Global Economic Outlook
After a soft end to 2020 and a difficult start in 2021, the global economic recovery is projected to gain momentum in the coming year supported by the coronavirus vaccine rollout.
After a soft end to 2020 and a difficult start in 2021, the global economic recovery is projected to gain momentum in the coming year supported by the coronavirus vaccine rollout. The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region outperformed the other regions in 2020, though recent coronavirus outbreaks in a number of cities in Asia will drag on the pace of recovery in the opening months of the year.
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Weekly Market Outlook: Existing-Home Sales Pick Up
Existing-home sales rebounded in January, climbing 3.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million, slightly above consensus expectations for 3.97 million sales.
Weekly Market Outlook: No News Is Good News
For consecutive meetings, the Federal Open Market Committee kept its primary policy rate unchanged.
Weekly Market Outlook: No Surprise in September CPI
September's consumer price index, as Moody's Analytics expected, showed a 0.4% monthly increase that held the annual inflation rate at 3.7%.
Weekly Market Outlook: Rates on the Rise
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been on a steady climb upward since May but has accelerated to start the fourth quarter, reaching its highest level since 2007.
Weekly Market Outlook: A Win for the Doves
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week emphasized the degree of uncertainty surrounding the outlook for monetary policy, while reasserting the central bank's commitment to not ease up on the brakes until its 2% inflation target is in sight.
Weekly Market Outlook: Labor Market Loosens—Unevenly
Job openings are now at their lowest since April 2021, when COVID-19 vaccines were becoming widely available.
Weekly Market Outlook: Retail Sales Still Chasing Inflation
U.S. retail sales continue to grow at a modest pace that is barely keeping up with inflation.
Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Presses Pause…or Skip?
The Federal Open Market Committee opted to pause in June, as anticipated.
Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Minutes Reinforce Softened Stance
The Federal Open Market Committee softened its tone in May's post-meeting statement, a sentiment reinforced within the FOMC meeting minutes.
Debt Limit Scenario Update
The Treasury debt limit drama is fast approaching its finale. Congress and the Biden administration have no more than a month before the Treasury runs out of enough cash to pay all of the government's bills on time. Here, we update our analysis of two alternative scenarios that bookend the economic impact if lawmakers do not act in time and there is a breach of the limit.
