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    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Whitepaper

    The use of carrier approximation methods for projected capital metrics with an application to the IFRS 17 risk adjustment.

    In this paper we explore the use of the carrier approximation for the multi-year projection of risk and capital metrics. Through an annuity book run-off case study we outline the key factors influencing the performance of the carrier method when applied to the projected IFRS 17 risk adjustment and the projected Solvency II solvency capital ratio (SCR).

    August 2019
    Article
    Image of city buildings and sky

    Weekly Market Outlook: Lowest Investment-Grade Industrial Company Bond Yields since 1956

    The latest rally by Treasury bonds drove Moody's long-term industrial company bond yields down to new 63-year lows. On August 14, the single-A industrial company bond yield closed at 3.30% and the Baa industrial yield ended at 4.08%.

    August 2019
    Webinar-on-Demand

    The Economic Implications of Climate Change

    The effects of climate change will intensify throughout the century, resulting in profound changes in climate patterns across the globe.

    August 2019
    Article
    Glass globe on printed charts

    Weekly Market Outlook: Sluggish Business Revenues Pressure Corporate Credit Quality

    It was a tumultuous week. Volatility will lurk until trade issues are resolved. Perhaps the best markets can hope for on the trade front is a long-lived truce.

    August 2019
    Article
    Stock market bond figures on board

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Weekly Market Outlook: Successful Rate Cuts Are Short and Shallow; Failures Are Deep and Extended

    Since 1984, there have been seven distinct series of Fed rate cuts. Four of the seven rate cut episodes occurred amid a mature business cycle upturn and managed to stave off a recession. They happened in 1985, 1987, 1995, and 1998.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Weekly Market Outlook: Faster Loan Growth Would Bode Poorly for Corporate Credit Quality

    Forecasts of a prolonged depreciation of the dollar exchange rate may be overlooking to the increased importance of U.S. spending as a driver of global economic growth.

    July 2019
    Article
    Plane flying over office buildings

    Weekly Market Outlook: Likelihood of a 1.88% Fed Funds Rate by End of July Soars

    The release of second quarter corporate earnings is moving into full gear and investors are not entirely happy with the results.

    July 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Weekly Market Outlook: Market Implied Ratings Differ on the Likely Direction of Baa3 Ratings

    Baa3-grade issuers constitute the bottom rung of the investment-grade ratings ladder. Once a Baa3 rating is subject to a “fallen angel” downgrade to speculative-grade, investors who are mandated to hold only investment-grade obligations must sell the now high-yield debt.

    July 2019
    Webinar-on-Demand
    Business and financial report

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default

    The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

    July 2019
    Article
    Climate Change

    Economic Implications of Climate Change

    We examine the physical risk and quantify the economic costs of climate change using the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model.

    June 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Weekly Market Outlook-Below-Trend Spreads Bank on Profits Growth, Lower Rates and Healthy Equities

    Sequential declines by the Bureau of Economic Analysis' quarterly estimate of nonfinancial-corporate profits from current production, or core pretax profits, often reveal little about the current or future states of the business and credit cycles.

    June 2019