In this article, we model stressed LGDs as a function of macroeconomic drivers and find that LGDs sometimes lead PDs by several months during crisis periods.
We construct and examine new origination of C&I loans to middle-market borrowers using the Loan Accounting System data extracted from Moody's Analytics Credit Research Database (CRD/LAS). We find that C&I loan origination declines during the Great Recession and recovers soon after. The magnitude of the decline and the speed of the recovery varies across segments. For example, new lending to the financial industry decreases more than to the non-financial industry during the recession and recovers faster afterwards. Another example, new originations during the recession consists predominantly of short-term loans, while long-term lending becomes more dominant post crisis. This finding suggests that banks are using loan tenor as a means to mitigate risk during crises, at times even more so than credit quality.
Coverage this month includes the BCBS's consultative document and discussion paper on Basel III; the EBA's final guidelines on implicit support for securitization transactions; the SEC's adopted rules for open-ended, mutual, and exchange traded funds; and more.
In this article, we introduce a new risk management tool focused on network connectivity between financial institutions.