Global Macroeconomic Outlook

The Global Economic View

Moody's Analytics presents research on trends that will shape the future landscape of the global economy. We investigate linkages between trade flows, migration, financial markets, commodity prices and foreign investment using our Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio.

Key Themes: The Economics of Asia, Trade Policy, Political Risks, Climate Change, Consumer Credit and Productivity

Economic Research & Scenario Analyses

Down the Rabbit Hole: Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

A centerpiece of presidential candidate Trump’s economic agenda was to take a hard line on our trading partners, particularly those with which the U.S. runs a trade deficit. China and Mexico were the object of his strongest recriminations, and he argued that large tariffs should be slapped on their exports to the U.S. Trump also labeled the Trans-Pacific Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement as among as the worst trade deals ever.

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Assessing a Severe Downturn in the Chinese Economy

A hard landing in China remains a looming threat over the global economy, and especially to the rest of Asia. Chinese authorities have successfully avoided such a scenario, at least so far. But the coast is not clear, as the Chinese economy has deep-seated fundamental problems that remain unaddressed. And adding to the concern is President Trump’s renewed talk of tariffs and other restrictions on U.S. trade with China.

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The Venezuela Crisis and Consequences for South America

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has solidified his grip on power following recent presidential elections, his victory all but ruling out prospects for a much-needed course correction in economic policy. This paper assesses the economic consequences for Venezuela and the rest of South America if Maduro serves out his new presidential term, and if he is cast from office.

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Contributors

Mark Zandi

Chief Economist

Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research.Dr. Zandi’s broad research interests encompass macroeconomics, financial markets and public policy.

Steve Cochrane

Chief APAC Economist

Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, leads the Asia analysis and forecasting activities of the research team and the expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models.

Marisa DiNatale

Global Head of Forecasting

Marisa DiNatale is the Global Head of Forecasting at Moody's Analytics, specializing in international modeling and forecasting, as well as U.S. regional economics and labor economics.

Ryan Sweet

Head of Monetary Policy Research

Ryan Sweet is the Head of Monetary Policy Research. He specializes in the U.S. economy and is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg.

Research Based on Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model

Delivered through Scenario Studio, Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model emphasizes stability, forecast accuracy and consistency of forecasts across concepts. Variables are forecasted using a simultaneous system of structural economic equations that allow for a variety of cross-country interactions through demand, price and financial market linkages. The historical data series forecast in the model are sourced directly from national statistical offices wherever possible to ensure that the forecasts reflect the most accurate and timely information available. Extensive diagnostic processes ensure that our forecasts are stable from month to month and consistent with the current business cycle outlook of each nation. Learn More.

64 countries included in the model with an additional 25 countries for IFRS 9* • Horizon: 30 years • Periodicity: Quarterly • Updates: Monthly

Produces baseline forecasts plus more than eight alternative scenarios, including a US Consensus Scenario and a Constant Severity Scenario.

Key Variables: Standard national income accounts as well as trade, gov., households, business investments, financial markets, demographics, prices and more.

*Coverage as of April 2018