Featured Product

    ECB Paper Introduces Structural Quantile VAR Model for Stress Testing

    November 18, 2019

    ECB published a working paper that presents a model for forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression (VAR). The authors have developed a quantile VAR model and used it to forecast and stress test the interaction between real and financial variables in the euro area.

    The paper develops the general quantile structural vector autoregressive framework. It provides the links with standard OLS structural VAR, derives the asymptotic distributions, and shows how to do forecasting with quantile structural VAR. Finally, it estimates the quantile VAR model for the euro area and performs a stress testing exercise and the counterfactual analysis before Lehman’s bankruptcy, before presenting the conclusions. Unlike standard VAR, which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. The authors show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive structural system. The model is estimated using real and financial variables. The dynamic properties of the system change across quantiles. This is relevant for stress testing exercises, whose goal is to forecast the tail behavior of the economy when hit by large financial and real shocks.

    Unlike OLS VAR, quantile VAR models each quantile of the distribution. This provides the natural modeling environment to design particular stress scenarios and test the impact that they have on the economy. A stress scenario is just a sequence of tail quantile shocks, which can be chosen arbitrarily by the policy maker or calibrated to mimic previous crisis episodes. The authors find the presence of strong asymmetries in the transmission of financial shocks in the euro area, with negative financial shocks being particularly harmful when coupled with negative real shocks. By modeling the average interaction between the random variables, OLS VAR models miss most of these detrimental interactions.

     

    Related Link: Working Paper (PDF)

    Keywords: Europe, EU, Banking, Insurance, Stress Testing, Modeling, Quantile VAR Model, ECB

    Featured Experts
    Related Articles
    News

    BoE Consults on Approach to Setting MREL, Publishes Bail-In Guidance

    The Bank of England (BoE) published a consultation paper on approach to setting minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL), an operational guide on executing bail-in, and a statement from the Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden.

    July 22, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EBA Seeks Views on Proportionality Assessment Methodology

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) is seeking preliminary input on standardization of the proportionality assessment methodology for credit institutions and investment firms.

    July 22, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    US Agencies Propose Changes to Call Reports and Instructions

    Certain regulatory authorities in the US are extending period for completion of the review of certain residential mortgage provisions and for publication of notice disclosing the determination of this review until December 20, 2021.

    July 22, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    PRA Finalizes Rulebook Definition of Higher Paid Material Risk-Taker

    The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) published the policy statement PS18/21, which introduces an amendment in the definition of "higher paid material risk taker" in the Remuneration Part of the PRA Rulebook.

    July 21, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EBA Examines Asset Encumbrance in Banking Sector

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) published its annual report on asset encumbrance in banking sector.

    July 21, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    EBA Publishes Methodological Guide to Mystery Shopping

    The European Banking Authority (EBA) published a methodological guide to mystery shopping.

    July 21, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    APRA Issues Update on Capital Reform Policy Settings for Banks

    The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) released a letter to authorized deposit-taking institutions to provide an update on key policy settings for the capital framework reforms, which will come into effect from January 01, 2023.

    July 21, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    CPMI-IOSCO Assess Continuity Planning of Market Infrastructures

    The Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) published a report that assesses the business continuity planning activities of financial market infrastructures or FMIs.

    July 21, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    BoE Announces Changes to Validation Rules for Form BTL

    The Bank of England (BoE) published questions and answers (Q&A) on OSCA to BEEDS migration for statistical reporting as well a presentation from the project overview session held with statistical reporters.

    July 20, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    News

    BCBS Proposes Changes to Process for Reviewing G-SIB Methodology

    The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) is consulting on a technical amendment to the Basel Framework to reflect a new process reviewing the global systemically important bank (G-SIB) assessment methodology.

    July 20, 2021 WebPage Regulatory News
    RESULTS 1 - 10 OF 7281