Moody's Analytics Insights

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Weekly Market Outlook: Borrowing Restraint Likely Despite Lower Interest Rates

According to the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States”, first-quarter 2019's outstanding debt of U.S. nonfinancial corporations advanced by 8.1% year-over-year to a new record high of $9.926 trillion.

June 2019
John Lonski,  Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell , Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields

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Weekly Market Outlook: The Fed Cured 1998's Yield Curve Inversion

The implied probability of a fed funds rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's July 31 meeting recently soared to 72% mostly in response to Jerome Powell's apparent willingness to heed the recessionary warning of a possibly persistently inverted yield curve.

June 2019
John Lonski,  Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell , Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet , Michael Ferlez

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Extended Yield Curve Inversion Would Presage Wide Spreads and Many Defaults

Since May 3, or just prior to the latest episode of trade-related stress, the market value of U.S. common stock had plunged by 5.7% as of May 29's close for a paper loss of $1.735 trillion.

May 2019
John Lonski,  Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell , Faraz Syed, Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet , Michael Ferlez

Webinar-on-Demand

Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

May 2019

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Business Debt's Mild Rise Differs Drastically from 2002-2007's Mortgage Surge

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently addressed the issue of business borrowing. In a May 20 speech, Mr. Powell suggested that, by itself, the new record high ratio of nonfinancial-corporate business debt to GDP is much less of a risk to systemic financial liquidity than was home mortgage debt's record high 100% of disposable personal income from 2007.

May 2019
John Lonski,  Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell , Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Ryan Sweet , Steven Shields

Webinar-on-Demand

Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

May 2019

Whitepaper
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Chartis Research | Moody's Analytics Model Validation Vendor Analysis Report

Moody's Analytics is named a Category Leader in this report that assesses 10 leading vendors of model validation solutions and is recognized for offering best-in-class capabilities in all seven categories, including data, input, model analytics/pricing, and suitability.

May 2019

Article
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Weekly Market Outlook: Earnings Slump Would Unmask Dangers of High Leverage

According to the Federal Reserve's “Financial Stability Report” of May 2019, not only has the outstanding debt of nonfinancial businesses outpaced nominal GDP during the past 10 years (or since 2008), but the growth of debt has been skewed toward riskier firms.

May 2019
John Lonski,  Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell , Barbara Teixeira Araujo,  Mark ZandiRyan Sweet , Michael Ferlez

Whitepaper
landing-architecture-futuristic

Chartis Research | Moody's Analytics Model Validation Vendor Analysis Report

Moody's Analytics is named a Category Leader in this report that assesses 10 leading vendors of model validation solutions and is recognized for offering best-in-class capabilities in all seven categories, including data, input, model analytics/pricing, and suitability.

May 2019

Webinar-on-Demand

RPS– Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook Webinar

Listen to the housing experts and authors of the RPS – Moody's Analytics Housing Outlook, the most comprehensive and authoritative Canadian house price forecast solution available, as they provide their insights and report their findings as we enter the spring real estate market.

May 2019
Moody's Analytics

Article

Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

May 2019

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Dealing With Fallen Angel Risk

We test the early warning power of the CreditEdge Deterioration Probability (DP) metric for Fallen Angel downgrades.

May 2019