Featured Product

    BIS Issues Paper on Measuring Contagion Risk in International Banking

    July 15, 2019

    BIS published a working paper on measuring contagion risk in international banking. In the paper, the authors propose a distress measure for national banking systems to incorporate not only banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, the authors develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of the credit risk or funding risk of a banking system.

    The rapid growth of the global financial system over the past couple of decades has increased the importance of properly measuring contagion risk. This is true not only from a financial stability point of view, but also from a macroeconomic perspective, as financial crises tend to have significant and persistent negative effects on economic activity. Additionally, the increased interconnectedness and complexity of the global banking system have made that task extremely challenging. A novel methodology for measuring contagion risk in international banking has been proposed in the paper.

    The empirical analysis suggests that the measure generated using the novel methodology predicts CDS spreads better than an alternative measure based on (unadjusted) past values of CDS spreads. This is the case, especially during crisis times, when the non-linear network effects tend to be more important. The methodology can be rather useful for policymakers, as it gives an early warning measure of a national banking system’s distress levels, which incorporates information on its foreign exposures. The measure can also be extended to any multi-layer financial network, such as an interbank network. Furthermore, the methodology that has been proposed could potentially be utilized in a bottom-up stress test. More precisely, the proposed methodology could generate estimates of the expected losses of an institution, while incorporating all relevant information on (direct and indirect) exposures, linkages, and contagion probabilities.

     

    Related Link: Working Paper

    Keywords: International, Banking, Securities, Contagion Risk, CDS, Credit Risk, Stress Testing, Research, Swaps, BIS

    Featured Experts
    Related Articles
    News

    ISSB Sustainability Standards Expected to Become Global Baseline

    The finalization of the two sustainability disclosure standards—IFRS S1 and IFRS S2—is expected to be a significant step forward in the harmonization of sustainability disclosures worldwide.

    September 18, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    IOSCO, BIS, and FSB to Intensify Focus on Decentralized Finance

    Decentralized finance (DeFi) is expected to increase in prominence, finding traction in use cases such as lending, trading, and investing, without the intermediation of traditional financial institutions.

    September 18, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    BCBS Assesses NSFR and Large Exposures Rules in US

    The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) published reports that assessed the overall implementation of the net stable funding ratio (NSFR) and the large exposures rules in the U.S.

    September 14, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    Global Agencies Focus on ESG Data, Climate Litigation and Nature Risks

    At the global level, supervisory efforts are increasingly focused on addressing climate risks via better quality data and innovative use of technologies such as generative artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain.

    September 14, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    ISSB Standards Shine Spotlight on Comparability of ESG Disclosures

    The finalization of the IFRS sustainability disclosure standards in late June 2023 has brought to the forefront the themes of the harmonization of sustainability disclosures

    August 22, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EBA Issues Several Regulatory and Reporting Updates for Banks

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) recently issued several regulatory publications impacting the banking sector.

    August 10, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    BCBS Proposes to Revise Core Principles for Banking Supervision

    The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) launched a consultation on revisions to the core principles for effective banking supervision, with the comment period ending on October 06, 2023.

    August 04, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    US Proposes Final Basel Rules, Transition Period to Start in July 2025

    The U.S. banking agencies (FDIC, FED, and OCC) recently proposed rules implementing the final Basel III reforms, also known as the Basel III Endgame.

    August 04, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    FSB Report Outlines Next Steps for Climate Risk Roadmap

    The Financial Stability Board (FSB) recently published the second annual progress report on the July 2021 roadmap to address climate-related financial risks.

    August 04, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EBA Plans on Ad-hoc ESG Data Collection and Climate Scenario Exercise

    The recognition of climate change as a systemic risk to the global economy has further intensified regulatory and supervisory focus on monitoring of the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) risks.

    July 31, 2023 WebPage Regulatory News
    RESULTS 1 - 10 OF 8931