Past Does Not Impend

    More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Bernard Yaros, Michael Ferlez
    Article

    ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

    We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

    February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Global Collapse by Bond Yields Stems From Worldwide Slowdown

    Both the corporate bond and equity markets responded positively to the latest drop by Treasury bond yields and the likelihood of at least two reductions of the federal funds rate during the remainder of 2019.

    June 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Profits Determine Effect of High Corporate Debt to GDP Ratio

    Profits Determine Effect of High Corporate Debt to GDP Ratio: As of 2018's second quarter, the gross debt of U.S. nonfinancial corporate businesses was at an unprecedented 45.8% of GDP, where the ratio is a moving yearlong average. Data from the “Financial Accounts of the United States,” formerly known as the “Flow of Funds Accounts,” is best viewed from the perspective of a moving yearlong average mostly because the quarterly data are frequently subject to substantial revisions, where even the moving yearlong averages can be altered considerably.

    September 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Franklin Kim, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Faster Loan Growth Would Bode Poorly for Corporate Credit Quality

    Forecasts of a prolonged depreciation of the dollar exchange rate may be overlooking to the increased importance of U.S. spending as a driver of global economic growth.

    July 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Ryan Sweet, Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Likelihood of a 1.88% Fed Funds Rate by End of July Soars

    The release of second quarter corporate earnings is moving into full gear and investors are not entirely happy with the results.

    July 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez, Ryan Sweet
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