Featured Product

    Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

    President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

    Expectations were strong that an agreement ending the war, or at least putting it on hold, was imminent. Odds remain high that Trump and Chinese President Xi will soon come to terms. But suddenly a number of other scenarios seem possible, even one in which the U.S., China and global economy suffer a recession.

    In this webinar, we explore the impact of potential scenarios based on our Global Macroeconomic Model. 

    Presentation slides

    Speakers:

    Steven Cochrane, Senior Director, Chief APAC Economist, Moody’s Analytics
    Steven G. Cochrane, PhD, is Chief APAC Economist with Moody’s Analytics. He leads the Asia economic analysis and forecasting activities of the Moody’s Analytics research team, as well as the continual expansion of the company’s international, national and subnational forecast models. In addition, Steve directs consulting projects for clients to help them understand the effect of regional economic developments on their business under baseline forecasts and alternative scenarios. Steve’s expertise lies in providing clear insights into an area’s or region’s strengths, weaknesses and comparative advantages, relative to macro or global economic trends.
    Steve holds a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania and is a Penn Institute for Urban Research Scholar. He also holds master's degree from the University of Colorado at Denver and a bachelor's degree from the University of California at Davis. Dr. Cochrane is based out of Moody’s Analytics Singapore office.

    Katrina Ell, Assistant Director, Economist, Moody’s Analytics
    Katrina Ell is an assistant director and economist in the Sydney office of Moody’s Analytics. Katrina manages the Asia-Pacific edition of Economy.com and is responsible for the research, analysis and forecasting of economies throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Katrina is regularly quoted by international media such as CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times and Sky News. She previously worked as an analyst at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority. Katrina received her bachelor’s degree in economics (honours) from Macquarie University.

    Related Articles
    Article

    Tip of the Iceberg: The Global Ramifications of a China Debt Crisis

    A hard landing in China remains a looming threat to the global economy and especially to the rest of Asia. This paper considers the consequences of a China debt crisis for the Chinese and global economies, with a special focus on Southeast Asia and emerging markets.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven CochraneJesse Rogers
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Lowest Investment-Grade Industrial Company Bond Yields since 1956

    The latest rally by Treasury bonds drove Moody's long-term industrial company bond yields down to new 63-year lows. On August 14, the single-A industrial company bond yield closed at 3.30% and the Baa industrial yield ended at 4.08%.

    August 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
    Article

    Asia Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

    The global economy is navigating troubled waters. The unresolved and significant geopolitical risks plaguing the global economy are exacerbating the slowdown in demand.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven CochraneKatrina Ell
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Sluggish Business Revenues Pressure Corporate Credit Quality

    It was a tumultuous week. Volatility will lurk until trade issues are resolved. Perhaps the best markets can hope for on the trade front is a long-lived truce.

    August 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields
    Article

    The Ebb and Flow of Free Trade

    We demonstrate how the pattern of trade and the rules that have governed trade have changed dramatically over the past two years from a system that was set up shortly after World War II and that more or less thrived until the current trade war.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven Cochrane, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Living in the Tail Risk: US/China Trade War

    The US-China trade war has gone down a darker path. The trade war has escalated beyond expectations and the stakes are high for the global economy.

    August 2019 Pdf Steven CochraneKatrina Ell
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Successful Rate Cuts Are Short and Shallow; Failures Are Deep and Extended

    Since 1984, there have been seven distinct series of Fed rate cuts. Four of the seven rate cut episodes occurred amid a mature business cycle upturn and managed to stave off a recession. They happened in 1985, 1987, 1995, and 1998.

    August 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Faster Loan Growth Would Bode Poorly for Corporate Credit Quality

    Forecasts of a prolonged depreciation of the dollar exchange rate may be overlooking to the increased importance of U.S. spending as a driver of global economic growth.

    July 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina EllRyan Sweet, Brendan Meighan, Steven Shields
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Likelihood of a 1.88% Fed Funds Rate by End of July Soars

    The release of second quarter corporate earnings is moving into full gear and investors are not entirely happy with the results.

    July 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina EllSteven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Michael Ferlez, Ryan Sweet
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Market Implied Ratings Differ on the Likely Direction of Baa3 Ratings

    Baa3-grade issuers constitute the bottom rung of the investment-grade ratings ladder. Once a Baa3 rating is subject to a “fallen angel” downgrade to speculative-grade, investors who are mandated to hold only investment-grade obligations must sell the now high-yield debt.

    July 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields
    RESULTS 1 - 10 OF 131