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Jun Chen is a senior director at Moody’s Analytics where he leads the commercial real estate (CRE) research team. His team conducts empirical research and develops quantitative models focused on CRE loan credit risk for Moody’s Analytics product and service offerings.

Jun has many years of experience and is an established domain expert in the real estate finance industry. His expertise covers a wide range, including areas such as commercial real estate market analysis, credit risk modeling, stress testing, and portfolio management. His work has been published widely in academic and professional journals and conferences. Jun has a PhD with a specialty in real estate finance and urban economics from the University of Southern California. He has an MA and a BA from Tongji University.

Related Insights
Whitepaper

Estimating Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Stressed Loss Measures Under Federal Reserve 2017 Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) Scenarios

For the 2017 CCAR program, the Federal Reserve published three macroeconomic and financial scenarios to be used in stress testing 34 CCAR financial institutions. In this study, we analyze 27 institutions, with a total of more than $760 billion in exposures to commercial real estate loans, using Moody's CMM Stress Testing framework. This report describes how we derive credit loss estimates for the CRE loan portfolios held by CCAR firms. This is our first study leveraging the loan-level commercial banks' data collected via Moody's Analytics CRE Credit Research Database (CRD™). Our analysis estimates that the expected nine-quarter, cumulative CRE portfolio loss through the first quarter of 2019 is 6.5% under the CCAR 2017 Severely Adverse Scenario. The primary factors behind the higher loss estimate compared to last year's stressed scenario (5.1% loss) is that this year's scenario features a slightly more severe economic downturn and a significantly larger decline in commercial real estate prices.

March 2017 Pdf Megha Watugala, Dr. Jun Chen, Wenjing Wang
Presentation

CRE CECL Methodologies Webinar Slides

In this presentation for the CECL Quantification webinar series, we discuss how commercial real estate (CRE) models and methodologies can be leveraged to fulfill CECL requirements, and key considerations in transitioning these models.

February 2017 Pdf Dr. Jun Chen, Christian Henkel
Webinar-on-Demand

CRE CECL Methodologies

The second in our CECL Quantification webinar series, this webinar discussed how commercial real estate (CRE) models and methodologies can be leveraged to fulfill CECL requirements, and key considerations in transitioning these models.

February 2017 WebPage Dr. Jun Chen, Christian Henkel