Assessing the Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Virus Under Alternative Scenarios
The COVID-19 virus continues to spread and the economic damage is mounting.
The trajectory of COVID-19 is highly uncertain. Variables include how long it will take for the virus to play out, how many people will be infected, how many will die, and whether the virus will spread in a significant way outside of China. In this webinar, we assess the global macroeconomic impact of two scenarios, although others, each darker than the next, cannot be ruled out.
Related Articles
Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Minutes Reinforce Softened Stance
The Federal Open Market Committee softened its tone in May's post-meeting statement, a sentiment reinforced within the FOMC meeting minutes.
Weekly Market Outlook: Signs of Life in U.S. Homebuilding
U.S. homebuilding has found a floor following an almost year-long slide in building activity.
Debt Limit Scenario Update
The Treasury debt limit drama is fast approaching its finale. Congress and the Biden administration have no more than a month before the Treasury runs out of enough cash to pay all of the government's bills on time. Here, we update our analysis of two alternative scenarios that bookend the economic impact if lawmakers do not act in time and there is a breach of the limit.
Weekly Market Outlook: Have We Peaked?
The 0.25-percentage point rate hike at May's Federal Open Market Committee meeting brings the target range of the fed funds rate to 5% to 5.25%.
The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up
The political drama over the Treasury debt limit is suddenly heating up.
Weekly Market Outlook: Banks Tap the Liquidity Spigot
Surging interest rates coupled with an increased share of fixed-rate securities over the past year have made many banks vulnerable to evaporating deposits and duration risk.
Weekly Market Outlook: The Fed and Inflation
Minutes from March's Federal Open Market Committee meeting show Federal Reserve policymakers' confidence in the soundness of the financial system.
What if the Banking Crisis Is Not Over?
The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank precipitated a sudden loss of confidence in the banking system, prompting bank runs, and forcing the U.S. government to provide extraordinary support to the system.
Fiscal State of the Union
Fiscal policy since the COVID-19 pandemic hit three years ago has been critical in supporting the U.S. economy's quick and full revival.
Weekly Market Outlook: Shaken, Not Rattled
Recent U.S. bank failures are disconcerting to watch, but they are not symptomatic of a serious broader problem in the financial system.
