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    EBA Scenarios for the 2016 EU-wide Stress Test

    April 2016

    The EBA has released its 2016 EU-wide Stress Test. This webinar dissects the scenarios, considers possible narratives driving them and their probability of occurring.

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    With the rapid deterioration in the global economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moody's Analytics presents an update to our economic outlook for Europe.

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    The COVID-19 virus continues to spread and the economic damage is mounting.

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    COVID-19 Age-Related Fatality and Mortgage Defaults in the U.K.

    We use data on U.K. mortgages to establish a link between age and probability of default. The recent spike in the number of weekly deaths in Britain implies we could plausibly assume a 50% rise in mortality for those older than 55, under an extreme scenario. This assumption also implies an increase in the number of defaults by 33.1% for those older than 75, by 9.9% for those aged 56 to 75, and by 2.9% for all ages combined.

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    COVID-19: Q&A

    COVID-19 has ignited an unprecedented global economic crisis, that has been extraordinarily difficult to gauge, generating a blizzard of wide-ranging questions

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    COVID-19: Global Recession

    COVID-19 has created a global economic tsunami that is now hitting the United States and Europe with full force.

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    Europe Economic Outlook - Cloud of Uncertainty

    We consider the leading indicators of recession, the potential timing of the downturn, its severity and length.

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    Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default

    The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

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    Moody's Analytics Webinar: Effectively Preparing for the EBA's New Definition of Default by 2020

    The EBA has set a new standard for the definition of default which will require banks to make significant adjustments to their measures, models and processes by 31 December 2020.

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    Economic Forecasting and Scenario Generation Process

    We describe the framework of the Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model and how its used in our forecasting process.

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    Weekly Market Outlook: Internal Funds Outrun Corporate Debt by Widest Margin Since 2011

    Lately, financial markets have grudgingly withstood the broad imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum. Not even the resignation of the highly respected Gary Cohn was capable of triggering a jarring sell-off of equities. Markets took some comfort from President Trump's indication that countries might be granted exemptions from the tariffs if they resolve issues that led to the imposition of tariffs.

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