BIS Issues Paper on Measuring Contagion Risk in International Banking
BIS published a working paper on measuring contagion risk in international banking. In the paper, the authors propose a distress measure for national banking systems to incorporate not only banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, the authors develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of the credit risk or funding risk of a banking system.
The rapid growth of the global financial system over the past couple of decades has increased the importance of properly measuring contagion risk. This is true not only from a financial stability point of view, but also from a macroeconomic perspective, as financial crises tend to have significant and persistent negative effects on economic activity. Additionally, the increased interconnectedness and complexity of the global banking system have made that task extremely challenging. A novel methodology for measuring contagion risk in international banking has been proposed in the paper.
The empirical analysis suggests that the measure generated using the novel methodology predicts CDS spreads better than an alternative measure based on (unadjusted) past values of CDS spreads. This is the case, especially during crisis times, when the non-linear network effects tend to be more important. The methodology can be rather useful for policymakers, as it gives an early warning measure of a national banking system’s distress levels, which incorporates information on its foreign exposures. The measure can also be extended to any multi-layer financial network, such as an interbank network. Furthermore, the methodology that has been proposed could potentially be utilized in a bottom-up stress test. More precisely, the proposed methodology could generate estimates of the expected losses of an institution, while incorporating all relevant information on (direct and indirect) exposures, linkages, and contagion probabilities.
Related Link: Working Paper
Keywords: International, Banking, Securities, Contagion Risk, CDS, Credit Risk, Stress Testing, Research, Swaps, BIS
Featured Experts
Metin Epözdemir
Metin Epözdemir helps European and African banks with design and implementation of credit risk, stress testing, capital management, and credit loss accounting solutions.
Emil Lopez
Credit risk modeling advisor; IFRS 9 researcher; data quality and risk reporting manager
James Partridge
Credit analytics expert helping clients understand, develop, and implement credit models for origination, monitoring, and regulatory reporting.
Previous Article
MAS Guidelines on Risk Mitigation Requirements for OTC DerivativesRelated Articles
PRA and FPC Finalize Changes to Leverage Ratio Framework in UK
The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) published the final policy statement PS21/21 on the leverage ratio framework in the UK. PS21/21, which sets out the final policy of both the Financial Policy Committee (FPC) and PRA
CFPB Proposes Rule on Small Business Lending Data Collection
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) proposed to amend Regulation B to implement changes to the Equal Credit Opportunity Act (ECOA) under Section 1071 of the Dodd-Frank Act.
PRA Decides to Maintain O-SII Buffers for Another Year
The Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) decided to maintain, at the 2019 levels, the buffer rates for the Other Systemically Important Institutions (O-SII) for another year, with no new rates to be set until December 2023.
FSB Report Assesses Implementation of Recommendations on Stablecoins
The Financial Stability Board (FSB) published a progress report on implementation of its high-level recommendations for the regulation, supervision, and oversight of global stablecoin arrangements.
APRA Updates Loan Serviceability Expectations for Home Lending
In a letter to the authorized deposit taking institutions, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) announced an increase in the minimum interest rate buffer it expects banks to use when assessing the serviceability of home loan applications.
CPMI and IOSCO Consult on Guidance on Stablecoin Arrangements
The Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) are consulting on the preliminary guidance that clarifies that stablecoin arrangements should observe international standards for payment, clearing, and settlement systems.
EBA and EIOPA Set Out Work Priorities for 2022
The European Banking Authority (EBA) and the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) have set out their respective work priorities for 2022.
MFSA Issues Reporting Updates and Guidance for Banks
The Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA) updated the guidelines on supervisory reporting requirements under the reporting framework 3.0, in addition to the reporting module on leverage under the common reporting (COREP) framework.
EC Publishes Decision on List of Equivalent Third Countries Under CRR
The European Commission (EC) published the Implementing Decision 2021/1753 on the equivalence of supervisory and regulatory requirements of certain third countries and territories for the purposes of the treatment of exposures, in accordance with the Capital Requirements Regulation or CRR (575/2013).
EC Rule on Contractual Recognition of Write-Down and Conversion Powers
EC published the Implementing Regulation 2021/1751, which lays down implementing technical standards on uniform formats and templates for notification of determination of the impracticability of including contractual recognition of write-down and conversion powers.
