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    COVID-19 Economic Forecast Scenarios - The Shape of the Coming Recovery

    In this webinar, Chief Economist Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team present an overview of our updated COVID-19 forecast scenarios for the global economy, including the key drivers for each probability weighted assumption.

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    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Minutes Reinforce Softened Stance

    The Federal Open Market Committee softened its tone in May's post-meeting statement, a sentiment reinforced within the FOMC meeting minutes.

    May 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Mark ZandiKatrina Ell, Heron Lim, Steven Shields
    Article

    Debt Limit Scenario Update

    The Treasury debt limit drama is fast approaching its finale. Congress and the Biden administration have no more than a month before the Treasury runs out of enough cash to pay all of the government's bills on time. Here, we update our analysis of two alternative scenarios that bookend the economic impact if lawmakers do not act in time and there is a breach of the limit.

    May 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Bernard Yaros
    Article

    The Debt Limit Drama Heats Up

    The political drama over the Treasury debt limit is suddenly heating up.

    April 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi, Bernard Yaros
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Banks Tap the Liquidity Spigot

    Surging interest rates coupled with an increased share of fixed-rate securities over the past year have made many banks vulnerable to evaporating deposits and duration risk.

    April 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Mark Zandi, Steven Shields, Katrina Ell, Kristopher Cramer, Stefan Angrick
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: The Fed and Inflation

    Minutes from March's Federal Open Market Committee meeting show Federal Reserve policymakers' confidence in the soundness of the financial system.

    April 2023 Pdf Dante DeAntonio, Cristian deRitis, Denise Cheok, Matt Colyar, Steven Shields, Bernard Yaros
    Article

    What if the Banking Crisis Is Not Over?

    The recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank precipitated a sudden loss of confidence in the banking system, prompting bank runs, and forcing the U.S. government to provide extraordinary support to the system.

    April 2023 Pdf Mark ZandiCristian deRitis, Dr. Martin A. Wurm, Bernard Yaros
    Article

    Fiscal State of the Union

    Fiscal policy since the COVID-19 pandemic hit three years ago has been critical in supporting the U.S. economy's quick and full revival.

    March 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Shaken, Not Rattled

    Recent U.S. bank failures are disconcerting to watch, but they are not symptomatic of a serious broader problem in the financial system.

    March 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi, Dante DeAntonio, Stefan Angrick, Olga Bychkova, Jain Illiana, Steven Shields, Bernard Yaros
    Article

    Financial System Shaken, Not Rattled

    Recent U.S. bank failures are disconcerting to watch, but they are not symptomatic of a serious broader problem in the financial system; policymakers' aggressive response should ensure the failures do not weaken the system or the fragile economy.

    March 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi
    Article

    Going Down the Debt Limit Rabbit Hole

    The U.S. Treasury is quickly approaching the X-date—the day it will not have enough cash to pay all of the federal government's bills on time.

    March 2023 Pdf Mark Zandi
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