Moody's Analytics is named a Category Leader in this report that assesses 10 leading vendors of model validation solutions and is recognized for offering best-in-class capabilities in all seven categories, including data, input, model analytics/pricing, and suitability.
We test the early warning power of the CreditEdge Deterioration Probability (DP) metric for Fallen Angel downgrades.
The risk function has emerged as an important strategic decision-making partner for critical functions such as business development, finance, operations, and technology.
Roshni Patel, Mehna Raissi, Jin Oh
Regulatory compliance has significantly altered the model development and validation landscape, while increasing the amount of data to be validated.
Moody's Analytics provides financial intelligence and analytical tools supported by risk expertise, expansive information resources, and the application of new technology. Its solutions, made up of research, data, software and professional services, are assembled with the aim of delivering a seamless customer experience.
RiskCalc™ EDF™ (Expected Default Frequency) values and agency ratings are widely used credit risk measures. RiskCalc EDF values typically measure default risk for private companies, while agency ratings are only available for rated companies. A RiskCalc EDF value measures a company's standalone credit risk based on financial statement information, while an agency rating considers qualitative factors such as Business Profile, Financial Policy, external support, and country-related risks. Moody's Analytics new Sovereign & Size-Adjusted EDF-Implied Rating Template combines RiskCalc EDF values with additional factors to provide a rating comparable to agency ratings for private companies. The new template applies to RiskCalc EDF values across numerous geographies and regulatory environments. With the new template, users can generate a rating more comparable to an agency rating than RiskCalc EDF values or EDF-implied ratings. Analyzing data from 3,900+ companies in 60+ countries, we find that sovereign rating and total asset size, in addition to EDF value, have a statistically significant impact on an agency rating — our quantitative template incorporating these three variables reliably estimates agency ratings in a robust fashion.
This report outlines a practical approach for using RiskCalc EDF credit measures to effectively monitor large portfolios of private firms and to proactively identify at-risk names. The RiskCalc Early Warning Toolkit Excel add-in is an easy to use, yet comprehensive tool that allows users to focus costly and scarce resources on a highly targeted selection of the most at-risk names in their portfolios. This research for private firms compliments previous research on Early Warning Toolkit for public firms. The Early Warning Toolkit identifies at-risk names within a private firm portfolio well before default, using a number of different EDF-related risk metrics.
This article is intended as guidance for transfer pricing professionals in Luxembourg who are considering the equity-at-risk following the calculation of a loan's expected loss when using Moody's Analytics tools. This article does not provide final decision-making processes, which remain at the discretion of the transfer pricing professional, according to the specific case. This article is intended to create elements of thought and paths to economically and financially sound results.
Identifying At-Risk Firms in Your Private Firm Portfolio
Join us as Lead Auto Economist, Michael Vogan examines the recent performance of the used car market and lease residuals portfolios.
Private firm default rates have declined steadily during the past five years. At 1.4%, the rolling 12-month default rate is down 74% from its September 2009 peak of 5.2%. This trend has been driven primarily by a decline in the charge-off rate, now at its lowest level in ten years. In addition, the percentage of borrowers in non-accrual status has decreased 56% since September 2009. The number of borrowers rated “Substandard” has seen a steady increase since the first quarter of 2016, above pre-crisis levels, reflecting banks' cautious lending practices.
Irina Korablev, Lin Moon, Stephanie Yu
Our experts, Masha Muzyka and Jin Oh, cover transition disclosures focus areas, potential implication of the methodology chosen to the expected disclosures and ECL disclosure best practices emerging to date.