FED Releases Hypothetical Scenarios for Stress Test Exercise in 2020

The severely adverse scenario and baseline scenarios are not forecasts. The severely adverse scenario describes a hypothetical sets of events designed to assess the strength of banking organizations. Similarly, the baseline scenario is in line with average projections from surveys of economic forecasters. Each scenario includes 28 variables—such as gross domestic product, the unemployment rate, stock market prices, and interest rates—covering domestic and international economic activity. The severely adverse scenario this year features a severe global recession in which the U.S. unemployment rate rises by 6.5 percentage points to 10% and elevated stress in corporate debt markets and commercial real estate. The scenarios start in the first quarter of 2020 and extend through the first quarter of 2023.

Banks with large trading operations will be required to factor in a global market shock component as part of their scenarios. This year's shock features, among other things, heightened stress to trading book exposures to leveraged loans. Additionally, firms with substantial trading or processing operations will be required to incorporate a counterparty default scenario component. The counterparty default scenario component involves the instantaneous and unexpected default of the largest counterparty of a firm. 

The stress test exercise ensures that large banks have adequate capital and processes so that they can continue lending to households and businesses, even during a severe recession. The stress test framework of FED consists of the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, also known as CCAR, and the Dodd-Frank Act stress tests. 

Related Links

• Press Release
• Stress Test Scenarios (PDF)
• Related CCAR Data

Keywords: Americas, US, Banking, Stress Testing, DFAST, CCAR, 2020 Stress Test, Severely Adverse Scenario, Baseline Scenario, Stress Testing Scenarios, FED