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    Europe Economic Outlook

    The COVID-19 virus continues to spread and the economic damage is mounting.

    With the rapid deterioration in the global economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moody's Analytics team present an update to our economic outlook for Europe

    Click here for the presentation

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    Europe Economic Outlook

    With the rapid deterioration in the global economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moody's Analytics presents an update to our economic outlook for Europe.

    April 23, 2020 Pdf Petr Zemcik
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    COVID-19 Age-Related Fatality and Mortgage Defaults in the U.K.

    We use data on U.K. mortgages to establish a link between age and probability of default. The recent spike in the number of weekly deaths in Britain implies we could plausibly assume a 50% rise in mortality for those older than 55, under an extreme scenario. This assumption also implies an increase in the number of defaults by 33.1% for those older than 75, by 9.9% for those aged 56 to 75, and by 2.9% for all ages combined.

    April 2020 Pdf Petr Zemcik
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    COVID-19: Q&A

    COVID-19 has ignited an unprecedented global economic crisis, that has been extraordinarily difficult to gauge, generating a blizzard of wide-ranging questions

    April 2020 WebPage Mark ZandiCristian deRitisSteven CochraneRyan Sweet, Petr Zemcik, Alfredo Coutiño
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    COVID-19: Global Recession

    COVID-19 has created a global economic tsunami that is now hitting the United States and Europe with full force.

    March 2020 WebPage Mark ZandiRyan SweetCristian deRitisSteven Cochrane, Adam Kamins, Petr Zemcik
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    Europe Economic Outlook - Cloud of Uncertainty

    We consider the leading indicators of recession, the potential timing of the downturn, its severity and length.

    October 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Petr Zemcik

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default by 2020

    The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

    July 03, 2019 WebPage Petr Zemcik
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    Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default

    The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

    July 2019 WebPage Petr Zemcik

    Economic Forecasting and Scenario Generation Process

    We describe the framework of the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model and how its used in our forecasting process.

    February 15, 2019 Pdf Petr Zemcik

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the EBA Scenarios

    The European Banking Authority has released its scenarios for the 2018 EU-wide stress test. Join our experts as they analyze the EBA’s scenario assumptions, narratives driving them and compare them to other regulatory stress tests.

    February 14, 2018 WebPage Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Petr Zemcik
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    Assessing the 2016 PRA Stress-Test Scenarios

    In this webinar examine the supervisory scenarios published by the Prudential Regulation Authority to help you better understand and prepare for this year’s stress-testing exercise.

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