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Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody’s Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy’s performance.

The U.S. economy is doing well and expansion will become the second longest in the postwar era later this year. While we expect another solid year, several factors could cause the economy to out- or underperform our expectations.

Click here for the presentation

Related Insights
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Default Outlook Again Defies Unmatched Ratio of Corporate Debt to GDP

In terms of a moving yearlong average, U.S. nonfinancial corporate debt rose to a record high 46.0% of GDP as of the span-ended September 2018. Nonfinancial corporate debt's 6.4% year-over-year increase for the 12-months-ended September 2018 outran nominal GDP's comparably measured rise of 5.0%.

February 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve have released its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Listen as Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.

February 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve will release its scenarios for the 2019 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and Cristian deRitis as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of detailed economic variables.

February 11, 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis
Article

Trump Trade War: An Uneasy Truce

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the fallout if current negotiations break down and trade tensions between the two economic giants reignite.

February 2019 Pdf Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Fed's Pause May Refresh a Tiring Economic Recovery

As high ranking Federal Reserve officials reiterated many times earlier, monetary policy is not on a preset course.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Veasna Kong, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Rising Default Rate May Be Difficult to Cap

Because of its acute sensitivity to the business-cycle and corporate earnings, the high-yield credit market will have more to worry about this year.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Baa-Grade Credits Dominate U.S. Investment-Grade Rating Revisions

In 2018's final quarter, the 22 downgrades of U.S. investment-grade companies included nine that were at least partly ascribed to mergers, acquisitions and divestitures and three that were linked to equity buybacks. Only half, or 11, of fourth-quarter 2018's U.S. investment-grade downgrades were primarily driven by worsened operating or market fundamentals.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Mark Zandi, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez

2019 U.S. Macro Outlook: From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle

In this webinar, Chief Economist Mark Zandi, will share his outlook for the economy, including why 2019 should be another reasonably good year, the threats to this expectation and why a downturn early in the next decade is more likely.

January 15, 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Moody's Analytics: 2019 U.S. Macro Outlook - From Virtuous to Vicious Cycle

The next recession is coming into view but probably will not arrive in the coming year as many seem to fear.

January 2019 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Upper-Tier Ba Rating Comprises Nearly Half of Outstanding High-Yield Bonds

The outstanding high-yield corporate bonds of U.S.-domiciled issuers fell from a year earlier for an eighth consecutive quarter in 2018's final three months. Fourth-quarter 2018's 4.6% year-over-year drop lowered the outstandings of U.S. corporate high-yield bonds to $1.221 trillion, which was 9.1% under fourth-quarter 2016's current zenith of $1.344 trillion.

January 2019 Pdf John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Ryan Sweet, Michael Ferlez
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