Moody's Analytics Webinar: Preparing for a turn in the Chinese credit cycle
China’s corporate credit market has grown rapidly in recent years as both a cause and effect of its growing economy.
Yet the global economy is starting to show growing pains amid various signs of late-cycle behavior – a global slowdown would adversely affect China’s export-driven economy. We see emerging pockets of credit risk within China and a downturn in the economy would exacerbate these risks. Knowing exactly where these risks lie is crucial for effectively managing a credit portfolio, both now and, going forward, if the Chinese economy were to slow.
In this webinar our Moody’s Analytics experts provide insights on China’s corporate credit market and how to effectively manage credit risk as the cycle starts to turn. The discussion points include:
- Recent credit risk trends within China. Which industries are most at risk?
- A discussion of credit metrics and tools to help risk managers effectively monitor their portfolio.
- Case studies of recent Chinese defaulters. Can these tools be used as an early warning signal of default risk?
- Using stressed expected loss analysis for internal risk identification, as well as for regulatory compliance such as IFRS 9.
Median Chinese corporate Expected Default Frequencies under five economic scenarios (%)
Source: Moody's Analytics
Related Articles
|
Webinar-on-Demand
Lifetime Expected Credit Loss ModelingIn this webinar, David Fieldhouse, Director in Consumer Credit Analytics and Glenn Levine, Associate Director within the Capital Markets Research Group provide an overview of ECL quantification tools Moody’s Analytics offers to support CECL implementation across all major asset classes. |
|
Presentation
Lifetime Expected Credit Loss Modeling Presentation SlidesIn this presentation, learn more about ECL quantification tools to support CECL implementation across all major asset classes, including dual-risk rating models (PD/LGD), credit cycle adjustment and scenario conditioning models, segment-level loss rate models and discounted cash flow (DCF) and non-DCF methodologies. |
|
Webinar-on-Demand
No Surprises: Gaining Strategic Insight Through Stress Test SimulationSince the global financial crisis, bank stress testing has become an essential part of regulators’ toolkits for monitoring and maintaining financial stability. Anticipating the results of a formal stress test through simulation can enhance a bank's internal risk management as well as provide strategic business insight. |
|
Webinar-on-Demand
Brexit Fallout: Using Scenario Analysis and a Systemic Risk Approach to Assess Corporate Credit RiskThe June 23rd referendum, in which UK voters chose to leave the European Union, has fanned financial volatility and may precipitate a recession in the UK economy. The updated economic and financial outlook has implications for corporate credit risk. |
|
Webinar-on-Demand
Preparing for Defaults in China's Corporate Credit MarketIn this webinar Moody’s Analytics discuss the Marco-economic and credit market conditions likely to affect the future risk of default for Chinese companies; way to measure and manage the default risk of Chinese firms, and strategies for early detection of default risk. |
|
Article
Angang Steel's Credit Risk Rises As Local Rating Agencies Remain Sanguine | Moody's AnalyticsAngang Steel is one of China's largest steel producers, but in recent times slower economic growth, coupled with elevated steel production, have put downward pressure on prices and revenues. |
|
Article
Probability-Weighted Outcomes Under IFRS 9: A Macroeconomic ApproachIn this article, we discuss development of a framework that addresses the forward-looking and probability-weighted aspects of IFRS 9 impairment calculation using macroeconomic forecasts. In it, we address questions around the practical use of alternative scenarios and their probabilities. |
|
Whitepaper
A Simulated Stress Test of the Corporate Loan Portfolios of Australia's Largest BanksThis whitepaper discusses the findings of our simulation exercise to the corporate loan portfolios of Australia's five largest banks. |
|
Webinar-on-Demand
Simulating a Stress Test of the Corporate Loan Portfolios of Australia's Largest BanksIn this webinar, David Hamilton presents the results of a simulated stress test of the corporate loan portfolios of Australia’s five largest banks (by asset size) conducted by Moody’s Analytics. |
|
Webinar-on-Demand
Measuring Systemic Risk in the SE Asia Financial SystemIn this webinar, Moody’s Analytics combines the techniques of network analysis with the richness of Moody’s CreditEdge™ platform to compute systemic risk measures spanning the last 20 years for five major southeast Asian economies. |
