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    Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

    The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

    Our experts will answer key questions, including:

    • How severe are the Fed’s scenarios?

    • Are the scenarios internally consistent?

    • What are possible narratives driving the scenarios?

    • How do this year’s scenarios compare with last year’s?

    • What is the probability of the Fed scenarios?

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    Weekly Market Outlook: Existing-Home Sales Pick Up

    Existing-home sales rebounded in January, climbing 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million, slightly above consensus expectations for 3.97 million sales.

    February 2024 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Mark Zandi, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Matt Colyar, Alfredo Coutiño, Heron Lim
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    Weekly Market Outlook: No Surprise in September CPI

    September's consumer price index, as Moody's Analytics expected, showed a 0.4% monthly increase that held the annual inflation rate at 3.7%.

    October 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Harry Murphy Cruise, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Mark Zandi, Matt Colyar, Justin Begley
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Retail Sales Still Chasing Inflation

    U.S. retail sales continue to grow at a modest pace that is barely keeping up with inflation.

    July 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Mark Zandi, Stefan Angrick, Matt Colyar, Katrina Ell, Scott Hoyt, Steven Shields, Bernard Yaros
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Minutes Reinforce Softened Stance

    The Federal Open Market Committee softened its tone in May's post-meeting statement, a sentiment reinforced within the FOMC meeting minutes.

    May 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Mark ZandiKatrina Ell, Heron Lim, Steven Shields
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    Debt Limit Scenario Update

    The Treasury debt limit drama is fast approaching its finale. Congress and the Biden administration have no more than a month before the Treasury runs out of enough cash to pay all of the government's bills on time. Here, we update our analysis of two alternative scenarios that bookend the economic impact if lawmakers do not act in time and there is a breach of the limit.

    May 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Bernard Yaros
    Article

    The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up

    The political drama over the Treasury debt limit is suddenly heating up.

    April 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi, Bernard Yaros
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Banks Tap the Liquidity Spigot

    Surging interest rates coupled with an increased share of fixed-rate securities over the past year have made many banks vulnerable to evaporating deposits and duration risk.

    April 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Mark Zandi, Steven Shields, Katrina Ell, Kristopher Cramer, Stefan Angrick
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    What if the Banking Crisis Is Not Over?

    The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank precipitated a sudden loss of confidence in the banking system, prompting bank runs, and forcing the U.S. government to provide extraordinary support to the system.

    April 2023 Pdf Mark ZandiCristian deRitis, Dr. Martin A. Wurm, Bernard Yaros
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    Fiscal State of the Union

    Fiscal policy since the COVID-19 pandemic hit three years ago has been critical in supporting the U.S. economy's quick and full revival.

    March 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Shaken, Not Rattled

    Recent U.S. bank failures are disconcerting to watch, but they are not symptomatic of a serious broader problem in the financial system.

    March 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi, Dante DeAntonio, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Jain Illiana, Steven Shields, Bernard Yaros
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