Featured Product

    Trade War Update - Will Trump Push Too Far?

    President Trump has escalated the trade war with China, and nearly everyone has been wrong-footed by the move.

    Expectations were strong that an agreement ending the war, or at least putting it on hold, was imminent. Odds remain high that Trump and Chinese President Xi will soon come to terms. But suddenly a number of other scenarios seem possible, even one in which the U.S., China and global economy suffer a recession.

    In this webinar, we explore the impact of potential scenarios based on our Global Macroeconomic Model. 

    Presentation slides


    Mark Zandi, Managing Director, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
    Mark M. Zandi is chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, where he directs economic research. Moody’s Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody’s Corp., is a leading provider of economic research, data and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi is a cofounder of the company Economy.com, which Moody’s purchased in 2005. Dr. Zandi earned his B.S. from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania.

    Cris deRitis, Senior Director, Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics
    Cristian deRitis is a senior director at Moody’s Analytics, where he conducts economic analysis and develops econometric models for a wide variety of clients. His regular analysis and commentary on consumer credit, policy and the broader economy appear on the firm’s Economy.com web site and in other publications. Before joining Moody’s Analytics, Cristian worked for Fannie Mae and taught at Johns Hopkins University. He received his PhD in economics from Johns Hopkins University and is named on two U.S. patents for credit modeling techniques.

    Ryan Sweet, Director, Real Time Economist, Moody's Analytics
    Ryan Sweet is director of real-time economics at Moody's Analytics. He is also editor-in-chief of Economy.com, to which he regularly contributes, and a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team in West Chester PA. His areas of specialization include U.S. macro, monetary policy, and forecasting high-frequency economic indicators. He is among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the U.S. economy, according to MarketWatch and Bloomberg.He received his master's degree in economics from the University of Delaware and his bachelor's degree in economics from Washington College.

    Related Articles

    Weekly Market Outlook: Richly Valued Equities Offset Record High Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

    Following Jerome Powell's testimony of December 11, Moody's long-term Baa industrial company bond yield fell to 3.98%, which was its lowest close since the 3.95% of August 28, 2019.

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Andrew Pak, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Weekly Market Outlook: Return of Christmas Past Does Not Impend

    More than 20% of the European Union's population is at least 65 years of age. Partly because of an unprecedented aging of the EU's slowly growing population, the average annual rate of economic growth for the EU has slowed from the 2.7% of 2004-2007 to the projected 1.2% of 2019-2020.

    December 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

    Moody's Analytics Webinar: 2020 U.S. Economic & Consumer Credit Outlook

    Cris deRitis, Chief Deputy Economist with Moody's Analytics discusses the current and anticipated trends in U.S. economic and household credit conditions.

    December 2019 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitis

    A Global Recession: Key Indicators and Implications

    How should we prepare for the next recession?

    November 2019 WebPage Dr. Cristian deRitisMichael Schwartz

    Weekly Market Outlook: Next Plunge by Profits to Drive Leverage Up to 2009 High

    U.S. business activity has not been exceeding its reach, and that will help extend the long-lived bull market and record-long economic recovery.

    November 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung ChoiKatrina EllRyan Sweet, Steven Shields

    Mission Possible: Producing Defendable CECL Results With or Without Models

    Learn to differentiate C&I, CRE, retail, and securities. Choose approaches at the right level of flexibility and sophistication. Apply model-free solutions based on historical internal or industry data.

    November 2019 Pdf Eric Bao, Dr. Cristian deRitisDr. Yashan Wang

    Boom, Bust, Flat: Quantifying Recession and Expansion Risks with Scenarios

    Having achieved the longest expansion in history, what's next for the US economy? ‍We will identify current downside – and upside – risks that could pull the economy into recession or propel it forward. We identify short, medium, and long-term risk factors and introduce a methodology for incorporating these risks into a globally consistent framework. ‍While no model can forecast the future with certainty, scenarios with mathematically derived probability weights can manage these risks and lead to better, faster decisions. ‍

    November 2019 Pdf Dr. Cristian deRitis

    The Risk Management Impact of Climate Change & Environmental, Social, & Governance Risk (ESG)

    Climate change and its increasing economic toll on businesses in different sectors of the economy is discussed, including how to operationalize the response to climate change risk, given stakeholder need. Also discussed is the linkage between environmental risk and other ESG risk factors to security returns and measures of credit risk.

    November 2019 Pdf Michael Denton, Dr. Cristian deRitis

    Weekly Market Outlook: Corporate Bond Issuance Reflects Business Activity's Heightened Sensitivity to Rates

    For January-October 2019, the corporate bond issuance by U.S. based businesses grew by 12.4% year over year to $871.0 billion for investment-grade obligations and increased by 15.2% annually to $186.5 billion for high-yield offerings.

    November 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez, Andrew Pak

    The Next Recession

    The U.S. and global economies are struggling under the weight of the U.S.-China trade war and a range of other geopolitical threats. Can the global economy avoid an economic recession?

    November 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
    RESULTS 1 - 10 OF 188