BIS Issues Paper on Measuring Contagion Risk in International Banking
BIS published a working paper on measuring contagion risk in international banking. In the paper, the authors propose a distress measure for national banking systems to incorporate not only banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, the authors develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of the credit risk or funding risk of a banking system.
The rapid growth of the global financial system over the past couple of decades has increased the importance of properly measuring contagion risk. This is true not only from a financial stability point of view, but also from a macroeconomic perspective, as financial crises tend to have significant and persistent negative effects on economic activity. Additionally, the increased interconnectedness and complexity of the global banking system have made that task extremely challenging. A novel methodology for measuring contagion risk in international banking has been proposed in the paper.
The empirical analysis suggests that the measure generated using the novel methodology predicts CDS spreads better than an alternative measure based on (unadjusted) past values of CDS spreads. This is the case, especially during crisis times, when the non-linear network effects tend to be more important. The methodology can be rather useful for policymakers, as it gives an early warning measure of a national banking system’s distress levels, which incorporates information on its foreign exposures. The measure can also be extended to any multi-layer financial network, such as an interbank network. Furthermore, the methodology that has been proposed could potentially be utilized in a bottom-up stress test. More precisely, the proposed methodology could generate estimates of the expected losses of an institution, while incorporating all relevant information on (direct and indirect) exposures, linkages, and contagion probabilities.
Related Link: Working Paper
Keywords: International, Banking, Securities, Contagion Risk, CDS, Credit Risk, Stress Testing, Research, Swaps, BIS
Featured Experts

Metin Epözdemir
Metin Epözdemir helps European and African banks with design and implementation of credit risk, stress testing, capital management, and credit loss accounting solutions.

Emil Lopez
Credit risk modeling advisor; IFRS 9 researcher; data quality and risk reporting manager

James Partridge
Credit analytics expert helping clients understand, develop, and implement credit models for origination, monitoring, and regulatory reporting.
Previous Article
MAS Guidelines on Risk Mitigation Requirements for OTC DerivativesRelated Articles
OSFI Discusses Benchmark Rate Transition, Sets Out Work Priorities
The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) published the strategic plan for 2022-2025 and the departmental plan for 2022-23.
EBA Proposes Standards to Support Secondary NPL Markets
The European Banking Authority (EBA) is consulting, until August 31, 2022, on the draft implementing technical standards specifying requirements for the information that sellers of non-performing loans (NPLs) shall provide to prospective buyers.
EU Confirms Agreement on Rules on Cybersecurity and Banking Resolution
The European Council and the Parliament reached an agreement on the revised Directive on security of network and information systems (NIS2 Directive).
EBA Issues Standards for Crowdfunding Service Providers Under ECSPR
The European Banking Authority (EBA) published the final draft regulatory technical standards specifying information that crowdfunding service providers shall provide to investors on the calculation of credit scores and prices of crowdfunding offers.
EU Confirms Agreement on Rules on Cybersecurity and Banking Resolution
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) published a paper that examines the systemic risk posed by increasing use of cloud services, along with the potential policy options to mitigate this risk.
EC Consults on PSD2 and Open Finance; EU Reaches Agreement on DORA
The European Commission (EC) published a public consultation on the review of revised payment services directive (PSD2) and open finance.
EC Mandates ESAs to Propose Amendments to SFDR Technical Standards
The European Commission (EC) has issued two letters mandating the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs) to jointly propose amendments to the regulatory technical standards under Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation or SFDR.
EBA Examines Supervisory Practices, Issues Deposits Reporting Template
The European Banking Authority (EBA) published its annual report on convergence of supervisory practices for 2021. Additionally, following a request from the European Commission (EC),
SNB Updates NSFR Forms and FINMA Consults on Operational Risk Circular
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) published Version 1.2 of the reporting forms (NSFR_G and NSFR_P) on the net stable funding ratio (NSFR) of banks, along with the associated documentation.
US Agency Publications Address Basel, Reporting, and CECL Developments
The Farm Credit Administration published, in the Federal Register, the final rule on implementation of the Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) methodology for allowances