Featured Product

    ECB Paper Introduces Structural Quantile VAR Model for Stress Testing

    November 18, 2019

    ECB published a working paper that presents a model for forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression (VAR). The authors have developed a quantile VAR model and used it to forecast and stress test the interaction between real and financial variables in the euro area.

    The paper develops the general quantile structural vector autoregressive framework. It provides the links with standard OLS structural VAR, derives the asymptotic distributions, and shows how to do forecasting with quantile structural VAR. Finally, it estimates the quantile VAR model for the euro area and performs a stress testing exercise and the counterfactual analysis before Lehman’s bankruptcy, before presenting the conclusions. Unlike standard VAR, which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. The authors show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive structural system. The model is estimated using real and financial variables. The dynamic properties of the system change across quantiles. This is relevant for stress testing exercises, whose goal is to forecast the tail behavior of the economy when hit by large financial and real shocks.

    Unlike OLS VAR, quantile VAR models each quantile of the distribution. This provides the natural modeling environment to design particular stress scenarios and test the impact that they have on the economy. A stress scenario is just a sequence of tail quantile shocks, which can be chosen arbitrarily by the policy maker or calibrated to mimic previous crisis episodes. The authors find the presence of strong asymmetries in the transmission of financial shocks in the euro area, with negative financial shocks being particularly harmful when coupled with negative real shocks. By modeling the average interaction between the random variables, OLS VAR models miss most of these detrimental interactions.

     

    Related Link: Working Paper (PDF)

    Keywords: Europe, EU, Banking, Insurance, Stress Testing, Modeling, Quantile VAR Model, ECB

    Featured Experts
    Related Articles
    News

    US Agencies Issue Several Regulatory and Reporting Updates

    The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (FED) adopted the final rule on Adjustable Interest Rate (LIBOR) Act.

    January 04, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    ECB Issues Multiple Reports and Regulatory Updates for Banks

    The European Central Bank (ECB) published an updated list of supervised entities, a report on the supervision of less significant institutions (LSIs), a statement on macro-prudential policy.

    January 01, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    HKMA Keeps List of D-SIBs Unchanged, Makes Other Announcements

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) published a circular on the prudential treatment of crypto-asset exposures, an update on the status of transition to new interest rate benchmarks.

    December 30, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EU Issues FAQs on Taxonomy Regulation, Rules Under CRD, FICOD and SFDR

    The European Commission (EC) adopted the standards addressing supervisory reporting of risk concentrations and intra-group transactions, benchmarking of internal approaches, and authorization of credit institutions.

    December 29, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    CBIRC Revises Measures on Corporate Governance Supervision

    The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) issued rules to manage the risk of off-balance sheet business of commercial banks and rules on corporate governance of financial institutions.

    December 29, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    HKMA Publications Address Sustainability Issues in Financial Sector

    The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) made announcements to address sustainability issues in the financial sector.

    December 23, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EBA Updates Address Basel and NPL Requirements for Banks

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) published regulatory standards on identification of a group of connected clients (GCC) as well as updated the lists of identified financial conglomerates.

    December 22, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    ESMA Publishes 2022 ESEF XBRL Taxonomy and Conformance Suite

    The General Board of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB), at its December meeting, issued an updated risk assessment via the quarterly risk dashboard and held discussions on key policy priorities to address the systemic risks in the European Union.

    December 22, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    FCA Sets up ESG Committee, Imposes Penalties, and Issues Other Updates

    The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is seeking comments, until December 21, 2022, on the draft guidance for firms to support existing mortgage borrowers.

    December 20, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    FSB Reports Assess NBFI Sector and Progress on LIBOR Transition

    The Financial Stability Board (FSB) published a report that assesses progress on the transition from the Interbank Offered Rates, or IBORs, to overnight risk-free rates as well as a report that assesses global trends in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector.

    December 20, 2022 WebPage Regulatory News
    RESULTS 1 - 10 OF 8697