The COVID-19 virus continues to spread and the economic damage is mounting.
The trajectory of COVID-19 is highly uncertain. Variables include how long it will take for the virus to play out, how many people will be infected, how many will die, and whether the virus will spread in a significant way outside of China. In this webinar, we assess the global macroeconomic impact of two scenarios, although others, each darker than the next, cannot be ruled out.
The December U.S. consumer price index keeps the pressure on the Federal Reserve to remove some of its policy accommodation soon, but the good news is that inflation has likely peaked.
The minutes from the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee showed the central bank believed the time to begin removing policy accommodation was near and that policymakers favor interest rates over balance-sheet reduction as the primary tool.
This paper considers the consequences of a property market collapse in China for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.
Omicron is substantially more contagious than previous variants of the virus that causes COVID-19, and even if it is much less virulent, it is already doing significant economic damage.
The December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee concluded with the decision to double the pace of Fed tapering from $15 billion to $30 billion monthly.
U.S. financial market conditions are forecast to tighten next year, but we still expect solid corporate bond issuance and low defaults.
The Federal Reserve will announce that it is accelerating its tapering process at the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, unless the Omicron variant of COVID-19 becomes a clear threat to the outlook or there is a meaningful risk that the U.S. could temporarily breach the debt ceiling.
Stress in U.S. supply chains intensified in September, but some modest relief is coming.
The Delta variant of the virus hit us hard this fall, costing more lives and doing more economic damage, this time by igniting long-dormant inflation.