Join Scott Hoyt and David Fieldhouse, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on Moody's Analytics forecasts of Equifax data.
Key topics include:
- Effect of the economy on credit conditions
- Shifting drivers of consumer spending
- Analysis of individual lending lines
The COVID-19 pandemic is dramatically impacting consumer credit portfolios.
We examine the impact of COVID-19 on consumer credit incorporating scenarios assumptions.
Presentation slides form our webinar examining, consumer credit conditions under scenarios for Credit Unions.
Moody’s Analytics analyzed a range of plausible outcomes of quantitative expected losses under CECL, incorporating COVID-19 impacts across commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), and retail loans.
We discuss the major implications of the COVID-19 recession on consumer credit performance over the next two years at the national, state, credit score band, and asset class level.
CECL was scheduled to go into effect at the beginning of 2020 until COVID-19 disrupted businesses. Moody's Analytics analyzed a range of plausible outcomes of quantitative expected losses under CECL, incorporating COVID-19 impacts across commercial and industrial (C&I), commercial real estate (CRE), and retail loans.
Real-time information on consumer spending is very limited, but there is growing evidence of some of the changes to consumer spending in response to COVID-19.
Recent CECL impact disclosures point directly to credit cards as the largest driver of the allowance. We can confirm those recent disclosures by looking at the consumer default volumes chart in Figure 1,which clearly point to the credit card segment as being one of the largest contributors of loss today.
Using multiple scenarios in CECL can temper some of the volatility in the economic forecasts – the part that results from our inability to forecast the economy with complete precision.
Join Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor of Moody’s Analytics, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions