In this webinar, we will use Moody’s Analytics EDF metrics to assess the impact COVID-19 has had so far on corporate credit risk.
We highlight company-, industry-, and country-level dimensions, including both risks and opportunities. In terms of investment ideas, we show that low default risk bonds, and the stocks of low default risk firms, have strongly outperformed during the international phase of the pandemic, consistent with a “flight to credit quality”. Finally, we examine the effects of a pandemic macroeconomic scenario to show which countries and industries could be most at risk going forward.
- Sam Malone PhD, Senior Director-Research
- Glenn Levine, Director-Research
- Yukyung Choi, Associate Director-Senior Research Analyst
- Ryan Donahue, Assistant Director-Product Strategist
U.S. business activity may have lost some of its earlier unsustainable momentum, but the ongoing growth of expenditures weighs a renewed contraction of sales and profits.
Though unresolved issues stemming from COVID-19 warn of substantial tail risk, investors have become more tolerant of above-average risk according to the recent narrowing of corporate bond yield spreads.
The declining trend of initial state unemployment claims persists.
The Congressional fight over additional fiscal stimulus goes on. The Democrats propose an additional $2.2 trillion of deficit spending, while the Republicans have offered $1.6 trillion
Corporate bond issuance by U.S. companies continues to boom.
The default research analysts at Moody's Investors Service have lowered their baseline estimates for the U.S. high-yield default rate.
The U.S. is now in high-season politically.
This article undertakes a thorough exploration of the dynamic relationships linking credit risk and bond spreads. Credit metrics help forecast absolute spreads and relative bond returns.
In terms of US$-denominated supply, corporate bond issuance attained record highs for the month of August.
On August 27, the Federal Open Market Committee updated its long-term goals and monetary policy strategy.