Featured Product

    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Moody's Analytics Insights

    illuminated stock market numbers

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Slower, Steadier

    The Canadian housing market is going through a period of decompression

    illuminated charts and graphs

    Latin American Currency Highlights: Determining the Risk of a Large Currency Depreciation for 15 Countries

    Latin American countries have a shaky history when it comes to stable foreign exchange. Several countries are facing economic and political upheaval, which may significantly impact the value of their currencies. Using the Moody's Analytics Currency Depreciation Indicator, we evaluate the coming year for 15 Latin American countries.

    insight default image

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Time for Slower Price Growth

    The housing market in Canada seems to have stabilized. House price growth slowed between early last year and the middle of this year, though home sales and house price growth increased in July and August.

    Graphic blue house in a line of white houses

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: A Better Long-Term Perspective

    Canada's housing market has moved past its previous turning point and seems to have settled into an interlude of slowing house price appreciation, reduced sales, and a looser market in general.

    illuminated charts

    Default Risk Premium in the Equity Market

    This paper explores the default risk premium within the equity market. To our knowledge, this is the first study that uses the commercially-available structural model, Moody's Analytics Public Firm Model, EDF9TM, to explain the cross-section of stock returns. While distressed stocks have attracted attention in the past for their anomalously low returns, we also identify outperformance of “safe” stocks. The notions of safe and distressed are both defined in the context of Distance-to-Default within the Moody's Analytics Public Firm Model(also known as KMV). Our findings revisit the notion that value, size, and momentum price the financial distress risk. We find that safe stocks outperform the market, and risky stocks significantly anomaly, our factor is not a proxy for the low volatility factor.

    Financial data on monitor

    Weekly Market Outlook: Debt-to-Profits Outperforms Debt-to-GDP

    In 2017's final quarter, the 7.7% yearly advance by nonfinancial-corporate profits from current production outran the accompanying 6.6% increase of nonfinancial-corporate debt. The record shows that if pretax operating profits continue to outpace corporate debt, corporate credit quality will improve. The correlation between the high-yield default rate's quarter-long average and the yearlong ratio of debt-tooperating profits for US nonfinancial corporations is a meaningful 0.82.

    Figure 1: Forthcoming Acceleration by US Government Debt May Be Offset By Below-Trend
Growth of Non-Federal Debt

    Weekly Market Outlook: Borrowing Restraint Elsewhere Makes Room for Federal Debt Surge

    Partly as a means of offsetting the loss of business activity to deleveraging by households, businesses, as well as state and local governments, the federal government's share of the U.S.' broadest estimate of public and private nonfinancial-sector debt has soared from year-end 2007's 18% to the 34% of 2017's third quarter. The latter share is the highest since 1960's third quarter.

    Figure 3: Core PCE Price Index Inflation's Trend Moves in Direction Taken by the Personal Savings Rate

    Weekly Market Outlook: Corporate Bonds Beg to Differ With Their Equity Brethren

    Thus far, the corporate credit market has been relatively steady amid equity market turmoil. Corporate credit's comparative calm stems from expectations of continued profit growth that underpins a still likely slide by the high-yield default rate. The record shows that 90% of the year-to-year declines by the default rate were joined by year-to-year growth for the market value of U.S. common stock.

    sketches of sedans, SUVs

    Wholesale Used-Car Price Report December 2017

    Wholesale used-vehicle auction sales waned in November, while the average transaction price fell by 0.53% from a year ago to $10,556. The surge in replacement demand after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma appears to be fading, resulting in prices and sales normalizing from the strong performance in October and September.

    Average price-to-MSRP ratio by fuel type, by sale age in years

    Electric Vehicle Residual Value Outlook

    Moody's Analytics Lead Auto Economist Michael Vogan examine what factors—both macroeconomic and technological—are causing residuals in the electric vehicle market to under perform.

    Pencil sketch of car

    Auto Finance Insights - October 2017

    Auto lending growth continues to slow. Despite higher pay and solid returns from equity markets, consumers are finding that new cars are losing luster as objects worth their hard-earned cash. The tightening of lending standards has obvious ramifications for the auto industry as a whole, where expansionary credit cycles typically support new vehicle sales.

    Red house in a group of white houses

    Canada Housing Market Outlook: Stepping on the Brake

    Canada's housing market is starting to feel the effects of federal and provincial government restrictions, and now the Bank of Canada has also started its long-awaited tightening of interest rates