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    How Will the Increase in Off-Lease Volume Affect Used Car Residuals?

    February 2017

    Increases in auto lease volumes are nothing new, yet the industry is rife with fear that used car prices are about to collapse. In this talk, we will explore the dynamics behind the trends and the speculation.

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    Model Validation Need Not Be a Blood Sport

    The traditional build-and-validate modeling approach is expensive and taxing. A more positive and productive validation experience entails competing models developed by independent teams.

    September 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
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    Will CECL Ultimately Be Worth All the Fuss?

    The industry is currently a hive of CECL-related activity. Many banks are busily testing their systems or finalizing their preparations for the go-live date, which is either in January 2020 or somewhat later, depending on the organization. Some are still making plans for implementation, and the rest are worried that they should be.

    August 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
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    The Real Value of Stress Testing: Has CCAR Been Validated?

    The theory that banks are now safer because of CCAR, though, has not yet been tested.

    July 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
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    CECL, IFRS 9 and the Demand for Forecast Stability

    Loan-loss provisioning models must take a variety of economic and client factors into account, but, with the right approach, banks can develop sensible loss forecasts that are more accurate and less susceptible to volatility.

    June 2019 WebPage Dr. Tony Hughes
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    Climate Change Stress Testing

    As evidence of climate change builds and threats materialize,data will be invaluable in creating a framework for making future credit decisions.

    June 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
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    Human Versus Machine: The Pros and Cons of AI in Credit

    In recent years, attention has increasingly turned to the promise of artificial intelligence (AI) to further increase credit availability and to improve the profitability of banks and other lenders. But what is AI?

    May 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Finding a CECL Solution for Smaller Banks

    Good-quality CECL projections can be developed using high-quality data that is available free of charge.

    April 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Commercial Lending Imbalances and the Looming Recession

    Stress testing, up until now, has basically been a theoretical exercise. Growth has been slow but steady and the imbalances that can trigger recessions have largely been absent. However, with many now calling for a 2020 U.S. recession – and with Brexit looming – we may soon find out whether stress tests actually work when applied in the real world.

    March 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Information Overload: The Risk Documentation Challenge

    For banks, one of the more onerous aspects of regulatory supervision is documentation. Regulators demand detailed descriptions of the models being used and banks have responded by the bucket-load.

    February 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    CECL, IFRS 9 and the Demand for Forecast Stability

    Suppose I have two competing forecasting methods, each designed for CECL or IRFS 9 loss provisioning. Both would pass muster with regulators and auditors. How do I decide which is better?

    January 2019 Pdf Dr. Tony Hughes
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