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December 2017

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

The "wealth effect" - the impact of changes in household wealth on consumer spending - has been instrumental to the economy's gains, with the American consumer powering the U.S. and global economies.

Forces such as surging stock and housing values are driving this, but stability will remain critical for continued growth.

Related Insights

CreditForecast.com: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Join Moody’s Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax and forecasts from Moody's Analytics

August 15, 2018 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor

Trade War Scenarios

Fill out this form to request more information on our Trade War Scenarios. Moody's Analytics scenarios are the foundation of risk management, compliance and strategic planning needs

July 17, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi

Webinar - Forecasting Innovations: Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio.

June 28, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Richard Cross, Mark Hopkins
Webinar-on-Demand

Global Macroeconomic Model and Scenario Studio

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team discuss recent changes to our Global Macroeconomic Model, and provide an overview of Scenario Studio, our new platform for custom scenario development. Learn more: www.moodysanalytics.com/scenariostudio

June 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Mark Hopkins

Down the Rabbit Hole: NAFTA Scenarios

A centerpiece of presidential candidate Trump's economic agenda was to take a hard line on our trading partners, particularly those with which the U.S. runs a trade deficit. China and Mexico were the object of his strongest recriminations, and he argued that large tariffs should be slapped on their exports to the U.S. Trump also labeled the Trans-Pacific Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement as among as the worst trade deals ever.

April 17, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Cristian deRitis, Marisa DiNatale

Moody's Analytics Webinar: President Trump's Tariffs – Assessing the Impact of Various Trade Scenarios

In this webinar, Mark Zandi and our team of economists use the Moody’s Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model to assess the impact of various trade scenarios.

April 11, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi

Weighing the Wealth Effect

In this paper, Mark Zandi and the Moody's Analytics team discuss the impact of the wealth effect on economic expansion and quantify econometric estimates based on data from Visa and Equifax.

March 28, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi

Weighing the Wealth Effect

The importance of the wealth effect has significant implications for the economic expansion. In this paper, we quantify the wealth effect based on unique retail sales data and data on household stock and financial asset holdings. We examine differences in the wealth effect across retail spending categories, the lags in the wealth effect, and possible asymmetries in the wealth effect due to rising versus falling asset prices.

March 21, 2018 Pdf Mark Zandi

CreditForecast.com: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook

Join Moody’s Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax

February 28, 2018 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Webinar-on-Demand

CreditForecast.com: U.S. Consumer Credit Outlook Webinar

Join Moody’s Analytics Scott Hoyt and Deniz Tudor, as they discuss the current and anticipated trends in household credit conditions based on data from Equifax

February 2018 WebPage Scott Hoyt, Dr. Deniz Tudor
Webinar-on-Demand

Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the CCAR Scenarios

The Federal Reserve has released its scenarios for the 2018 CCAR stress test. Join Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team as they discuss the narratives behind the Fed’s scenarios under forecasts of more than 1,500 detailed economic variables.

February 01, 2018 WebPage Mark Zandi, Ed Friedman, Dr. Sohini Chowdhury
Webinar-on-Demand

2018 U.S. Economic Outlook

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, and Ryan Sweet, Director of Real Time Economics, share Moody’s Analytics forecast and discuss the factors that could impact the economy’s performance.

January 2018 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Housing Takes a Hit

In this webinar, we consider the prospects for the housing market in 2018 in light of the recent changes to the tax code.

January 2018 WebPage Andres Carbacho-Burgos, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Consequences of Republican Tax Legislation

In this webinar, we assess the implications of the imminent change, with a focus on who benefits most and who is likely to be hurt. The discussion entails a look at both the national effects and the regional implications.

December 2017 WebPage Chris Lafakis, Adam Kamins, Dan White, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Producing Objective Income & Balance Sheet Forecasts

In this webinar, we demonstrate how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark of a bank’s performance under baseline and stressed scenarios. We demonstrate results though case study of regional banks, peer groups, and larger CCAR-sized institutions.

November 2017 WebPage Brian Poi
Presentation

Producing Objective Income & Balance Sheet Forecasts Presentation Slides

In this presentation, we demonstrate how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark of a bank's performance under baseline and stressed scenarios. We demonstrate results though case study of regional banks, peer groups, and larger CCAR-sized institutions.

November 2017 Pdf Brian Poi
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Irma

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Dan White, Kwame Donaldson
Webinar-on-Demand

The Economic Impact of Hurricane Harvey

In this webinar replay, Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact on the national and regional economy, including the effect on GDP, corporate profits, gas prices, as well as property damage estimates for infrastructure, real estate and vehicles.

September 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi, Adam Kamins, Ed Friedman, Ryan Sweet, Chris Lafakis
Webinar-on-Demand

Forecasting Income & Balance Sheet Projections for Compliance

Regulators are placing increased emphasis on the rigor by which banks model their income and balance sheet projections.

July 2017 WebPage Brian Poi
Presentation

Macro Outlook: Good (But Risky) Times

In this presentation, Mark Zandi presents his outlook for the global economy.

May 2017 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Economic Impact of a Trump Presidency

Mark Zandi and the Moody’s Analytics team examine the economic impact stemming from potential policy changes under President-Elect Donald Trump. They detail the assumptions behind three new Donald Trump specific forecast scenarios and demonstrate plausible outcomes on economic performance.

December 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Post-US Presidential Election Outlook

Mark Zandi and Ryan Sweet discuss the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, what must be done early in the new president’s term to help the economy, and the implication of the election outcome on the fiscal outlook and growth.

November 2016 WebPage Ryan Sweet, Mark Zandi
Webinar-on-Demand

Assessing the impact of the EU-Wide Stress Test Results 2016

In this webinar, Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou, Director, Stress Testing Specialist, discuss the results of the latest stress tests.

August 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi, Dr. Dimitrios Papanastasiou
Article

Improved Deposit Modeling: Using Moody's Analytics Forecasts of Bank Financial

In this article we demonstrate how to combine our forecasts of bank financial statements with internal data to produce forecasts that better reflect the macroeconomic environment posited under the various Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review scenarios.

August 2016 Pdf Dr. Tony HughesBrian Poi
Webinar-on-Demand

Brexit - Economic & Financial Aftermath

The U.K. stunned the world by voting to leave the EU. After months of bruising campaigning, British voters have chosen to reshape their country’s place in the world. Listen to Dr. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, as he discusses the economic & financial aftermath of the #Brexit.

June 2016 WebPage Mark Zandi
Presentation

Forecasting Income Statements & Balance Sheets Using Industry Data

In this presentation, Dr. Brian Poi, Director, Economic Research, demonstrates how forecasts based on industry data can be used to generate an objective benchmark for internally generated forecasts.

October 2015 Pdf Brian Poi
Article

Multicollinearity and Stress Testing

Multicollinearity, the phenomenon in which the regressors of a model are correlated with each other, apparently causes a lot of confusion among practitioners and users of stress testing models. This article seeks to dispel this confusion.

May 2015 WebPage Dr. Tony HughesBrian Poi
Webinar-on-Demand

Learnings from CCAR 2015 and Beyond

In this webinar, Moody's Analytics experts revisit the CCAR 2015 scenarios, review industry results and discuss how to identify and quantify Systemic Risk.

April 2015 WebPage Mark Zandi, Anna KraynDr. Samuel W. Malone
Presentation

Reverse Stress Testing: Challenges and Benefits

Reverse stress testing is becoming recognised throughout the world for its benefits. This presentation explains what reverse stress testing is and what it can achieve, along with the challenges it presents. Here we show you why reverse stress testing can lead to a deeper understanding of an organisation's susceptibility to risk and why it is a valuable tool for any risk management strategy.

November 2010 Pdf Dr. Christian Thun, Dr. Juan M. Licari, Mark Zandi

Previewing This Year's Stress Tests Using the Bank Call Report Forecasts

To capture a bank’s real capacity to withstand an adverse economic scenario, the best approach is to start with forecasts produced only for accuracy and then apply a conservative overlay as regulation requires. Such forecasts capture mitigating forces such as flight to safety.

Article

Stress Testing and Strategic Planning Using Peer Analysis

Banks face the difficult task of building hundreds of forecasting models that disentangle macroeconomic effects from bank-specific decisions. We propose an approach based on consistently reported industry data that simplifies the modeler’s task and at the same time increases forecast accuracy.

Anatomy of a NAFTA Deal

This paper assesses the economic impact of a new NAFTA and the potential economic fallout if the negotiations and NAFTA fail.

Pdf Mark Zandi

Trump Trade War

Using the Moody's Analytics model of the global economy, we consider the economic fallout of an escalating Trump trade war.

Pdf Mark Zandi