Listen as Moody’s Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax. Key topics include:
- Effect of the economy on credit conditions
- Shifting drivers of consumer spending
- Analysis of individual lending lines
October's PCE deflator showed that the Federal Reserve is on track to bring inflation to its 2% target in the near term.
The economy's recent performance has consistently exceeded the prior expectations of many who expected a recession by now, and the outsized growth reported for the third quarter—4.9% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate—only adds to that.
The Federal Open Market Committee, at its September meeting, decided to leave rates unchanged.
U.S. retail sales continue to grow at a modest pace that is barely keeping up with inflation.
U.S. growth has been trending lower and decelerated more than anticipated in the first quarter of 2023, to 1.1% at an annualized rate in Thursday's GDP report from the BEA.
March's Federal Open Market Committee meeting was as highly anticipated as any in recent memory.
U.S. inflation is moderating, but the consumer price index underscores that the disinflationary process will be a bumpy ride.
The stock of U.S. consumer credit rose in December but marked the smallest monthly gain since January 2021,surprising to the downside relative to our and consensus expectations.
Moody's Analytics baseline outlook calls for a recession-free 2023 in the U.S., though the pace of growth will slow demonstrably.
After starting 2022 at zero, the Federal Reserve's most aggressive tightening cycle since the early 1980s has lifted the target range for the fed funds rate to end the year at 4.25% to 4.5%.