President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

Expectations were strong that an agreement ending the war, or at least putting it on hold, was imminent. Odds remain high that Trump and Chinese President Xi will soon come to terms. But suddenly a number of other scenarios seem possible, even one in which the U.S., China and global economy suffer a recession.

In this webinar, we explore the impact of potential scenarios based on our Global Macroeconomic Model. 

Presentation slides


Mark Zandi, Managing Director, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of the company, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. Dr. Zandi earned his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania.

Cris deRitis, Senior Director, Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics
Cristian deRitis is a senior director at Moody’s Analytics, where he conducts economic analysis and develops econometric models for a wide variety of clients. His regular analysis and commentary on consumer credit, policy and the broader economy appear on the firm’s web site and in other publications. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Cristian worked for Fannie Mae and taught at Johns Hopkins University. He received his PhD in economics from Johns Hopkins University and is named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling techniques.

Ryan Sweet, Director, Real Time Economist, Moody's Analytics
Ryan Sweet is director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics. He is also editor-in-chief of, to which he regularly contributes, and a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team in West Chester PA. His areas of specialization include U.S. macro, monetary policy, and forecasting high-frequency economic indicators. He is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg.He received his master's degree in economics from the University of Delaware and his bachelor's degree in economics from Washington College.

Related Articles

Weekly Market Outlook: Global Collapse by Bond Yields Stems From Worldwide Slowdown

Both the corporate bond and equity markets responded positively to the latest drop by Treasury bond yields and the likelihood of at least two reductions of the federal funds rate during the remainder of 2019.

June 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark ZandiRyan Sweet, Steven Shields

Weekly Market Outlook: The Fed Cured 1998's Yield Curve Inversion

The implied probability of a fed funds rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee's July 31 meeting recently soared to 72% mostly in response to Jerome Powell's apparent willingness to heed the recessionary warning of a possibly persistently inverted yield curve.

June 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Defining Economic Scenarios With Constant Severities

Alternative economic scenarios are invaluable for quantifying and managing forecast risk. In this article, we define these constant severity scenarios and the models used to estimate their probabilities.


Weekly Market Outlook: Extended Yield Curve Inversion Would Presage Wide Spreads and Many Defaults

Since May 3, or just prior to the latest episode of trade-related stress, the market value of U.S. common stock had plunged by 5.7% as of May 29's close for a paper loss of $1.735 trillion.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Faraz Syed, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

Weekly Market Outlook: Business Debt's Mild Rise Differs Drastically from 2002-2007's Mortgage Surge

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently addressed the issue of business borrowing. In a May 20 speech, Mr. Powell suggested that, by itself, the new record high ratio of nonfinancial-corporate business debt to GDP is much less of a risk to systemic financial liquidity than was home mortgage debt's record high 100% of disposable personal income from 2007.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

May 20, 2019 WebPage Mark ZandiRyan SweetDr. Cristian deRitis

Weekly Market Outlook: Earnings Slump Would Unmask Dangers of High Leverage

According to the Federal Reserve's “Financial Stability Report” of May 2019, not only has the outstanding debt of nonfinancial businesses outpaced nominal GDP during the past 10 years (or since 2008), but the growth of debt has been skewed toward riskier firms.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark ZandiRyan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

CECL 20/20: A Clear View of the New Credit Loss Requirements

Starting in 2020, the Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL) accounting standard will require financial institutions to reserve for estimated lifetime losses on loans and leases as soon as they are originated. This presentation will provide analytical insight and practical recommendations to help lenders strategize and effectively prepare for the new rule.


Trade War Update: Will Trump Push Too Far?

New escalation of the U.S.-China trade war makes a number of scenarios possible, including one in which the global economy suffers recession later this year.

May 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi

Weekly Market Outlook: Credit May Again Outshine Equities at Divining Markets' Near-Term Path

During a week of heightened equity market volatility, the corporate credit market was relatively calm. As of May 8's close, the credit market had yet to sense much collateral damage from an intensification of the trade conflict between China and the U.S.

May 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina EllSteven Cochrane, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields
RESULTS 1 - 10 OF 145