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    Global Economic Outlook

    After a soft end to 2020 and a difficult start in 2021, the global economic recovery is projected to gain momentum in the coming year supported by the coronavirus vaccine rollout.

    After a soft end to 2020 and a difficult start in 2021, the global economic recovery is projected to gain momentum in the coming year supported by the coronavirus vaccine rollout. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region outperformed the other regions in 2020, though recent coronavirus outbreaks in a number of cities in Asia will drag on the pace of recovery in the opening months of the year.

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    Weekly Market Outlook: Record-High Systemic Leverage Limits Upside for Benchmark Interest Rates

    The secular decline by Treasury bond yields since 1982 has been accompanied by a secular climb in the ratio of private and public nonfinancial-sector debt to GDP.

    April 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Michael Ferlez, Katrina EllMark Zandi
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Will Excessive Stimulus Lead to Excessive Leverage?

    High yield bond issuance and newly rated loans from high-yield issuers have soared thus far in 2021.

    April 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Steven Shields, Mark Zandi
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Replay of the Inflationary 1970s Is Unlikely

    Monetary and fiscal stimuli seem to be surfacing here, there, and everywhere.

    April 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Michael Ferlez, Mark Zandi
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    Overcoming the Nation's Daunting Housing Supply Shortage

    Policymakers must tackle a host of challenges outside the traditional reach of housing policy—in trade, immigration, education, taxes and even municipal decision-making.

    March 2021 Pdf Mark Zandi
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Real GDP Growth's Biggest Improvement since 1950 May Power 2021's Profits Growth

    Each noteworthy deterioration of U.S. corporate credit quality since 1982 was accompanied by a significant contraction of yearlong core pretax profits, where the latter is supplied by the National Income Product Accounts of the U.S.

    March 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina EllMark Zandi, Steven Shields
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Stocks and High-Yield Performed Well Amid Prior Upturns by Treasury Bond Yields

    How did financial markets fare during the four previous distinct upturns by Treasury bond yields since December 2008's Great Recession bottom for the 10-year Treasury yield?

    March 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Steven Shields, Mark Zandi
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Quality Bonds Retreat as Leveraged Loans Shine

    Following the recessions of 1990-1991, 2001, and 2008-2009, the U.S. high-yield default rate peaked at June 1991's 12.3%, January 2002's 11.1%, and November 2009's 14.7%.

    February 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Michael Ferlez, Mark Zandi
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    Weekly Market Outlook: Too Much of a Good Thing?

    Markets now fret over the possibility that massive amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus may damage future financial conditions and economic performance.

    February 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiMark Zandi, Steven Shields
    Webinar-on-Demand

    Briefing on the U.S. CCAR & European Stress Test Scenarios

    Following last week’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) scenarios for 2021, join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the CCAR scenarios.

    February 2021 WebPage Mark ZandiCristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale, Anna Zabrodzka
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Fast Declining EDF Favors Thinner High-Yield Bond Spread

    Moody's Analytics' average expected default frequency metric of U.S./Canadian high-yield issuers, or high-yield EDF, recently sank to 2.36% for its lowest reading since the 2.35% of early October 2018.

    February 2021 Pdf John Lonski, Mark ZandiYukyung Choi, Michael Ferlez
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