The COVID-19 virus continues to spread and the economic damage is mounting.
The trajectory of COVID-19 is highly uncertain. Variables include how long it will take for the virus to play out, how many people will be infected, how many will die, and whether the virus will spread in a significant way outside of China. In this webinar, we assess the global macroeconomic impact of two scenarios, although others, each darker than the next, cannot be ruled out.
There are the massive legislative efforts to increase spending on infrastructure and fiscal support for a range of social programs and climate change
The rapid aging of the U.S. population is putting a serious strain on the people, institutions and businesses that provide much-needed assistance to the elderly and disabled.
Despite gloomy pandemic news, there are some reasons for continued U.S. corporate earnings optimism.
There were media reports that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently warned House Speaker Nancy Pelosi that lawmakers have until some point in October to raise the debt ceiling before the Treasury exhausts its accounting gimmicks.
On August 26, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the national eviction moratorium imposed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, setting off a race to get millions of struggling renters the relief they need before being thrown from their homes.
The Federal Reserve is catching some heat about inflation, but the Fed's bet on it being transitory is correct, and price pressures will moderate later this year and in early 2022.
While some are fretting about market liquidity in the U.S. financial system, there's still a whole lot of cash floating around and no immediate cause for concern.
The July meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee didn't shed light on whether the Federal Reserve will announce its tapering plans in September or November.
The potential economic fallout from surging infections and hospitalizations due to the Delta variant of COVID-19 is a downside risk to our forecast for growth in the second half of this year, but the drag should be significantly less than prior waves.
Some Federal Reserve officials expect the economy to reach full employment by the end of next year, which would set the stage for the first increase in the target range for the fed funds rate soon thereafter. Our baseline forecast has the first rate hike occurring in the first quarter of 2023, consistent with market expectation.