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April 2016

The EBA has released its 2016 EU-wide Stress Test. This webinar dissects the scenarios, considers possible narratives driving them and their probability of occurring.

Related Insights
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Internal Funds Outrun Corporate Debt by Widest Margin Since 2011

Lately, financial markets have grudgingly withstood the broad imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum. Not even the resignation of the highly respected Gary Cohn was capable of triggering a jarring sell-off of equities. Markets took some comfort from President Trump's indication that countries might be granted exemptions from the tariffs if they resolve issues that led to the imposition of tariffs.

March 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell

Moody's Analytics Webinar: Briefing on the EBA Scenarios

The European Banking Authority has released its scenarios for the 2018 EU-wide stress test. Join our experts as they analyze the EBA’s scenario assumptions, narratives driving them and compare them to other regulatory stress tests.

February 14, 2018 WebPage Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Petr Zemcik
Article

Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Yields and Lower Equities Might Yet Swell Credit Risk

It has been a volatile week for financial markets. After shrugging off an earlier ascent by the 10-year Treasury yield from year-end 2017's 2.41% to January 26's 2.66% and advancing by 7.1%, the market value of U.S. common stock has since sunk by 1.6% in reaction to a climb by the 10-year Treasury yield to 2.77%. The deeper post-January 26 drop of 3.7% by the interest-sensitive PHLX index of housing-sector share prices underscores the importance of higher Treasury bond yields to the latest retreat by equities. Earlier, or from year-end 2017 through January 26, the index of housing sector share prices was up by 4.9%, which trailed the accompanying advance by the overall equity market.

February 2018 Pdf John Lonski, Njundu Sanneh, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Anna Zabrodzka, Katrina Ell
Article

Dynamic Model-Building: A Proposed Variable Selection Algorithm

In this article, we propose an innovative algorithm that is well suited to building dynamic models for credit and market risk metrics, consistent with regulatory requirements around stress testing, forecasting, and IFRS 9.

Presentation

IFRS 9 Scenario Implementation and ECL Calculation for Retail Portfolios Presentation Slides

In this presentation, Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi and Alaistair Chan discuss methods for incorporating forward-looking macroeconomic information to meet IFRS 9 impairment calculation requirements. Our economists will address the probability-weighted aspects of IFRS 9 using Moody's Analytics economic scenarios. The team will also discuss our modeling approach for calculating expected credit losses for retail lending portfolios.

October 2017 Pdf Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Alaistair Chan
Webinar-on-Demand

IFRS 9 Scenario Implementation and ECL Calculation for Retail Portfolios

Join Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi and Alaistair Chan as they discuss methods for incorporating forward-looking macroeconomic information to meet IFRS 9 impairment calculation requirements. Our economists will address the probability-weighted aspects of IFRS 9 using Moody’s Analytics economic scenarios.

October 2017 WebPage Dr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Alaistair Chan
Webinar-on-Demand

Assessing the 2016 PRA Stress-Test Scenarios

In this webinar examine the supervisory scenarios published by the Prudential Regulation Authority to help you better understand and prepare for this year’s stress-testing exercise.

May 2016 WebPage Petr Zemcik
Whitepaper

Modelling and Stressing the Interest Rates Swap Curve

We present a two-step modelling and stress testing framework for the term structure of interest rates swaps that generates sensible forecasts and stressed scenarios out of sample. Our methodology is able to replicate two important features of the data: the dynamics of the spread across maturities and the alignment of the key swap rates tenor points to their corresponding government yields. Modern models of the term structure of interest rates typically fail to reproduce these and are not designed for stress testing purposes. We present results for the euro, the U.S. dollar, and British pound swap curves.

September 2013 Pdf Dr. Juan M. LicariDr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Dr. José Suárez-Lledó
Article

Modeling and Stressing the Interest Rates Swap Curve

This article presents a two-step modeling and stress testing framework for the term structure of interest rates swaps that generates sensible forecasts and stressed scenarios out of sample. The results are shown for the euro, the US dollar, and British pound swap curves.

WebPage Dr. Juan M. LicariDr. Olga Loiseau-Aslanidi, Dr. José Suárez-Lledó
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