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Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody’s Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy’s performance.

The U.S. economy is doing well and expansion will become the second longest in the postwar era later this year. While we expect another solid year, several factors could cause the economy to out- or underperform our expectations.

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Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Borrowing Restraint Elsewhere Makes Room for Federal Debt Surge

Partly as a means of offsetting the loss of business activity to deleveraging by households, businesses, as well as state and local governments, the federal government's share of the U.S.' broadest estimate of public and private nonfinancial-sector debt has soared from year-end 2007's 18% to the 34% of 2017's third quarter. The latter share is the highest since 1960's third quarter.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Declining Default Rate Offsets Drag of Higher Interest Rates

Corporate bond yield spreads have been relatively steady throughout recent equity market tumult. Expectations of a declining high-yield default rate into early 2019 have anchored corporate yield spreads.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Corporate Bonds Beg to Differ With Their Equity Brethren

Thus far, the corporate credit market has been relatively steady amid equity market turmoil. Corporate credit's comparative calm stems from expectations of continued profit growth that underpins a still likely slide by the high-yield default rate. The record shows that 90% of the year-to-year declines by the default rate were joined by year-to-year growth for the market value of U.S. common stock.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
Webinar-on-Demand

Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Yields and Lower Equities Might Yet Swell Credit Risk

It has been a volatile week for financial markets. After shrugging off an earlier ascent by the 10-year Treasury yield from year-end 2017's 2.41% to January 26's 2.66% and advancing by 7.1%, the market value of U.S. common stock has since sunk by 1.6% in reaction to a climb by the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.77%. The deeper post-January 26 drop of 3.7% by the interest-sensitive PHLX index of housing-sector share prices underscores the importance of higher Treasury bond yields to the latest retreat by equities. Earlier, or from year-end 2017 through January 26, the index of housing sector share prices was up by 4.9%, which trailed the accompanying advance by the overall equity market.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 01, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ed Friedman, Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: High-Yield Bond Issuance Thrives Despite Tax Law Changes

Some predicted that the loss of the full deductibility of business interest expense would weigh heavily on the issuance of dollar-denominated high-yield bonds. However, corporate bond issuance has exceeded expectations thus far in 2018.

January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Faraz Syed, Katrina Ell
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Surging Equities and Thinner Spreads Favor Higher Treasury Yields

Earnings-sensitive securities have thrived thus far in 2018. Not only was the market value of U.S. common stock recently up by 4.5% since year-end 2017, but a composite high-yield bond spread narrowed by 23 basis points to 336 bp. The latter brings attention to how the accompanying composite speculative-grade bond yield fell from year-end 2017's 5.82% to a recent 5.72% despite the 5-year Treasury yield's increase from 2.21% to 2.39%, respectively.

January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Alaistair Chan, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand

Housing Takes a Hit

In this webinar, we consider the prospects for the housing market in 2018 in light of the recent changes to the tax code.

January 2018 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Mark Zandi
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Profits Growth and Benign Default Outlook May Offset Higher Interest Rates

Corporate bonds and equities got out of the gate quickly in 2018. Though benchmark interest rates are likely to climb higher, the combination of corporate earnings growth and a benign outlook for corporate defaults should be enough to prevent a deep and extended slide by share prices. Except for late 1987's stock market crash, the historical record shows that since 1982, interest-rate inspired declines by the broad equity indices have been relatively brief and shallow.

January 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Suzanne Schatz, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell
Webinar-on-Demand

Weighing the Wealth Effect

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

December 2017 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Brian Poi, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Consequences of Republican Tax Legislation

In this webinar, we assess the implications of the imminent change, with a focus on who benefits most and who is likely to be hurt. The discussion entails a look at both the national effects and the regional implications.

December 2017 WebPage Chris Lafakis, Adam Kamins, Dan White, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Harvey

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ed Friedman, Ryan Sweet, Chris Lafakis
Presentation

Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times

In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.

May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi
Presentation

Potential Bumps Ahead for US Financial Markets

How US policymakers respond to pressing fiscal challenges could have major implications for financial market conditions. These challenges, coupled with the debate surrounding the Fed's balance sheet and geopolitical issues, are of concern for those with exposure to market risk.

Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency

Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Post-US Presidential Election Outlook

Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president’s term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.

November 2016 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Assessing the impact of the EU-Wide Stress Test Results 2016

In this webinar, Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou, Director, Stress Testing Specialist, discuss the results of the latest stress tests.

August 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou
Webinar-on-Demand

Brexit - Economic & Financial Aftermath

The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country’s place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.

June 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Learnings from CCAR 2015 and Beyond

In this webinar, Moody's Analytics experts revisit the CCAR 2015 scenarios, review industry results and discuss how to identify and quantify Systemic Risk.

April 2015 WebPage Mark Zandi, Anna KraynDr. Samuel W. Malone
Presentation

Reverse Stress Testing: Challenges and Benefits

Reverse stress testing is becoming recognised throughout the world for its benefits. This presentation explains what reverse stress testing is and what it can achieve, along with the challenges it presents. Here we show you why reverse stress testing can lead to a deeper understanding of an organisation's susceptibility to risk and why it is a valuable tool for any risk management strategy.

November 2010 Pdf Dr. Christian Thun, Dr. Juan M. Licari, Mark Zandi