In this webinar, we will use Moody’s Analytics EDF metrics to assess the impact COVID-19 has had so far on corporate credit risk.
We highlight company-, industry-, and country-level dimensions, including both risks and opportunities. In terms of investment ideas, we show that low default risk bonds, and the stocks of low default risk firms, have strongly outperformed during the international phase of the pandemic, consistent with a “flight to credit quality”. Finally, we examine the effects of a pandemic macroeconomic scenario to show which countries and industries could be most at risk going forward.
- Sam Malone PhD, Senior Director-Research
- Glenn Levine, Director-Research
- Yukyung Choi, Associate Director-Senior Research Analyst
- Ryan Donahue, Assistant Director-Product Strategist
Ongoing rallies by both the equity and corporate bond markets assume that any forthcoming rise by financial distress among businesses, households, as well as state and local governments, will be manageable.
As inferred from May-to-date's average 2.56-million initial state jobless claims per week, another outsized shrinkage of payrolls is likely following the loss of 881,000 jobs in March and the mind-boggling disappearance of 20.54-million jobs in April.
Across all rating categories, the recent $7.830 trillion of nonfinancial-corporate debt of North American nonfinancial companies rated by Moody's Investors Service was divided among $5.994 trillion of outstanding corporate bonds, $1.392 trillion of outstanding loans, and $444 billion of revolving credit facilities.
Expectations of an unfolding upswing by business activity from a miserable April have lifted financial markets.
In March 2020, the issuance of US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds soared to a record $268 billion, which far surpassed January 2017's erstwhile zenith of $193 billion.
En este seminario web, utilizaremos las métricas EDF de Moody’s Analytics para evaluar el impacto que COVID-19 ha tenido hasta ahora en el riesgo de crédito.
April will be home to the most pronounced monthly shrinkage of U.S. payrolls since January 1939 at least.
Thus far in April, earnings-sensitive financial markets have improved despite what is likely to be a wretched month for both U.S. business activity and the labor market.
As COVID-19 spreads globally, fear and uncertainty are rising, roiling financial markets and pushing the global economy towards recession. This report uses Moody’s Analytics CreditEdge™ public-firm EDF™ (Expected Default Frequency) metrics to assess the impact that the coronavirus has had so far on credit risk.
Flybe Group Plc, a UK airline with hubs in Manchester and Birmingham, ceased operations on March 5, 2020 as travel disruption caused by COVID-19 compounded the firm's financial troubles.