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Weekly Market Outlook: Upside Risks to the U.S. Economy

The U.S. economy has weakened in early 2019, fanning concerns that the expansion is running out of steam. However, a number of factors that are contributing to this apparent downshift are temporary.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Brendan Meighan, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Weekly Market Outlook: Outstandings and Rating Changes Supply Radically Different Default Outlooks

The credit ratings distribution of outstanding U.S. high-yield corporate bond debt and the distribution of high-yield credit rating revisions now deliver conflicting messages regarding the high-yield default rate's likely direction.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields

Perspectivas Económicas América Central 2019

América Central continuará siendo la subregión con mayor crecimiento en el 2019, dada su estrecha relación con el mercado estadounidense y los aún favorables precios de las materias primas.

April 2019 Pdf Alfredo Coutiño

Weekly Market Outlook: High Leverage Offset by Ample Coverage of Net Interest Expense

The faster growth of nonfinancial-corporate debt relative to both nominal GDP and the group's core pretax profits has been offset by the comparatively slow growth of net interest expense.

April 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet

Weekly Market Outlook: Subdued Outlooks for Revenues and Profits Portend Lower Interest Rates

Recession fears abound yet the prices of earnings-sensitive securities and industrial commodities have held up reasonably well. Indicators of financial distress have yet to warn of sharply lower share prices and a surge in corporate debt defaults. Apparently markets are confident in the remedial powers of lower interest rates.

March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

A Framework for Disclosing Period-over-Period CECL-Estimate Changes

While many institutions are currently in the throes of implementing the current expected credit loss (CECL) accounting standard, some are thinking ahead and some that are not. CECL will have an unavoidable impact on management disclosures, specifically around explaining period-over-period changes in allowance.

March 2019 WebPage Laurent Birade

Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Will Cut Rates If 10-Year Yield Breaks Under 2.4%

The Treasury bond market was stunned by the drop in the Federal Open Market Committee's “dot chart” projection for year-end 2019 fed funds' midpoint from the 2.875% of December 2018's projection to 2.375% as of March 2019's projection.

March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Caught in the Cross Fire: Latin America Navigates Global Trade Risks

We assess the economic consequences for Latin America should the trade truce between the U.S. and China fail to hold.

Global Outlook: Weaker Growth, Pervasive Downside Risks

Global economic growth has passed the peak and is transitioning to a slower pace after being on an upswing for more than two years.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell, Ruth Stroppiana

Weekly Market Outlook: Riskier Outlook May Slow Corporate Debt Growth in 2019

The latest version of the Federal Reserve's “Financial Accounts of the United States” was released on March 7. As of 2018's final quarter, the total outstandings of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt grew by 5.1% year-to-year to a record high $51.796 trillion.

March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Trade Tensions Test China's Provincial Economies

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody's Analytics model of China's provincial economies, we assessed the potential fallout for China's provinces if trade negotiations between the U.S. and China break down and tensions reignite.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Weekly Market Outlook: Replay of Late 1998's Drop by Interest Rates May Materialize

Weakness abroad and a faltering demand for U.S. output now put downward pressure on both earnings-sensitive securities' prices and benchmark Treasury yields. The equity and high-yield credit rallies will be put on hold until the earnings outlook stabilizes.

March 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Little Economic Impact From Subcontinent Conflict

The India-Pakistan conflict adds to the cumulative weight of geopolitical risk around the world.

March 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane

Aggregation and diversification of the IFRS 17 Risk Adjustment

IFRS 17 introduces the concept of a risk adjustment for non-financial risk. The IFRS 17 risk adjustment is an influential factor in how profit from insurance contracts is reported and emerges over time.

March 2019 WebPage Cassandra Hannibal

Weekly Market Outlook: Moody's Yield Averages Enter Their 100th Year

Two milestones will be arrived at in 2019. First, but not necessarily the foremost, Moody's corporate bond yield averages will record their 100th anniversary in 2019.

February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

ASEAN Outlook: Slower Momentum

We examine the prospects for major Southeast Asian economies, followed by an analysis of the economic ties to China and the specific risks they imply as China's pace of growth slows. We also cover monetary policy and its links to interest rates and equity markets, concluding with a review of political risks and an overall summary.

February 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Katrina Ell

Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Might Yet Be Challenged by a Worsened Business Outlook

High-yield bonds have led the credit market in total return thus far in 2019. After soaring from 6.32% at the end of September to 8.06% by year-end 2018, a composite speculative-grade bond yield has dropped to February 20's 6.79%.

February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Weekly Market Outlook: Default Outlook Again Defies Unmatched Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt rose to a record high 46.0% of GDP as of the span-ended September 2018. Nonfinancial corporate debt's 6.4% year-over-year increase for the 12-months-ended September 2018 outran nominal GDP's comparably measured rise of 5.0%.

February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Canada Housing Market Outlook: Slower, Steadier

The Canadian housing market is going through a period of decompression

South America Under Hypothetical Stress Scenarios

Applying the Fed's latest CCAR parameters, the region's recessions would be deeper than in the U.S.

February 2019 Pdf Juan Pablo Fuentes

Latin American Currency Highlights: Determining the Risk of a Large Currency Depreciation for 15 Countries

Latin American countries have a shaky history when it comes to stable foreign exchange. Several countries are facing economic and political upheaval, which may significantly impact the value of their currencies. Using the Moody's Analytics Currency Depreciation Indicator, we evaluate the coming year for 15 Latin American countries.

February 2019 Pdf Moody's Analytics

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

February 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi

Weekly Market Outlook: Equity Analysts' Confidence Contrasts With Economists' Skepticism

Notwithstanding January's bigger-than-expected addition to payrolls, the futures market recently assigned a mere 3% probability to a hiking of fed funds at any point in 2019.

February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Steven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez

Moody's Analytics Wins the Inaugural RiskTech100® IFRS 9 Award

International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS) 9 introduced a new accounting standard for financial instruments when it came into effect in January 2018. Taking first place for helping customers solve challenges around IFRS 9 is Moody's Analytics, winner of the inaugural RiskTech100 ® IFRS 9 award.

February 2019 WebPage

Moody's Analytics Wins the Balance Sheet Risk Management Category Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

In a post-Basel market, succeeding with balance sheet risk management is crucial for avoiding holding excessive capital returns and missing out on revenue-generating opportunities. The vendors servicing this market are on a mission to help firms centralize

February 2019 WebPage

Moody's Analytics Wins the Strategy Category Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

Winning a game of chess requires strategy and tactics, seeing where the game will go next and making deft, skilful moves accordingly. The winners in the RiskTech100 ® awards are vendors thinking like grand masters, succeeding with decision-making and looking into the future to unlock opportunities.

February 2019 WebPage

Weekly Market Outlook: Fed's Pause May Refresh a Tiring Economic Recovery

As high ranking Federal Reserve officials reiterated many times earlier, monetary policy is not on a preset course.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Weekly Market Outlook: Rising Default Rate May Be Difficult to Cap

Because of its acute sensitivity to the business-cycle and corporate earnings, the high-yield credit market will have more to worry about this year.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Weekly Market Outlook: Baa-Grade Credits Dominate U.S. Investment-Grade Rating Revisions

In 2018's final quarter, the 22 downgrades of U.S. investment-grade companies included nine that were at least partly ascribed to mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and three that were linked to equity buybacks. Only half, or 11, of fourth-quarter 2018's U.S. investment-grade downgrades were primarily driven by worsened operating or market fundamentals.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Moody's Analytics Wins the Model Validation Award in the 2019 Chartis RiskTech100®

In the past decade, changing capital adequacy requirements have resulted in an increasing spotlight on models for measuring credit exposures. Firms with proven models will build trust with regulators and can optimize capital in a more efficient way, making model validation essential for protecting the bottom line.

January 2019 WebPage
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