President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

Expectations were strong that an agreement ending the war, or at least putting it on hold, was imminent. Odds remain high that Trump and Chinese President Xi will soon come to terms. But suddenly a number of other scenarios seem possible, even one in which the U.S., China and global economy suffer a recession.

In this webinar, we explore the impact of potential scenarios based on our Global Macroeconomic Model. 

Presentation slides

Speakers:

Steven Cochrane, Senior Director, Chief APAC Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis. Dr. Cochrane is based out of Moody’s Analytics Singapore office.

Katrina Ell, Assistant Director, Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Katrina Ell is an assistant director and economist in the Sydney office of Moody’s Analytics. Katrina manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for the research, analysis and forecasting of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Katrina is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University.

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