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    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Moody's Analytics Insights

    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Evaluating Senator Warren's Social Security Reform Plan

    This brief paper outlines Senator Warren's reform plan and evaluates its actuarial, macroeconomic and distributional impacts.

    September 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    A Comparative Analysis of Household Credit Data From the New York Fed and Moody's Analytics

    The importance of accurate and timely data on household credit conditions became clear during the global financial crisis. Quickly rising delinquencies and foreclosures should have been a warning to lenders and regulators to significantly tighten the spigot on new lending that was wide open during the pre-crisis boom. However, partially due to data limitations, many financial institutions were surprised by the weakening of household balance sheets. By the time they realized the severity of the problem, it was too late to act.

    August 2019
    Presentation
    illuminated charts and graphs

    CECL Methodologies: Loss Rate Model and Cohort Analysis

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019
    Presentation
    illuminated charts and graphs

    CECL: Determining Correct Segments for Loss Pooling

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019
    Presentation
    illuminated charts and graphs

    CECL Methodologies: Discounted Cash Flow Approach

    Presented at the Credit Union National Association, Ohio Credit Union League

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Household Credit Conditions Never Better

    More than a decade after the financial crisis that was caused in significant part by debt-burdened households, there is no indication that household debt will be at the center of the next economic recession.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    Reasonable and Supportable Forecasts - From Principles to Practice

    With many of the larger SEC filers well ahead in their CECL preparations and gearing up for validation, we examine how the requirements of an R&S forecast and reversion may be interpreted.

    August 2019
    Article
    illuminated charts and graphs

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019
    Article
    Stock market bond figures on board

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019
    Presentation
    Double exposed photo of hand working on laptop with charts overlay

    IFRS 9 for Cooperatives

    Presentation from the World Credit Union Conference July 28, 2019 - Agenda: How is IFRS 9 Different? \ Implementation Checklist for Cooperatives \ Impacts on Regulatory Capital and Volatility

    July 2019