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    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2021Q2

    U.S. wholesale used-vehicle demand has begun to cool off after rising rapidly in the first few months of the year.

    July 21, 2021 Moody's Analytics

    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2020Q3

    U.S. wholesale used-vehicle retention value growth has been muted over the last two months after an unprecedented rise.

    October 27, 2020 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2019Q3

    Auto retention values were not immune to the slowdown in the U.S. economy in the third quarter. Wholesale used-vehicle value retention dropped 1.7% in September on a year-over year basis. This at a time when U.S. economic growth slowed from 3% a year earlier to about 2%

    November 2019 Michael Brisson
    Article

    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2017Q4

    Wholesale used-vehicle auction sales waned in November, while the average transaction price fell by 0.53% from a year ago to $10,556. The surge in replacement demand after Hurricanes Harvey and Irma appears to be fading, resulting in prices and sales normalizing from the strong performance in October and September.

    December 2017 Michael Vogan, Roland Lindmayer

    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2021Q1

    U.S. used-vehicle prices declined in the final quarter of 2020 after an unprecedented runup that began in May.

    March 29, 2021 Moody's Analytics

    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2020Q4

    Demand for used vehicles slowed as job creation provided less support.

    January 26, 2021 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    U.S. Used-Vehicle Market: Revved Up in 2021

    Demand for used vehicles was red-hot in the first quarter. After ticking down modestly in the final few months of last year, U.S. wholesale used-vehicle prices shot up 11% from December to March.

    April 2021 Michael Brisson
    Article

    U.S. Wholesale Used-Vehicle Price Report: 2020Q2

    Despite the quarterly average declining by 4.6%, the movement of prices within the quarter set multiple records.

    May 2020 Authors
    Article

    A Perfect Storm Blows Australian Used-Vehicle Prices Sky-High

    Wholesale used-vehicle prices rose to all-time highs across Australia in June. Following a record-breaking monthly increase in May, June doubled down on the historic gains.

    July 2020 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Australian Used-Vehicle Prices Rise in First Quarter on Supply Concerns

    According to the Datium Insights-Moody's Analytics Price Index, wholesale used-vehicle prices are 37% above the pre-pandemic high set in February 2020.

    April 2021 Moody's Analytics, Michael Brisson

    Datium– Moody's Used Vehicle Price Index

    The purpose of this article is to introduce some new data and analytics into Australian economic commentary that pertain to the health of the auto industry and the value of the nation's vehicle fleet.

    December 19, 2019 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Recent Australian Used-Vehicle Prices Gains Are Unsustainable

    As prices continue to climb, there is a developing question of sustainability.

    June 2020 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Benefits & Applications: AutoCycle - Vehicle Residual Value Forecasting Solution

    With auto leasing close to record highs, the need for accurate and transparent used-car price forecasts is paramount. Concerns about the effect of off-lease volume on prices have recently peaked, and those exposed to risks associated with vehicle valuations are seeking new forms of intelligence. With these forces in mind, Moody's Analytics AutoCycle™ has been developed to address these evolving market dynamics.

    May 2016 Dr. Tony Hughes, Dr. Samuel W. Malone, Michael Vogan, Michael Brisson
    Whitepaper

    Vehicle Equity and Long-Term Car Loans

    In this article, we consider the increasing prevalence of long term loans and use the AutoCycle™ wholesale price forecasts to uncover equity held by the borrower under different economic scenarios.

    April 2015 Dr. Tony Hughes
    Whitepaper

    Cox Automotive – Moody's Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index

    This paper describes the underlying data sources, methodology, and some reasoning as to why each decision was made.

    November 2020 Moody's Analytics
    Presentation

    Forecasts and Stress Scenarios of Used-Car Prices

    The market for new cars is growing strongly and lessors need forecasts and associated stress scenarios of future vehicle value to set the initial terms, to monitor the performance of their book and to stress-test cash flows. This presentation offers insight and tools to help lessors in this pursuit.

    May 2015 Dr. Tony Hughes, Zhou Liu, Pedro Castro
    Press Release

    Australian Used Car Prices Bounce Back Despite COVID-19: New Datium Insights-Moody's Analytics Index

    A new index launched by Moody's Analytics in collaboration with Datium Insights reveals that Australian wholesale used-vehicle prices increased by 10.6% from April to May of this year.

    June 17, 2020 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Worst of U.S. Inflation May Be Behind Us

    The December U.S. consumer price index keeps the pressure on the Federal Reserve to remove some of its policy accommodation soon, but the good news is that inflation has likely peaked.

    January 2022 Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields, Katrina Ell
    Article

    AutoCycle Methodology: Australian Model

    This white paper lays out AutoCycle Australia, a forecasting methodology able to generate used-vehicle prices under a wide array of macroeconomic conditions.

    August 2020 Michael Brisson
    Whitepaper

    AutoCycle™: Residual Risk Management and Lease Pricing at the VIN Level

    We demonstrate the core capabilities of our vehicle residual forecasting model to capture aging and usage effects and illustrate the material implications for car valuation of different macroeconomic scenarios such as recessions and oil price spikes.

    May 2016 Dr. Tony Hughes
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Record August for Bond Issuance May Aid Credit Quality

    In terms of US$-denominated supply, corporate bond issuance attained record highs for the month of August.

    September 2020 John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Steven Shields, Mark Zandi
    Press Release

    Moody's Analytics technology to support NextGear Capital structured finance issuance

    The Moody's Analytics ABS System securitization issuance platform has been selected by NextGear Capital, one of the foremost providers of lending products for vehicle dealers and auctions in the US and Canada.

    April 03, 2017 Moody's Analytics
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Fed Intervention Sparks Back-to-Back Record Highs for IG Issuance

    In March 2020, the issuance of US$-denominated investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds soared to a record $268 billion, which far surpassed January 2017's erstwhile zenith of $193 billion.

    April 2020 John Lonski, Yukyung Choi, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Adam Kamins, Ryan Sweet, Steven Shields
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Credit Cycle Enjoys a Respite

    For the first time since 1987-1988, the US credit cycle has stabilized following a surge by credit rating downgrades relative to upgrades, a jump by the high-yield default rate, and a pronounced widening by corporate bond yield spreads. After six years at 49% of US high-yield credit rating revisions from July 2009 through June 2015, downgrades soared to 71% in the year-ended June 2016. Then downgrades eased to 58% for the year-ended March 2017 and sank to 48% during Q1-2017.

    April 2017 David Munves, John Lonski, Ben Garber, Yukyung Choi, Irina Baron, Xian Li, Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Higher Interest Rates Suppress Corporate Borrowing

    An abatement of tariff-related fears reduced the uncertainty surrounding a positive outlook for US corporate earnings. In response, the market value of US common stock quickly approached its record high of August 29, 2018. Moreover, high-yield bonds rallied from already richly-priced levels. In turn, a recent composite high-yield bond spread was thinner than 340 basis points (bp) for the first time since the middle of April 2018.

    September 2018 John Lonski, Franklin Kim, Yukyung Choi, Ryan Sweet, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Reka Sulyok, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Rate Spike Would Tame the Bulls

    The US equity market may continue to set new record highs as the VIX index lengthens its stay under an extraordinarily low 10 points. Ample liquidity implies that a recent high-yield bond spread of 359 bp might soon dip under 350 bp.

    October 2017 Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka , John Lonski, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Liquidity Buoys Corporate Credit

    Long-term fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain well under their averages of 2002-2007's recovery. If only because of an unprecedented and irreversible aging of the US population and workforce, fears of a disruptive lift-off and extended high-altitude orbit by Treasury bond yields are probably exaggerated.

    July 2017 Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka , John Lonski, Katrina Ell, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Alaistair Chan
    Article

    Weekly Market Outlook: Special Events Supply an Upside Surprise

    Corporate credit is seeing one of the more unusual business cycle upturns since the Second World War. Not only have corporate bond yield spreads narrowed and default probabilities declined despite steeper leverage, but special events have gone from dragging ratings lower, on balance, to, once again, being of a net benefit to US corporate credit ratings.

    October 2017 Franklin Kim, Njundu Sanneh, Yukyung Choi, Tomas Holinka , John Lonski, Barbara Teixeira Araujo, Katrina Ell, Faraz Syed
    Whitepaper

    May 2012 U.S. Middle Market Risk Report

    This semiannual report examines credit risk in the otherwise opaque US private firm credit market. We report trends in four different types of risk measures: actual defaults, internal bank ratings, financial statement-based information, and model-based risk estimates. The statistics in this report are derived from Moody's Analytics Credit Research Database® (CRD).

    May 2012 Edward Atkinson
    Whitepaper

    October 2012 U.S. Middle Market Risk Report

    This semiannual report examines credit risk in the otherwise opaque US private firm credit market. We report trends in four different types of risk measures: actual defaults, internal bank ratings, financial statement-based information, and model-based risk estimates. The statistics in this report are derived from Moody's Analytics Credit Research Database® (CRD).

    October 2012 Bryce Bewley, Dhivya Madhavan, Irina Korablev, Stafford Perkins, Douglas Dwyer
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