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Moody's Analytics Insights

Article
Business People Analyzing Statistics Financial Concept

Assigning Probabilities to Macroeconomic Alternative Scenarios

In this article, we describe the methodology used by Moody's Analytics to assign probabilities to its regularly produced alternative macroeconomic scenarios and to calibrate these scenarios by taking into consideration recent post-crisis economic conditions.

September 2018
Moody's Analytics

Whitepaper
Businessmen and woman standing together by railing conversing

Insight, IFRS 17, and Innovative Technologies - Drivers of Change in the Insurance Industry

Performance optimization through business insight, dealing with IFRS 17 in a post-Solvency II world, and the challenges associated with stress testing for insurance firms in the US. These were the focus areas for Moody's Analytics at this year's Moody's Insurance Summits in London and New York.

July 2018

Whitepaper
Figure 7 CCM breakdown.

A Composite Capital Measure Unifying Business Decision Rules in the Face of Regulatory Requirements Under New Accounting Standards

Prudent credit risk management ensures institutions maintain sufficient capital and limit the possibility of a capital breach. With CECL and IFRS 9, the resulting trend toward greater credit earnings volatility raises uncertainty in capital supply, ultimately causing an increase in required capital. It is ever more challenging for institutions to manage their top-of-the house capital while steering their business to achieve the desired performance level. This paper introduces an approach that quantifies the additional capital buffer an institution requires, beyond the required regulatory minimum, to limit the likelihood of a capital breach. In addition, we introduce a new measure that allocates capital and recognizes an instrument's regulatory capital requirements, loss allowance, economic concentration risks, and the instrument's contribution to the uncertainty in capital supply and demand. In-line with the Composite Capital Measure introduced in Levy and Xu (2017), this extended measure includes far-reaching implications for business decisions. Using a series of case studies, we demonstrate the limitations of alternative measures and how institutions can optimize performance by allocating capital and making business decisions according to the new measure.

May 2018
Dr. Amnon Levy, Xuan Liang, Dr. Pierre Xu

Whitepaper
Average projected LGD from LossCalc 4.0, by industry, North America Firms

Measuring and Managing the Impact of IFRS 9 and CECL Requirements on Dynamics in Allowance, Earnings, and Bank Capital

Reserving for loan loss is one of the most important accounting aspects for banks. Its objective is to cover estimated losses on impaired financial instruments due to defaults and non-payment. Reserve measurement affects both the balance sheet and income statement. It impacts earnings, capital, dividends and bonuses, and attracts the attention of bank stakeholders ranging from the board of directors and regulators to equity investors. In response to the so-called “too-little, too-late” problem experienced with loan loss reserve during the Great Financial Crisis, accounting standard setters now require that banks provision against loan loss based on expected credit losses (ECL). Arguably, calculating the Expected Credit Loss Model under IFRS 9 and CECL presents a momentous accounting change for banks, with the new standards coming into effect sometime between 2018 and 2021, depending on the jurisdiction.

March 2018

Interview
Image of hand pointing to sketches of business numbers

Regulatory Constraints: How Increased Requirements Are Evolving CPM

Amnon Levy, managing director and head of portfolio and balance sheet research at Moody's Analytics, discusses the evolving expectations of institutions for credit portfolio management, as well as how it is being altered and adapted amid greater impact from new regulatory and technological advancements.

February 2018

Presentation
Loss Allowance Level ad the Beginning of Each Year

IFRS 9: Challenges with Validation and Benchmarking Presentation Slides

In this presentation, our experts discuss risk measurement tools and techniques to help with IFRS 9 validation and/or benchmarking to market best practice and the communication of such validation to senior stakeholders.

November 2017
Alexis Hamar, Roshni Patel

Webinar-on-Demand
Retro Photo Of Composite Greek Style Columns

IFRS 9: Challenges with Validation and Benchmarking

In this webinar, our experts discuss risk measurement tools and techniques to help with IFRS 9 validation and/or benchmarking to market best practice and the communication of such validation to senior stakeholders.

November 2017
Alexis Hamar, Roshni Patel

Presentation
Global Credit Growth and US, UK Bankruptcies

IFRS 9 at the Doorstep. Are Corporates Ready for the Changes? Presentation Slides

In this presentation, our experts discuss what Corporates need to consider while preparing for IFRS 9 implementation. IFRS 9 changes accounting for financial instruments and creates credit loss forecasting challenges. The new impairment model will likely increase the initial amount and ongoing volatility of provisions. Many corporations may require new processes and tools to manage to the IFRS 9 standard.

October 2017
Metin Epozdemir

Webinar-on-Demand
Ancient Greek iconic column with scrolling volutes

IFRS 9 at the Doorstep. Are Corporates Ready for the Changes?

In this webinar, our experts discuss what Corporates need to consider while preparing for IFRS 9 implementation. IFRS 9 changes accounting for financial instruments and creates credit loss forecasting challenges. The new impairment model will likely increase the initial amount and ongoing volatility of provisions.

October 2017
Metin Epozdemir

Webinar-on-Demand
Red chess piece standing among toppled chess pieces.

Reducing Volatility in IFRS9 Provisions & Earnings, Through Governance and Credit Decision

As preliminary IFRS9 results are being released, many institutions have concerns about variations in point-in-time credit assessment and forward-looking credit forecasts. These measurements are responsive to the economic environment, and highly dependent on changes in an institution's macroeconomic outlook.

October 2017
Roshni Patel,  Pierre Gaudin

Webinar-on-Demand
The Statue of Justice symbol, legal law concept image

IFRS 9 Solutions for Structured Finance: SPPI, Staging, and Impairment

Listen to Domitille de Coincy and Dimitri Kaltsas of Moody's Analytics as they discuss the IFRS 9 methodology for structured finance, the SPPI test for structured finance securities, including criteria, interpretations, and credit risk comparisons, and staging and impairment calculations for structured finance securities.

July 2017
Domitille de Coincy, Dimitri Kaltsas

Article
Green apple cutting in the shape of pie chart on back board

Predicting Earnings: CECL's Implications for Allowance Forecasts

In this article, we demonstrate the effect of the new allowance framework by quantifying allowances and credit earnings volatility for a sample portfolio.

July 2017