BIS published a working paper on measuring contagion risk in international banking. In the paper, the authors propose a distress measure for national banking systems to incorporate not only banks’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads, but also how they interact with the rest of the global financial system via multiple linkage types. The measure is based on a tensor decomposition method that extracts an adjacency matrix from a multi-layer network, measured using banks’ foreign exposures obtained from the BIS international banking statistics. Based on this adjacency matrix, the authors develop a new network centrality measure that can be interpreted in terms of the credit risk or funding risk of a banking system.
The rapid growth of the global financial system over the past couple of decades has increased the importance of properly measuring contagion risk. This is true not only from a financial stability point of view, but also from a macroeconomic perspective, as financial crises tend to have significant and persistent negative effects on economic activity. Additionally, the increased interconnectedness and complexity of the global banking system have made that task extremely challenging. A novel methodology for measuring contagion risk in international banking has been proposed in the paper.
The empirical analysis suggests that the measure generated using the novel methodology predicts CDS spreads better than an alternative measure based on (unadjusted) past values of CDS spreads. This is the case, especially during crisis times, when the non-linear network effects tend to be more important. The methodology can be rather useful for policymakers, as it gives an early warning measure of a national banking system’s distress levels, which incorporates information on its foreign exposures. The measure can also be extended to any multi-layer financial network, such as an interbank network. Furthermore, the methodology that has been proposed could potentially be utilized in a bottom-up stress test. More precisely, the proposed methodology could generate estimates of the expected losses of an institution, while incorporating all relevant information on (direct and indirect) exposures, linkages, and contagion probabilities.
Related Link: Working Paper
Keywords: International, Banking, Securities, Contagion Risk, CDS, Credit Risk, Stress Testing, Research, Swaps, BIS
Previous ArticleMAS and Bank of Canada Run Trial on Cross-Border Payments Using DLT
HKMA has published a circular that sets out the regulatory and reporting treatment for loans that participating authorized institutions may grant to eligible borrowers under the 100% Personal Loan Guarantee Scheme.
ECB published the results of the assessment of internal models that banks use to calculate risk-weighted assets for credit, market, and counterparty credit risks.
PRA published a statement on the regulatory treatment of retail residential mortgage loans under the Mortgage Guarantee Scheme, or MGS.
FCA is consulting, via CP21/7, on the second phase of proposed rules to introduce the UK Investment Firm Prudential Regime (IFPR).
HM Treasury and BoE announced the joint creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) Taskforce to coordinate the exploration of a potential central bank digital currency in UK.
EIOPA published an opinion to set out its expectations on the supervision of the integration of climate change risk scenarios by insurers in their Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA).
EC published the Implementing Regulation 2021/622 that lays down implementing technical standards for reporting of the minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL).
BCBS has set out the strategic work priorities, as part of its the work program for 2021-22.
Bundesbank published two circulars on AnaCredit reporting requirements. Circular 27/2021 covers changes to the reporting of branches, additional attributes to be reported for investment funds from August 01, 2021, and updates to the list of international organizations.
PRA published the policy statement PS8/21, which contains the final supervisory statement SS3/21 on the PRA approach to supervision of the new and growing non-systemic banks in UK.