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    Incorporation of CECL Into Stress Testing and Capital Planning

    Join our experts as they review the business challenges that CECL presents beyond the reporting date numbers.

    Moody's Analytics subject matter experts, Laurent Birade, Olivier Brucker and Ed Young discuss the role of capital planning and stress testing after CECL.  Also discussed are forecasting options for CECL estimates and understanding the impact of COVID-19 scenario, including the results of a benchmark study.

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    Whitepaper

    Whitepaper: CECL Build – Is it Enough?

    In this paper, we set out to estimate, based on 14 top financial institutions, a lower- and upper-bound current expected credit loss (CECL) estimate as of March 31, 2020.

    August 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, Phillip Lai
    Article

    CECL Benchmark Q2 2020

    In this paper, we provide an update to the previously published research on our triangulation framework and how the set of banks in our select peer group performed relative to expectations of increased reserve build.

    August 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, Phillip Lai
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Managing the Shock to Commercial Real Estate: A Practical Approach to Quantify Loan Performance

    Join us for an in-depth analysis of CRE loan performance and credit risks under Moody’s latest economic and real estate scenarios.

    July 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, Sumit Grover, Christian Henkel, James Partridge
    Article

    CECL Build – Is it Enough?

    In this paper, we set out to triangulate on a reasonable range of reserves for the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL). This methodology can be highly useful in times of uncertainty.

    June 2020 Pdf Laurent Birade, Phillip Lai
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Adjusting Capital Planning and Strategies for a COVID-19 Scenario

    Nobody expected the end of the economic cycle to happen so suddenly, but adjustments will be required given the materiality of the events unfolding. How can you quickly adjust for an ever-evolving scenario where today’s assumptions may not hold tomorrow.

    May 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, Olivier Brucker, Ed Young
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Unlocking Trade Credit Limits for Enhanced Returns

    The traditional loss-minimizing approach to managing corporate trade credit can keep write-offs low but may be overly conservative.

    May 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, Michael Denton, Gustavo Jimenez
    Whitepaper

    Stress Testing Under COVID-19

    In this paper, we propose an alternative simple, coherent methodology that allows us to forecast and stress test the entire balance sheet and income statement for all of the roughly 6,000 banks in the United States consistently.

    April 2020 WebPage Olivier Brucker, Sunayana Mehra, Ed Young
    Article

    Unfunded Commitments: Unintended Consequences in Times of Turmoil

    The COVID-19 pandemic has pushed many commercial entities to increase their borrowing and drawdown on their lines of credit. We use bank call report data to analyze the potential impact to capital levels at US financial institutions.

    April 2020 Pdf Laurent Birade, James Partridge, Alex Cannon
    Article

    Dual risk rating and origination strategies: optional (until they are not)?

    During the last financial crisis, some of the better-performing commercial credits were originated under extremely conservative origination policies This paper explores risk rating options and advises what you can do now to enhance your origination process.

    April 2020 WebPage Laurent Birade, James Partridge
    Article

    The Economics of Wholesale Credit

    Traditionally, corporate trade credit limits have been set based on customer size, an internal or external credit score, and a qualitative sense of risk appetite. These limits have been effective in minimizing write-offs, principally because they are conservative.

    March 2020 WebPage Michael Denton, Laurent Birade, Gustavo Jimenez
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